Todd's Takes: Not So Dreary, Judging RBI and Bam!

Thursday's takes usually encompass games from Tuesday and Wednesday, but since I covered Tuesday in yesterday's posting, I'm going to pivot to Twitter and some message board threads for discussion fodder. Don't worry, I caught a lot of Wednesday's action, aided by a four-game early slate.

Drury's History Not So Dreary

Brandon Drury has been one of the first half's biggest surprises. He's been playing regularly since opening day, but it took around six weeks before he was trusted as a stalwart in National Fantasy Baseball Championship lineups.

Drury has been a hot-button topic on a couple of message forums I frequent, with most pointing out his poor track record as a reason to be leery of trusting his current level.

I'm guilty as well. Here is my initial projection for Drury, followed by my weekly updates.

Oh wait, I didn't have an initial projection for Drury. Let's try this again. Here are my weekly projections after I added him to my projection set on April 24:

Through last weekend, Drury played in 85 percent of the Reds games, and I projected him for 82 percent the rest of the way, so I caught up with playing time. However, I've let the little black box take care of the rest.

Currently, Drury is hitting .267 with 14 homers. The ROS projection has done a good job adjusting the power, but the batting average still lags. Is this fair, or do I need to adjust my baseline so his rest-of-season batting average improves?

Most projection systems utilize a three-year weighted average. Since 2020 was only 60 games, I'm carrying 2018, albeit with a very low weight. Still, it's there.

Let's used wRC+ as the measuring stick, since it's park neutral and best represents the baseline skill level. Hat tip to Fangraphs for the following:

Of course, the numbers in the minors need to be adjusted for age and level by major league equivalencies (MLE), but things aren't quite as dreary as they appear when focusing on only the MLB numbers in this span:

The aggregate MLB line for this time is .214/.261/.363. The April 24 projection above reflects his MLE, with everything adjusted to The Great American Ballpark (plus for power, neutral for hits).

Something to keep in mind is Drury was around a league-average player in his first couple of seasons with Arizona, and it was later revealed he did so while suffering from migraines, an ailment which derailed his 2018 season with the Yankees. Who's to say, maybe Drury would have followed a different developmental path if not for the migraines?

My takeaway is judging Drury strictly on his sporadic MLB time over the past few seasons could be myopic. He had a decent prospect pedigree and then was influenced by external circumstances, including the pandemic season when he was in process of getting back on track.

While I'm not advocating for Drury to make the All-Star team, I do think it's unfair to use his MLB numbers since 2018 as his baseline and thus expect strong regression in that direction. Sure, anticipating Drury keeps up his current pace, which includes a .333/.383/.600 line in June, is aggressive, but I lean more towards what he's doing than what he did.

SPOILER ALERT: My ROS projection will improve for my next update.

Flying Solo

In the middle of Wednesday night's viewing, this appeared on my Twitter feed, sending me down a couple of rabbit holes:

For those without Twitter, or preferring not to peruse the thread, 56 percent of Aaron Judge's plate appearance have been with the bases empty, but 78 percent of his homers have been solo shots, so either he's been unlucky in that regard or he's being pitched differently with ducks on the pond. To help with that discussion, I posted the following two tables:

Percent Solo HR (minimum 10)

Percent Solo per Lineup Spot

I'll leave the discussion about how Judge is being pitched for others. Digging up and posting the data got me thinking. Why don't we lump RBI into the same lucky/unpredictable bucket as wins? Should we be looking for a better 5x5 category?

Admittedly, it can be argued wins are "luckier" than RBI, and move on. Players like Adam Duvall leading the NL in RBI last season due to a lucky .326/.367/.757 line with runners in scoring position are outliers. 

That's pretty much where I ended up. Yes, RBI have a significant team element beyond just getting hits at the right time (don't get me started on clutch), but it isn't nearly enough to erase the elegance of the stat for fantasy purposes.

Sometime we forget millions of people do this for fun, while thousands play for profit. It's fun to see your player knock home a teammate, be it via a sacrifice fly, groundout or grand slam. It's easy to look up RBI in a box score. While I'll continue my crusade to change wins to innings pitched, RBI can stay. 

Best in the Business

It's no secret; I'm a huge Don Orsillo fan and watch many Padres games for that reason. No one can flip the switch between serious and entertaining like Orsillo, often mixing the two without distracting from the action. Some of his interactions with the late Jerry Remy went viral. It took a bit, but he's reached that level with Mudcat Grant, his San Diego partner. Maybe you consider this silly; I think it's hilarious. His facial expressions are priceless.

Box Score Blitz

• Judge has played more games and blows Yordan Alvarez away in terms of defense, but after yesterday's two-homer game, Alvarez leads Judge in wOBA and wRC+. Carlos Carrasco has been struggling lately, and while there is no indication he's been dealing with a lingering issue, he left Wednesday's start early with a sore lower back and is scheduled for an MRI, though he's traveling with the team.
• Insert dueling Spiderman meme here, with Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios doing the pointing. I'll be honest, I didn't see any of the Blue Jays-White Sox game, and quite frankly haven't seen Giolito pitch lately, so I'm going to make a point of checking him out for next Tuesday's Takes. He has a double dip next week (@LAA, @SF) so I'll also review his ROS projection before the Pitching Rankings are posted on Saturday. As for the game, Ross Stripling took another step towards the circle of trust as Hyun Jin Ryu's replacement while Alejandro Kirk remains on a mission to earn an All-Star berth on merit and not just benefit from the rabid voting from Blue Jays fans.
• Zack Wheeler turned in a rare clunker while Jon Gray brought his June numbers to a 2.64 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 36 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. Joe Barlow collected his 13th save, tied for 10th most in the league.
• Jurickson Profar has the ninth most plate appearances in the league... huh. A .353 OBP after yesterday's 4-for-4 effort warrants the leadoff spot, where he currently resides. Selective endpoint alert: Trent Grisham's 2-for-4 effort brought his line since June 3 to .253/.321/.427 with three homers and two steals. He's available in a handful of 12-team leagues.
• Pablo Lopez continues to shove. He's around 20 innings shy of the point his shoulder began barking last season. Hopefully he's able to call off the dogs. This is not a typo: Jon Berti did not steal a base Wednesday. SPOILER ALERT: He stole third and second (on a delayed steal) Thursday.
• Luis Castillo looked fine, but he still isn't in that zone he finds for large portions of the season. I saw enough to be optimistic he'll get there. Max Muncy, on the other hand, I'm not so sure. I'm usually not critical of broadcasters (Dave O'Brien of NESN/Red Sox being the exception), but I can't let this go without mention. Men on first and second and Trayce Thompson doubled them home. A gentleman paid to add color commentary said, "If there weren't any baserunners, that's a triple all day." HUH?
• The Cubs scored 14 runs, but 10 came off Jerad Eickhoff, so I'm not sure if they count as official stats.
• Here's a quirk from Wednesday's Orioles-Nationals game. Nick Vespi was credited with a save, yet he wasn't the last pitcher in a 7-0 game. He entered the sixth with a 3-0 lead, retired the side, then the Orioles scored four in the bottom of the inning before the game was called. Austin Hays hit for the cycle (here's my excited face). I watched a couple of innings and the ball looked to be flying in Camden Yards (even to left). Then I remembered Patrick Corbin was on the hill for the Nationals.
• Those waiting for the Javier Baez breakout may soon be rewarded. He's been crushing the Red Sox. It's about time Dave Bush gets some recognition for what he's done with the Red Sox staff. Wacha was setting up hitters like a magician. On the other side, Tarik Skubal wasn't as sharp as I've witnessed, but he pounds the zone and is doing a better job altering the batter's eye level than last season.
• I've learned not to make statements like this, but the Rays look vulnerable. That said, they went through a stretch like this last season and got things together. Then again, they're not as deep and have suffered more injuries. Jordan Montgomery gave up more than three runs for the first time this season, but the Yankees got him off the hook with a few late inning tallies.
• Jake McGee blew a rare save opportunity as Camilo Doval was unable after pitching the prior two days. Considering Doval struggled in those two outings, McGee also blew a chance to garner more chances. While neither factored into the decision, Carlos Rodon and Charlie Morton both threw seven stanzas with double-digit punch outs.
• The Guardians have excelled in low-scoring, close affairs. Last night, they won a rare slugfest, outlasting the Twins 11-10. One of the big hits in Cleveland's four-run ninth inning was a double to center by Josh Naylor. While it was no means an easy play, Gilberto Celestino got turned around and the ball fell safely. Maybe Byron Buxton would have caught it, but he was given another maintenance day, which apparently meant he wasn't available as a defensive replacement in a close game.
• Genesis Cabrera was thought to be in the Cardinals' closer mix as manager Oli Marmol stated he wanted to use Giovanny Gallegos in more of a fireman role. It took until Wednesday, but Cabrera finally posted his first save, a two-inning job. It should be noted Gallegos threw two innings in Tuesday's affair.
• Admittedly, I didn't catch very much, but George Kirby looked in control, fanning six over six shutout frames. OK, it was against the Athletics, but still.
• Shohei Ohtani set a new personal high with 13 strikeouts in his eight-inning effort against the Royals. At this point, he could hurl a quality start left-handed and I wouldn't blink an eye.