This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks: With the start of the new season, there aren't yet reliable statistics pointing us toward, or away from, any one hot or cold team. Personnel movement makes last season's data as useful as an old car-mounted GPS system – it's better than nothing, but doesn't hold a candle to Google Maps on your phone. So, instead, we turn to what we know – the Chicago Bulls. Last season's leaders in opponent points per game are now healthier than they were at almost any point during the 2013-14 campaign. They replaced Carlos Boozer with Pau Gasol – a huge improvement. The team is rested and (mostly) healthy, but Jimmy Butler will not play Wednesday. I wouldn't bet against a Tom Thibodeau defense.
Offenses to Use
Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers: While last season's stats should be taken with plenty of salt, in the case of the 76ers, that's because last season's numbers might paint them in an unreasonably favorable light. Sure, the 76ers boasted the worst defense in the league last year, but with Thaddeus Young and Spencer Hawes gone, and Michael Carter-Williams recovering from a shoulder injury, they have probably gotten worse. Nerlens Noel and K.J. McDaniels could very well become defensive studs when they reach their primes, but for now, they're young and undisciplined. It's unclear who will lead the way for the Pacers now that Lance Stephenson is in Charlotte and Paul George is injured, but whoever gets minutes for the Pacers should have plenty of chances Wednesday to put up stats. Note: David West, the most logical next-man-up to lead the offense, will miss Wednesday's game.
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns: One of 2013-14's most exciting offenses takes on last season's second-worst defense. Last season's Lakers were so bad, in fact, that they allowed only 0.7 points per game fewer than the obviously-tanking-from-day-one 76ers. Both the Lakers and Suns underwent significant offseason changes. The Suns lost heavily-used stretch-4 Channing Frye and traded for Isaiah Thomas. The Lakers signed Jeremy Lin, drafted highly-touted Julius Randle, and were the other team in the aforementioned Boozer-Gasol transfer (though the big men swapped cities, they did so through amnesty/waivers and free agency, it was not a planned trade). Losing Frye hurts the Suns, but if the Morris twins (Markieff and Marcus) continue their development as the team is hoping, then the loss can be offset. Thomas is a talented acquisition, especially offensively, though it is hard to know how the team will manage his minutes alongside fellow guards Eric Beldsoe and Goran Dragic. For the Lakers, the biggest difference from last year would have been Randle, who was injured Tuesday night, and it's hard to imagine how the team can avoid feeling demoralized at his loss. Tread cautiously with the Suns' guards, but feel confident in the team's overall ability to produce at home on their opening night.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards
Second game of a back-to-back: Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
If you've never played on DraftKings.com before, we recommend reading our Daily Fantasy Basketball 101: How to Win on DraftKings strategy article.
Want to play in a $1,000,000 daily NBA contest? For a limited time you can get free entry into a DraftKings $1,000,000 qualifier with a first time deposit. Check it out.
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC (at POR) PG, ($10,400): I usually try to avoid players who cost more than about $9,000, since the production required to justify the cost becomes so steep. But with Kevin Durant and Reggie Jackson on the sideline, the Thunder will rely on Westbrook to carry a major burden. Westbrook has the ability to rack up stats in every category, and without Durant and Jackson he will have almost no reason to stop shooting. Starting alongside him and Serge Ibaka will be sophomore Steven Adams (see both listed in the "other suggestions" sections below), and some combination of Andre Roberson, Jeremy Lamb, and Perry Jones. With a full slate of games Wednesday there are discounts available to offset Westbrook's cost.
Other suggestions: Tony Wroten, PHI (at IND), PG, ($4,500); Norris Cole, MIA (vs WAS), PG, ($4,200); Kirk Hinrich, CHI (at NY), PG, ($3,600)
Shooting Guard
Kyle Korver, ATL (at TOR), SF, ($5,100): It is understandable that DraftKings would start the season with a salary that projects decreased productivity from a 33-year-old, but Korver is no ordinary 33-year-old. Few (if any) 32-year-old 11-year veterans set career highs in assists and field goal percentage, while only barely missing career marks in points (second best season, missed by 2.4), rebounds (second by 0.6), steals (second by 0.3), and three pointers made (second by 0.2). He has no obvious competition for court time, and, despite his age, has continued to improve in recent years. Though I don't place much stock in the preseason, it's worth noting that Korver has scored 15 or more points and hit three or more three pointers in four of his last five appearances.
Other suggestions: Tony Snell, CHI (at NY), SG, ($3,000)
Small Forward
Mike Dunleavy, CHI (at NY), SF, ($4,400): With Jimmy Butler out of the lineup, Dunleavy should carry a little more of the scoring load on the wing Wednesday.
Doug McDermott, CHI (at NY), SF, ($3,300): Often the best values in daily games are players whose salaries were set before the man above them on the depth chart got scratched. Thus is the case with this pair of Chicago small forwards after today's announcement that "game-time decision" Jimmy Butler will miss Wednesday's game (and the next two-four weeks, for those playing in season-long leagues). Butler is usually classified as a shooting guard, but he is almost exactly the same size as Dunleavy and McDermott – it is probably more accurate to describe all three of them simply as "wings". With Butler gone the Bulls will need more from Dunleavy, who is already a starter, and new court time should open up for McDermott. If you are unconvinced that McDermott (21 minutes per game in his two preseason games without Butler) is the primary minutes recipient following Butler's absence, then check out Tony Snell or Kirk Hinrich (22.5 and 23.5 minutes per game during their last two preseason games without Butler, respectively) from the "other suggestions" areas above.
Other suggestions: Evan Turner, BOS (vs BKN), SF, ($3,600)
Power Forward
Carlos Boozer, LAL (at PHO), PF, ($7,000): Boozer's only threat for minutes, rookie Julius Randle, is now injured. The Lakers lost by 18 on opening night, which helped to limit the entire starting lineup's minutes (Kobe Bryant and Jeremy Lin led the way with 29 minutes, Boozer was third with 28). Despite the decreased usage, Boozer still managed 17 points, seven rebounds, two assists, and 30.75 total fantasy points. Granted, for $7,000 we'd prefer to see a player get north of 35 fantasy points, but with a few extra minutes in a more up-tempo game Boozer should have opportunity to reach that mark. And, for those interested in the psychological angle: a big onus now falls to the newly-acquired veteran, who came to a big media market with playoff aspirations, to show this young* team that it can win despite game one's disheartening events (Randle's injury, losing by 18).
*The Lakers' average age is 27.9, one year older than the league average of 26.9. But the Lakers' figure is heavily inflated by 36-year-old Bryant and 40-year-old Steve Nash (back), who is out for the year and is the oldest player in the league. At 32, Boozer is the next oldest, and 8 of the remaining 12 players are 26 or younger.
Other suggestions: Serge Ibaka, OKC (at POR), PF, ($7,500); Luis Scola, IND (vs PHI), PF, ($4,500); Jared Sullinger, BOS (vs BKN), PF, (6,600)
Center
Marc Gasol, MEM (vs MIN), C, ($7,800): Who, exactly, is going to guard the perennially underrated Gasol? Timberwolves' starting center Nik Pekovic has always been a better player on offense than defense. Starting power forward Thaddeus Young is five inches shorter and 45 pounds lighter than Gasol, and he should be plenty busy covering the shorter, though similarly hefty and challenging Zach Randolph. Backup center sophomore Gorgui Dieng was a nice story late last season, but Gasol is probably out of his league. Even against a bigger and/or better defensive frontcourt $7,800 seems like a bargain for this former all-star.
Other suggestions: Steven Adams, OKC (at POR), C, ($3,500)
INJURY REPORT
For a full list of injuries and notes, visit our Injury Updates page.
Out
Jeff Taylor (Achilles)
Jodie Meeks (back)
Greg Monroe (suspension)
George Hill (knee)
C.J. Watson (foot)
David West (ankle)
Paul George (leg)
Wayne Ellington (concussion)
Ryan Kelly (hamstring)
Julius Randle (leg)
Nick Young (thumb)
Steve Nash (back)
Nick Calathes (suspension)
Josh McRoberts (toe)
Damien Inglis (foot)
Johnny O'Bryant (knee)
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring)
Kevin Durant (foot)
Grant Jerrett (ankle)
Mitch McGary (foot)
Anthony Morrow (knee)
Michael Carter-Williams (shoulder)
Joel Embiid (foot)
Jerami Grant (ankle)
Jason Richardson (foot)
P.J. Tucker (suspension)
T.J. Warren (thumb)
Meyers Leonard (illness)
Bradley Beal (wrist)
DeJuan Blair (suspension)
Nene Hilario (suspension)
Martell Webster (back)
Game-Time Decision
Vitor Faverani (knee) is out for 6-8 weeks following surgery.
Rajon Rondo (hand) is a game-time decision, he has indicated that the final call will probably not be made until after 4:30pm today.
Brook Lopez (foot) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game.
Markel Brown (illness) has been ruled out for Wednesday's game.
Kevin Garnett (illness) will be a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Mirza Teletovic (ankle) will be a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Jimmy Butler (thumb) is out for 2-4 weeks.
Gerald Henderson (hamstring) is expected to play in Wednesday's game.
Noah Vonleh (hernia) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game, but is unlikely to play even if healthy.
Kemba Walker (foot) is expected to play in Wednesday's game.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) is expected to start Wednesday's game.
Luigi Datome (knee) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Brandon Jennings (Achilles) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
David Lee (hamstring) is doubtful for Wednesday's game.
Shaun Livingston (toe) is doubtful for Wednesday's game.
Brandon Rush (back) is questionable for Wednesday's game.
Clint Capela (groin) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Rodney Stuckey (foot) is expected to play in Wednesday's game.
Vince Carter (ankle) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Courtney Lee (ankle) is a game-time decision for Wednesday's game.
Reggie Jackson (ankle) will miss at least the first two games of the season.
