The Z Files: NL Central Playing Time Preview

This week's trip through the MLB divisions stops in the Midwest. We'll begin in the Windy City, head north for some beer and bratwurst before hanging a left towards the Arch. Our tour continues in the Steel City before ending in the Queen's City. Let's kick off the new year with a look at the playing time questions in the National League Central.

CHICAGO CUBS

Outfield

The position battles will be in center and right field with Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward the main combatants. It's tough to handicap, especially with Joe Madden holding the reins, but this could be the season Zobrist drops back into his super-utility role. If Happ hits, he'll play, though Almora Jr. and Heyward are better defenders. I like Happ's stick, but I can't pay full freight with so many moving parts.

Starting Pitching

This is the main area needing attention with Jake Arrieta and John Lackey hitting free agency. Tyler Chatwood lines up to replace Lackey. Obviously, Wrigley Field is a nice park upgrade for him, but keep in mind the venue increases walks even more than Coors Field, so unless Chatwood can harness his control the transition may not go as swimmingly as many anticipate. Replacing Arrieta is more of a chore with Yu Darvish or a return of the veteran right-hander at the top of the Cubs' wish list. A trade is also possible.

Bullpen

Brandon Morrow was signed, ostensibly to be the closer. The caveat is durability as even working as a reliever, the 43.2 innings he tossed last season were nearly as many as the 49 he totaled the previous two campaigns. This makes Carl Edwards Jr. and Justin Wilson a little more interesting, not to mention the club could still sign or trade for an established ninth-inning stopper. My sense is the Cubs focus on a starter and begin the year with Morrow, then see how things pan out. From a fantasy perspective, I'm happy with Morrow as my second or third closer. If he's my second, I'll handcuff with Edwards Jr. or more likely look for a third-tier closer to spot in if necessary.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Catcher

The Jett Bandy Experience turned out to be a flop, prompting the Brewers to bring in Stephen Vogt to pair with Manny Pina. For a couple of years, Vogt was productive in that role with the Athletics, but look for this to be more of a 50/50 split with Pina playing against all the southpaws while grabbing some at bats with a righty on the hill as well.

Infield

This time last season, Jonathan Villar was all that and a slice of bread. However, after a down 2017, he's not a sure thing to be a regular, though he's the clubhouse leader to play second with Eric Sogard and Hernan Perez in the mix. It wouldn't be shocking to see Villar moved and Perez installed as the regular, but that's mostly a gut call, sensing the Brewers are getting tired of Villar's mental errors in the field.

Outfield

The big question is center field with Lewis Brinson still expected to be the long-term answer. The problem is Keon Broxton is coming off a 20-20-20 season. The last two make him one of only nine players to hit at least 20 homers while swiping 20 bags. The first 20 is for a .220 batting average, costing him a spot on the major-league roster for a spell last season. Steals are at a premium, so Broxton has to be considered in all formats, just don't count on him to be a primary contributor since there's a couple of pathways to less playing time – including another prospect, Brett Phillips, stepping up in the spring. Remember, Phillips held the spot down the stretch last season.

Starting Pitching

Get ready to see Chase Anderson deservedly populate many a sleeper/breakout list when the rest of the industry begins what we've been doing since the World Series ended. It's a shame Jimmy Nelson suffered a right rotator cuff strain and partial anterior labrum tear diving back to first base last summer. He'll be back sometime in 2018, but he won't have a timetable until the spring. The Brewers have brought in a couple of veterans to fill the void in Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo. Chacin will start with Gallardo's role still unclear. Personally, I'd like to see the club break camp with Brent Suter and Brandon Woodruff in the rotation, instead of Gallardo and perhaps Junior Guerra. Injuries will no doubt afford a chance to Suter and Woodruff so even if they don't begin the season as big-league starters, they'll get a chance at some point. Adding Chacin and Gallardo makes it likely Josh Hader remains in the bullpen, which is too bad.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Infield

It feels odd that the only sure thing in terms of position is Paul DeJong at shortstop. Matt Carpenter will play somewhere, but it's unclear if it will be first, second or third. Kolten Wong should claim the keystone gig, but we've been down this road before. Jedd Gyorko will be in the mix at the hot corner. The wild card is Jose Martinez, the first baseman down the stretch last season. Well, the other wild card is a major signing or trade with Josh Donaldson being the name bandied about, though those rumors have cooled. There's too much fuzziness to make an early investment in mixed leagues. NL-only leagues don't usually draft this early, but come March, these are the scenarios I like to target, since all the principals often come at a discount and end up playing more than their cost.

Starting Pitching

As usual, this is a team strength. Miles Mikolas is a stealth signing, fortifying the back end of the Redbirds rotation. Expect Alex Reyes to begin the season in the bullpen, throwing multi-inning outings before being stretched out for a second-half stint as a starter.

Bullpen

There's some quality relievers, just no one to count on to get the last three outs. Expect St. Louis to pursue Greg Holland as a free agent or Alex Colome in a trade. It likely won't happen, but wouldn't it be fun for Reyes to close before being converted back to the rotation, at which point the Cardinals could find someone else to step in.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Catcher

I'm not a doctor, or even the new Doctor, but it can't be good when your primary backstop has a history of concussions dating back to his days in the Yankees system, then had to be put on the 7-day disabled list twice last season. Francisco Cervelli may be decent with the leather, but he's a risky fantasy investment. The issue for fantasy GMs is the Bucs don't have anyone worthy to grab as a speculative ploy.

Infield

Last year's group returns, though the Pirates could look to upgrade Jordy Mercer and David Freese on the left side. There's also some talk of Josh Harrison being included in a deal with Andrew McCutchen or Gerrit Cole. This is a tough club to get a grasp on since they're a tweener, not really contending but not in an all-out rebuild either. Part of me wants to suggest expecting some infield acquisitions, but then why deal Cole and Cutch? It doesn't appear Jung Ho Kang will be returning to the team anytime soon, if at all.

Outfield

You know the deal, on paper the Pirates have one of the better units in the game except McCutchen is getting on in years while Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco haven't yet completely established themselves as fantasy stalwarts, especially Marte. While steals are a coveted commodity, I'm not confident enough to rely on Marte to be my category centerpiece. The x-factor is Austin Meadows. Supposedly, one of the reasons Pittsburgh hasn't pulled the trigger on a Cole deal is they already have Meadows, so Clint Frazier isn't as attractive as he might be to another squad. It's weird, but the only fly-chaser I'm comfortable investing in is McCutchen. He's going to start and play regularly somewhere. If he's dealt, it's likely to a better hitting park and more favorable team context.

Starting Pitching

Cole has been cited a couple of times already. Hopefully, if he's traded, the return will include a replacement since Pittsburgh is thin in that department. They're hoping at least one or even two emerge from Chad Kuhl, Trevor Williams, Steven Brault and highly regarded Tyler Glasnow. I'm not giving up on Glasnow with Kuhl next on my list. There is hope on the farm with Mitch Keller and possibly Tommy John surgery recoveree Nick Kingham. Of the two, look for Kingham to contribute since there's no reason to start the clock on the prized prospect Keller.

CINCINNATI REDS

Catcher

Tucker Barnhart is a nice play since some are still holding out hope Devin Mesoraco can stay healthy. Good luck with that.

Infield

By all accounts, it's when, not if Nick Senzel will make his major-league debut. The 2016 second overall pick is certainly on the fast track. I'm reticent to tag anyone as can't miss, but his bat profiles as a fantasy stud in a few years. Jose Peraza is expected to move to shortstop to replace the departed Zack Cozart, but he'll have to hit since at some point, Eugenio Suarez will be bumped off the hot corner by Senzel. Of course, Peraza could slide back to second where Scooter Gennett is the main competition. There's even a chance Senzel is given a look at second. All told, this renders Peraza a bit of a risk, so be careful counting on him for a large portion of your steals.

Outfield

Billy Hamilton is supposedly being discussed in a deal with the San Francisco Giants which would leave the Reds devoid of a true center fielder. Adam Duvall is a fixture in left, leaving right to Scott Schebler and the emerging Jesse Winker. With or without a Hamilton trade, Winker is a good bet to play regularly, rendering Schebler the risky investment.

Starting Pitching

Luis Castillo is an emerging stud. However, proceed with caution as he's getting the kind of industry love that inflates his stock beyond its true worth. The rest? So many arms, so many injuries. Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be good to go in the spring. Both are talented and have shown promising flashes, but both need to prove they're healthy and can stay that way. Working half their games in The Great American Ballpark doesn't help since both are prone to homers, though keep in mind the venue actually plays neutral for runs, so if they can keep the ball in the yard, they'll be back in play for fantasy. Speaking of homers, there's Homer Bailey. Granted, he's battled injuries since his breakout 2014 campaign, and since then he's posted an ugly 6.39 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. The name I like is Tyler Mahle, a 23-year-old righty that comported himself favorably in a brief second-half stint last season. Robert Stephenson also looked good down the stretch and has a higher ceiling than Mahle.

Next Week: NL West

Previous installments: AL East, AL Central, AL West, NL East