Paul DeJong

DeJong followed up his power outage in 2020 with an equally disappointing 2021 campaign. A .216 BABIP had a lot to do with a bleak .197 batting average, but there were deeper reasons for concern. The most troubling part of DeJong's 2021 profile was a steep drop in average exit velocity, which tumbled to 86.3 mph - eighth percentile in the league. It would be tempting to blame a side injury that landed him on the injured list in mid-May, but that theory falls apart when considering that he was hitting just .177/.277/.371 across 141 plate appearances to begin the season. After splitting time with Edmundo Sosa in the final months of the campaign, and assuming the Cardinals don't make any moves to upgrade the position, DeJong should have the opportunity to earn back the starting role. However, drafting him for anything more than mediocre power with otherwise empty production would be a mistake.

DeJong provided most of his value in his first three big-league seasons by having above-average power for a shortstop, averaging just shy of 25 homers per year. That power collapsed in 2020, as he homered just three times in 45 games. Without the pop, he didn't offer much at the plate, hitting a modest .250/.322/.349, good for a career-low 86 wRC+. Even the positives in his statline -- his average and on-base percentage each represented his best mark since his rookie season -- came with reasons for skepticism, as his BABIP shot up to .340. That seems unlikely to stick next season, as he produced a career-low 7.5% barrel rate and a career-high 21.7 degree launch angle. (Flyballs tend to come with lower BABIPs.) DeJong needs to get nearly all of his power back this season to be an interesting fantasy option, especially as he's now stolen precisely one base in three of his four MLB campaigns.

DeJong is a perfect encapsulation of the 2019 season. He hit 30 HR, scored 97 runs, stole nine bases, and by wRC+, he was exactly league average at 100. Normally a shortstop hitting 30 homers is something to celebrate, yet what DeJong did last year was not that special. He has an odd trend going in that his strikeout rate has improved each of the past three seasons, but his batting average has dropped in each of the past three seasons -- more than 50 points from his rookie year. He laughs at traditional splits because 27 of his 30 homers last year came off right-handed pitching and he had a worse batting average against southpaws. The season DeJong had last year harkens back to an old fantasy favorite -- Tony Batista. Go look up Batista's 2002 season, and then look at the range of outcomes for him after that season. A similar future is in store for DeJong if something doesn't change.

Coming off a surprising rookie season, DeJong's sophomore campaign was a mixed bag. He missed nearly two months after fracturing his left hand via a hit-by-pitch May 17. At the time, DeJong was sporting a reasonable .824 OPS with eight long balls. After his July 6 return, DeJong struggled, failing to hit a homer until July 25, registering a meek .550 OPS in that span. From that point on, DeJong's power returned (11 home runs), but he reached base at a poor 30% clip. DeJong carried over his 2017 elevated flyball rate, while his HR/FB dropped a few points, perhaps a result of the hand injury, though his hard-hit rate remained above average. While his below-average contact rate and low walk rate render DeJong a batting-average liability, there's reason for optimism as his plate skills improved last season and were masked by a low BABIP. DeJong should be the everyday shortstop, and the power isn't a question.

In one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season, DeJong led the Cardinals in home runs and finished second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. A fourth-round selection in 2015, he was largely unheralded in the prospect community, having posted an underwhelming .260/.324/.460 line at the Double-A level in 2016. He garnered little buzz upon his initial promotion to the majors in late May, but DeJong solidified his spot in the everyday lineup and in the three hole in the batting order in less than two months. There are some obvious red flags, namely his 28 percent strikeout rate and 4.7 percent walk rate, but DeJong's ability to get the ball in the air consistently bodes well for his power production moving forward. Speed is not part of the package, but DeJong qualifies at shortstop and second base and the bat is probably a little better than most will give him credit for even after the strong debut.