NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we are again using grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Cody Bellinger would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Dario AgrazalPITSPE147
Mike FoltynewiczATLSPC/D2711
Kyle FreelandCOLSPD015
Mitch KellerPITSPC159
Daniel Ponce de LeonSTLSPD147
Kevin GausmanATLSPD015
Gio GonzalezMILSPD147
Rich HillLARPC/D147
Alex Wood

This is our weekly look at National League free agents. We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we are again using grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Cody Bellinger would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Dario AgrazalPITSPE147
Mike FoltynewiczATLSPC/D2711
Kyle FreelandCOLSPD015
Mitch KellerPITSPC159
Daniel Ponce de LeonSTLSPD147
Kevin GausmanATLSPD015
Gio GonzalezMILSPD147
Rich HillLARPC/D147
Alex WoodCINSPD015
Andres MunozSDRPD015
Anthony SwarzakATLRPD2711
Jorge AlfaroMIACD511Owned
Elias DiazPITCD3914
Jacob StallingsPITCENo15
Andrew KniznerSTLCE015
Matt WietersSTLCD2711
Jesus AguilarMIL1BD3914
Adam FrazierPIT2BD51118
Maikel FrancoPHI3BD1222Owned
Colin MoranPIT3BD1525Owned
Martin PradoMIA3BENo15
Tyler SaladinoMILSSE147
Adam HaseleyPHIOFDNoNo3
Ender InciarteATLOFENo15
Travis JankowskiSDOFD2711
Brandon NimmoNYMOFD015
A.J. PollockLAOFC182838

STARTING PITCHER

Dario Agrazal, Pirates: Agrazal, profiled last week when he was called up to start in place of Trevor Williams after he placed on the paternity list, gets another mention as he will remain in the Pirates' rotation for at least one more turn. He hasn't yielded more than two earned runs in any of his three starts and is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, albeit with just seven strikeouts in 16 innings. Agrazal likely should make several more starts with Steven Brault on the IL with a left shoulder strain that may keep him out a few weeks. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

Mike Foltynewicz, Braves: Folty looked to have his long-awaited coming out party last season, posting a 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 202:68 K:BB in 183 innings. However, as we noted in our pre-season outlook, advanced metrics showed some probable signs of decline this season based on his .251 BABIP being artificially low according to batted-ball and Statcast data. Foltynewicz didn't just fade but he cratered earlier this season, seeing his 27.2 percent strikeout rate fall to 19.2 percent this season. His ERA also spiked to 6.37, earning him a trip to the minors. He is working on regaining the bite to his slider; if that happens – which, to date, has yet to occur – a promotion could occur quickly. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (early spec bid) 

Kyle Freeland, Rockies: Freeland, like Foltynewicz, took a major step forward last season by posting a surprising 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 173:70 K:BB in 202.1 innings. Like Folty, the advanced metrics predicted a decline, but that dropoff was more precipitous than expected. Freeland was sent to the minors in late May after recording a 7.13 ERA in 12 starts. His minor-league numbers haven't proved much better, as he posted an 8.80 ERA over six starts. Despite those poor numbers and coming off a solid outing in his last minors start, Freeland was promoted to start Saturday against Cincinnati. He allowed five runs on nine hits with three strikeouts in four innings, so it remains to be seen if he will stay in the rotation. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (up if a believer)

Mitch Keller, Pirates – Keller, the Pirates' top pitching prospect, has struggled in his three starts in the majors but remains a premier prospect. He has been excellent in three of his four starts for Triple-A Indianapolis since getting sent back down after his last outing for Pittsburgh. Keller now owns a 3.07 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 96:31 K:BB through 82 innings with Indianapolis, He is still likely to get another chance this year thanks to his mid-90s fastball, curveball and developing slider/cutter, though most of his value will be in 2020 and beyond. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9 (up in keeper leagues)

Daniel Ponce de Leon, Cardinals: Ponce de Leon has excelled in any role manager Mike Shildt has utilized him. Called upon to make a spot start Friday, Ponce de Leon allowed just one run on three hits over 6.2 innings. Ponce de Leon now boasts a 1.99 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 38:11 K:BB through 31.2 big-league innings this season and will be called upon to make another start Wednesday. His shelf life in the Cardinals rotation may be limited with Adam Wainwright (back) starting Sunday. But if he pitches well again, Michael Wacha could be the odd man out. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

Injury activations/updates

Kevin Gausman, Braves: Gausman, out since June 11 with plantar fasciitis in his right foot and sidelined since his May 27 start with a dead arm, advanced his rehab to Double-A Mississippi on Thursday after making his first rehab start for High-A Florida the previous week. Prior to being sidelined, Gausman struggled by going 2-5 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.51 WHIP but did manage a 64:24 K:BB in 62.1 innings. After coming over from Baltimore to Atlanta, he registered a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP despite fanning just 44 in 59.2 innings. Once healthy, there is no guarantee that Gausman regains his rotation spot, as he and Mike Foltynewicz might be battling for the open spot with Dallas Keuchel filling one spot. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (early spec return bid)

Gio Gonzalez, Brewers: Gonzalez, sidelined since his May 27 start with a dead arm, began a rehab assignment with High-A Carolina on Wednesday. He allowed two runs on four hits with a pair of strikeouts in two innings of work and will make a second rehab appearance Monday with Triple-A San Antonio. Due to the length of time Gonzalez has been out, he is expected to require several rehab starts to build back his arm strength before returning to the big leagues. When that does occur, Gonzalez could replace Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson or Adrian Houser in the Milwaukee rotation. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (early spec return bid)

Rich Hill, Dodgers: Hill, sidelined since Jun. 20 with a strained flexor tendon, will resume throwing this week. That resumption is in line with the expected 3-to-4 week timeframe given when he was first injured. Hill is a long way from rejoining the Dodgers and still could miss the remainder of the season. But for those with an option roster or IL space - especially those who have playoffs in their leagues - you could do worse than stashing Hill and hoping, seeing his numbers when he is healthy. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (early spec return bid)

Alex Wood, Reds: Wood's return from back spasms that has sidelined him since Mar. 28 has been incredibly slow due to several setbacks. But he finally kicked off a rehab stint at Triple-A Louisville last Saturday. Wood tossed 1.1 innings Saturday, throwing 31 pitches, allowing two hits, a walk and an earned run while striking out two. Despite his next rehab start not yet being scheduled, Wood is probably about a month away from rejoining the Reds, where he should slide into the starting rotation - although it's possible he works out of the bullpen based on the time he missed. 12-team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (same early spec return bid, to be upped as he gets closer and if he is to start

RELIEF PITCHER

Andres Munoz, Padres – Munoz was promoted from Triple-A El Paso on Friday. A possible future closer due to his 104 mph fastball, he will likely work in a setup role as long as Kirby Yates is still on the roster. Munoz recorded 58 strikeouts and 18 walks in 35.2 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A after going from rookie ball to Double-A last season. If his slider ever becomes a consistent weapon, watch out. 12 team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (up in leagues that count holds)

Injury activations/updates

Anthony Swarzak, Braves: Swarzak, profiled two weeks prior to hitting the injured list, was activated Friday. Luke Jackson is still entrenched as the Atlanta closer but Swarzak may be next-in-line and is at least in the mix with A.J. Minter if Jackson is replaced. After posting a 5.27 ERA and 1.61 WHIP In Seattle, Swarzak has been brilliant as a Brave by posting a 0.54 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and 20:6 K:BB through 16.2 innings since moving to the NL. He's registered one save to go along with his nine holds, providing value to Atlanta after he struggled the past two seasons. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (saves speculation)

CATCHER

Jorge Alfaro, Marlins: Alfaro closed out his strong first-half performance by going 11-for-26 the last eight days before the break. He posted a .274/.317/.436 line with 10 home runs - matching last year's total - and 30 runs driven in - which is seven shy of the previous year - in 110 fewer at-bats. Alfaro, who came over to Miami as part of the J.T. Realmuto deal, could be in for some form of regression as he's posted an 81:8 K:BB, although he's raised his contact rate by almost six percentage points. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: Owned

Elias Diaz/Jacob Stallings, Pirates: Diaz and Stallings each get a boost in value with the news Francisco Cervelli likely will no longer catch. Diaz, who took over as the starter in late May when Cervelli was sidelined with a concussion, will likely handle the bulk of catching duties with Stallings backing him up. After hitting 10 home runs last season, Diaz has only one this season but slashed .311/.367/.407 in his last 150 plate appearances prior to the All-Star break. However, as we noted in a recent update, Diaz's defense has fallen off. Last year, he compiled a minus-2 DRS. This year, he ranks 68th out of 70 catchers (minimum of 100 innings played) with a minus-11 DRS, trailing both Stallings (plus-4 DRS) and Cervelli (plus-1 DRS). For that reason, Diaz could lose some playing time to Stallings in late-game, defensive situations. Diaz - 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14; Stallings - 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 

Andrew Knizner/Matt Wieters, Cardinals: Knizner was promoted Friday with Yadier Molina landing back on the 10-day IL with residual pain from the right thumb tendon strain suffered in May. One of the best catching prospects in baseball, he was hitting .277/.360/.421 for Triple-A Memphis this season with seven homers and 24 RBI at Triple-A Memphis at the time of his call up. He saw seven at-bats behind Wieters when Molina was sidelined earlier this season and is likely to split time with Molina in 2020 and take over in 2021 as the Cardinals' primary backstop now that Carson Kelly is in Arizona. Wieters has faded after a decent beginning to the season but will likely see most of the time behind the plate while Molina is sidelined, which could be three weeks. Knizner - 12-team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (up in keeper leagues); Wieters - 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (due to Molina being out a few weeks) 

FIRST BASE

Jesus Aguilar, Brewers: Aguilar has endured a disappointing season overall, but entered the All-Star break on a roll by going 6-for-10 with three homers and six RBI versus Pittsburgh. With the big series, he's raised his average to .225, along with eight homers, 32 RBI and 19 runs in 187 at-bats. Maybe this past weekend's performance will be the elixir Aguilar needs to replicate his 2018 first-half numbers, as his early-season struggles may have been a carry forward from his poor second half. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14 (on chance his performance against Pittsburgh spurs him forward)

SECOND BASE 

Adam Frazier, Pirates: Frazier has been red-hot in July, slashing .529/.556/.824 with a home run, 11 runs scored and seven RBI in seven starts. He struggled against southpaws in the past, but his splits this season have been fairly even - although he hits for more power against righties. Frazier is locked in as the starting second baseman for the Bucs with Kevin Newman sliding in for him against certain lefties. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $18

THIRD BASE

Maikel Franco, Phillies: Franco remained hot Saturday by going 2-for-3, including a home run and marking the third multi-hit game during his last four contests. Over his last 15 games, he is slashing .392/.446/.725 with five homers and 11 RBI. The 26-year-old's overall numbers of .239 with 14 home runs and 43 RBI in 84 games reflect his streakiness, but his current hot streak means that he warrants a spot in nearly all lineups. But be prepared to jump when bad Franco returns. 12-team Mixed: $12; 15-team Mixed: $22; 12-team NL: Owned

Colin Moran, Pirates: Moran, profiled almost a month ago, gets another mention as he's made the most of the additional playing that was originally afforded to him when Jung Ho Kang landed on the injured list in mid-May. Heading into the 'second half of the season', he's slashing .294/.335/.480 with 10 homers and 49 RBI in 269 plate appearances. Most of Moran's playing time has come at the hot corner, but he is one appearance shy of 10 at second, which would give eligibility at the keystone in most leagues. For those of you in DFS leagues, he was slashing .350/.392/.567 at home and .242/.281/.402 on the road, so use accordingly there and play the schedule in weekly leagues. In addition, Moran's defense at third has been passable enough to allow his hot bat to remain in the lineup. 12-team Mixed: $15; 15-team Mixed: $25; 12-team NL: Owned

Injury activations/updates

Martin Prado, Marlins: Stop me if you've heard this one before, but Prado is working his way back from an injury. This has become the stock status, as he's been limited to just 142 games the past three seasons due to a variety of ailments. Prado's current injury is a strained hamstring that has sidelined him since Jun. 12 and he kicked off a rehab assignment with High-A Jupiter on Wednesday. When he is finally back, look for him to back up both corner-infield spots. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5

SHORTSTOP

Tyler Saladino, Brewers: Saladino, called up on Jun. 27, started four of the last five games prior to the All-Star Game. Two of those appearances came in left field, while the other pair was at shortstop. Saladino and Orlando Arcia, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury but returned to action when play resumed after the All-Star break, should share shortstop duties moving forward. Arcia struggled at the plate in June, opening the door for Saladino, who hit .288/.375/.568 with 14 home runs and six steals in 264 plate appearances at Triple-A prior to his promotion. Saladino's track record in the majors is nothing to write home about, but he'll get a chance to prove he deserves to remain in the lineup. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

OUTFIELD 

Adam Haseley, Phillies: Haseley was promoted Saturday for his second stint in the majors. The eighth pick in the 2017 draft has made his first two career big-league appearances in early June before promptly straining his left groin. Since Haseley is left-handed, he won't platoon with Jay Bruce in left field. And as Scott Kingery is enjoying a breakout campaign in center and Bryce Harper – another lefty – is in right, Haseley likely will be limited to pinch-hit and spot duty. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3

Injury activations/updates

Ender Inciarte, Braves: Inciarte, out since May 15 with a lower-back strain, began a rehabilitation assignment with High-A Florida last Monday. After going 3-for-18 between High-A and Double-A, he moved his rehab to Triple-A Gwinnett on Thursday. Inciarte began playing nine innings in the outfield Saturday with Gwinnett, the final step before he is activated. He had served as the Braves' primary center fielder prior to getting shut down, but his slump before the injury coupled with the play of Austin Riley since his promotion means he is likely to transition into a fourth-outfielder role once he's back from the IL. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (same as prior)

Travis Jankowski, Padres: Jankowski, out after breaking his wrist in early March, began a rehabilitation assignment with Triple-A El Paso last Tuesday. To date, he has struggled hitting, but has shown a solid eye at the plate and stolen three bases in six contests. Given his lengthy absence, it's likely Jankowski will require the full 20 days allowed for rehabbing position players. When he is ready to return, he could settle in as the Padres' fourth or fifth outfielder, as he is likely behind Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot and Wil Myers. Jankowski should see time at all three outfield positions while providing speed to the lineup, as he stole at least 24 bases two of the last three seasons. His activation could result in Josh Naylor getting sent back to the minors. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11 (same early return bid based on stolen base potential)

Brandon Nimmo, Mets: Nimmo, sidelined since May 21 with a bulging disk in his neck suffered when he crashed into the wall trying to make a catch in April, was shut down from all baseball activities for a month on Jun. 18. He recently began playing catch and ramping up his running, slightly beating that month timeframe. Nimmo, a potential stash candidate,, will need to clear several more hurdles on his rehab and endure no setbacks before being sent for a lengthy rehab assignment. If all goes well, he could be activated in early-to-mid August. When activated, look for Nimmo to see action at all three outfield spots. 12-team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 (very early spec return bid)

A.J. Pollock, Dodgers: Pollock underwent surgery May 2 to have the growth plate and screws removed from his right elbow and then suffered an infection that extended his absence. Now fully healthy, he completed a 13 at-bat rehab assignment at High-A Rancho Cucamonga. Pollock was originally expected to need 40 to 50 at-bats in rehab games before being reinstated, so he may struggle out of the gate after getting activated Friday - although he did hit a home run Saturday. He should regain his role as the team's starting center fielder, though he may not play daily. Alex Verdugo has filled in nicely for Pollock and may see some time in left field with Joc Pederson possibly playing first base, but several timeshares may ensue. 12-team Mixed: $18; 15-team Mixed: $28; 12-team NL: $38 (slightly lowered returned bid due to expectation of initial struggles)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jan Levine
Levine covers baseball and hockey for RotoWire. He is responsible for the weekly NL FAAB column for baseball and the Barometer for hockey. In addition to his column writing, he is master of the NHL cheat sheets. In his spare time, he roots for the Mets and Rangers.
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