This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Have you ever wondered how columnists come up with topics? I can't speak for all my colleagues but sometimes it's difficult. Any time you can come up with a series like I just completed, it obviously makes things easier.
Truth be told, I planned on wrapping up the recent comparison of initial expectations to current production by reviewing a list of lessons learned. When I went back over my notes I discovered I'd be using the phrase, "It's a small sample size, but…" a lot. As Tom Tango once said on Twitter, those two things don't belong in the same sentence.
As such, I was at a loss for a topic this week. On weeks I don't have a topic at the ready, I spend some time pontificating. But, since I thought I was set, my mind was elsewhere.
So, I went back over the lists and my notes and unearthed a lesson not needing a full season to manifest. I was struck by the number of surprise hitters on non-competing teams. Here's a partial list: Jorge Soler, Teoscar Hernandez, Jon Jay, Denard Span, Starlin Castro, Christian Villanueva, Matt Davidson and Brian Anderson.
Keep in mind, these aren't just surprise players, but essentially Top-100 hitters, maybe Top-150 overall at the time of the analysis. Some, like Span, Castro, Anderson and Jay were expected to play but were discounted heavily in drafts due to team context. Others like Soler, Hernandez and Davidson were in
Have you ever wondered how columnists come up with topics? I can't speak for all my colleagues but sometimes it's difficult. Any time you can come up with a series like I just completed, it obviously makes things easier.
Truth be told, I planned on wrapping up the recent comparison of initial expectations to current production by reviewing a list of lessons learned. When I went back over my notes I discovered I'd be using the phrase, "It's a small sample size, but…" a lot. As Tom Tango once said on Twitter, those two things don't belong in the same sentence.
As such, I was at a loss for a topic this week. On weeks I don't have a topic at the ready, I spend some time pontificating. But, since I thought I was set, my mind was elsewhere.
So, I went back over the lists and my notes and unearthed a lesson not needing a full season to manifest. I was struck by the number of surprise hitters on non-competing teams. Here's a partial list: Jorge Soler, Teoscar Hernandez, Jon Jay, Denard Span, Starlin Castro, Christian Villanueva, Matt Davidson and Brian Anderson.
Keep in mind, these aren't just surprise players, but essentially Top-100 hitters, maybe Top-150 overall at the time of the analysis. Some, like Span, Castro, Anderson and Jay were expected to play but were discounted heavily in drafts due to team context. Others like Soler, Hernandez and Davidson were in their team's picture, but their chances at meaningful playing time was unclear. Villanueva is the only one on the list coming out of nowhere.
OK, now I have a topic, or so I thought. How about going through all the second-division teams, highlighting hitters to keep an eye on as the season progresses? On paper, this seemed reasonable, but upon further review required significant speculation at a time of the season where most fantasy managers are scratching and clawing to stay afloat. Sure, some may appreciate 10 names to stash, but the majority wants to make sure their squad is in position to benefit from one of these fliers. If I'm breaking out the crystal ball, I'd like the readings to be somewhat actionable.
Then it hit me. While jotting down possible names to track (I really didn't get far), I noticed how many clubs have playing time question, even a little over two months into the season. Granted, there's always a few, but this year it just seems like more than normal. So now, over 400 words into this installment, the subject has become reviewing each team in terms of playing time, mixing in some guys to watch for over the second half. This week the American League will be covered, with the Senior Circuit next week. Because, you know, now I don't have to come up with a fresh topic for another couple weeks.
Baltimore Orioles
Catcher: Chance Sisco was expected to slowly seep into Caleb Joseph's playing time, but with Joseph's early struggles, Sisco has already captured the lead role with Austin Wynns now the backup. That said, as is often the case with young backstops, Sisco's defense is ahead of his hitting, so more at-bats may not be a good thing for your fantasy squad.
Infield: Danny Valencia has solidified the hot corner, though things should get interesting by the end of the month as Tim Beckham is about to embark on a rehab stint. Beckham isn't likely to play every day when he come off the disabled list, as Valencia has earned the right to stay in the lineup. The problem is they're both right-handed swingers, so there isn't a natural platoon. Of course, this could be rendered moot if Manny Machado is dealt as expected, as Beckham could then move to shortstop. Valencia's playing time is safe for now, but I'd be looking for an upgrade as it begins to look tenuous by early to mid-July. Hopefully, if he's on your roster, you've found a suitable replacement for Beckham as he isn't assured of full-time run when he returns.
Outfield: Joey Rickard is a nice player, best utilized in a reserve role with the occasional stint on the lesser side of a platoon. The latter is his likely destination, assuming Colby Rasmus returns by late June or early July. If you're hoping Austin Hays joins the group of promoted prospects, he's going to be in a walking boot for another couple weeks after injuring his ankle in May. It would be surprising to see Hays up before the All-Star break. Anthony Santander isn't crushing it at Double-A, slashing .299/.330/.448 since his mid-May demotion. Unless he really falters, though, Santander is likely to get another audition at the big-league level.
Boston Red Sox
Catcher: Sandy Leon caddies for Chris Sale and Rick Porcello while Christian Vazquez handles the rest. Skipper Alex Cora wants to work Blake Swihart into the more, likely at the expense of Vazquez now and again.
Infield: Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt continue to share the keystone while Dustin Pedroia deals with swelling and soreness in his surgically repaired knee. When (if?) Pedroia returns, look for the veteran to play around four games a week. It will be interesting to see what Boston does with Mitch Moreland the next time they face a southpaw, as Sam Travis was sent back down to Triple-A Pawtucket.
Outfield: Status quo, though Red Sox nation is back to grumbling about the lack of production at the plate from Jackie Bradley Jr. So long as everyone else hits, Bradley Jr.'s spot is safe, though the club will continue to sit him occasionally to give J.D. Martinez a taste of the outfield.
Chicago White Sox
Catcher: Kevan Smith gets all the at-bats versus southpaws and some against righties with Omar Narvaez getting the rest. Keep in mind Welington Castillo won't be playoff eligible. Hmm, maybe that discussion's better suited for the Robinson Cano section when we get there.
Infield: No real battles, Yolmer Sanchez's bat won't play at the hot corner for a contender, but he's stabilized the position. There isn't a burgeoning prospect at that spot on the farm, but that's more of an offseason discussion.
Outfield: Here's where it gets tricky, as the South Siders have been playing musical chairs with their fly-chasers. Currently, lefty-swinging Daniel Palka and Charlie Tilson are playing every day, even against southpaws, while Adam Engel and Trayce Thompson are in a platoon, with Thompson drawing the lefty starters. On the shelf are three guys who could ostensibly be starting. Nicky Delmonico is out with a broken hand, expected to return mid-July. There isn't a timetable for Leury Garcia, though he's reportedly close to a rehab stint, while Avisail Garcia is closest as he's currently on rehab, expected back in a week to 10 days. When he returns, Avisail should step back in, likely sending Engel and Thompson to the bench, though Thompson could platoon with Palka or Tilson. Of the group, Palka is the most interesting, with the power-speed combo so useful in fantasy. His minor-league numbers suggest his plate skills should improve with repetition, though as outlined, there's plenty of options if Palka continues to struggle with contact.
Cleveland Indians
Catcher: Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez continue to hold down the fort. Francisco Mejia was up, but if you blinked you missed it as it was for only one game. Mejia has played backstop for 27 games and 17 in the outfield for Triple-A Columbus. Long term, he's still earmarked for behind the plate.
Infield: Nothing to see here, move along.
Outfield: The outfield, on the other hand, remains a work in progress. Michael Brantley's good health has been a huge boon for the club, helping to mitigate the struggles of Bradley Zimmer, who was initially expected to roam center field. Now on the farm, Zimmer hurt his shoulder taking batting practice. Considering he was sporting a .438 OPS for Columbus, it may be awhile before Zimmer returns. Greg Allen is the primary center fielder with Lonnie Chisenhall playing against all the right-handers. The Tribe haven't faced a southpaw since May 25. They square off with Carlos Rodon on Thursday, with Brandon Guyer and Rajai Davis predictably in the lineup. While Allen is a nice reserve, the club still is counting on Zimmer to figure it out and help them in the second half. The Melky Cabrera era in Cleveland is over before it started, as he's been released.
Detroit Tigers
Catcher: With John Hicks back to playing first base on a regular basis, Grayson Greiner backs up bell cow James McCann.
Infield: As mentioned, Hicks is back at first, likely sharing time with Niko Goodrum. Goodrum isn't playing at the level of the players discussed in the intro, but he's an example of someone being given a chance by a team searching for players able to help down the road. This will be reiterated next drafting season, but the lesson in AL or NL-only leagues is to spend that last buck or two on a player on a lesser team, since they're more likely to find playing time than on a contender. Along those lines, Ronny Rodriguez was recalled, taking the roster spot of Miguel Cabrera. He's likely going to be in a reserve role, but with Goodrum playing more first base, Rodriguez must only outhit Dixon Machado to earn more playing time. Considering Machado has posted a meek .555 OPS with just one steal, it's plausible.
Outfield: Leonys Martin is another example of a player drafted at a discount in the spring because his playing time was unclear. He's taken advantage, benefiting owners who paid single-digit prices with a double-digit return. On the other hand, Mikie Mahtook also qualifies as a player fitting the running theme but he obviously failed to cash in, at least so far. The combination of JaCoby Jones and Rule 5 pickup Victor Reyes are playing in lieu of Mahtook. Prospect Christin Stewart is crushing the International League, slashing .284/.360 /.524 for Triple-A Toledo. His defense is suspect, and Victor Martinez is in the last year of his contract. At some point, the Tigers may opt to sit their struggling designated hitter and see what the 24-year-old kid can do.
Houston Astros
Catcher: Perhaps the most important thing to note is Evan Gattis will almost assuredly be DH-only for fantasy purposes next year. He's only appeared in two games behind the plate. Since Brian McCann's return, the Astros have been using him in a strict platoon with Max Stassi. That said, Houston has faced an inordinate number of southpaws lately, so McCann has seen a lot of pine time. Chances are, when the scenario is reversed, and they square off with a string of right-handers, Stassi will fill in now and again.
Infield: Carlos Correa is back, Houston no longer has a problem.
Outfield: Now that Correa is back and Gattis is raking, it will be curious to see if Marwin Gonzalez works into the outfield rotation, as he's also picked up the pace the past couple of weeks. Tony Kemp and Jake Marisnick have been sharing the playing time left over by George Springer and Josh Reddick. The Astros like the defense Kemp and Marisnick provide, so even with a .996 OPS the past two weeks, Gonzalez's opportunities could be limited to filling in all over the diamond, playing two or three times a week.
Kansas City Royals
Catcher: The Maytag repairman gets more action that Salvador Perez's backup.
Infield: Before the Jon Jay deal, the starters were pretty much set every day, with Hunter Dozier filling in for Lucas Duda at first base. Speaking of which, the hope is Duda embarks on a rehab stint this weekend, but plantar fasciitis can be tricky. With the hole in center created by Jay's departure, Whit Merrifield has been bringing two gloves to the park. When Merrifield is shagging fly balls, Ryan Goins and Ramon Torres have played some infield. The real question is, when will the Royals promote Adelberto Mondesi? The 22-year-old is slashing a tidy .250/.298/.500 for Triple-A Omaha. Back when he was known as Raul in 2016-2017, Mondesi amassed 209 big-league plate appearances, so service time isn't a huge concern. Maybe it's Alcides Escobar's .571 slugging percentage that's keeping the youngster in Omaha. Oh wait, that's his OPS.
Outfield: It was assumed Paulo Orlando would take Jay's spot, and for the most part he has, but with Merrifield playing some outfield, Orlando isn't quite an everyday player. Not that he's anything more than an AL-only roster filler, but Abraham Almonte's playing time has been squeezed with Merrifield playing some outfield.
Los Angeles Angels
Catcher: Martin Maldonado is valued for his defense, leaving current backup Jose Briceno to pick up the scraps. There's a chance Briceno sticks around when Rene Rivera returns, as he has a little pop, but regardless, Maldonado will continue to play a ton.
Infield: Andrelton Simmons is already out and now Zack Cozart could be joining him, as Cozart was removed from Wednesday night's contest after straining his left shoulder diving for a ball on defense. More news should be available by the weekend. Nolan Fontana would be the beneficiary of a DL stint for Cozart, but let's see what happens. Luis Valbuena has been playing third (with Cozart at shortstop) with Simmons out, mainly because Kaleb Cowart is also hurt, Valbuena's been playing every day, not sitting versus southpaws. The Halos have used Shohei Ohtani's injury to use Albert Pujols exclusively at DH, installing Jose Miguel Fernandez at first base. Fernandez should play regularly while Ohtani is out, which could be weeks or the rest of the season.
Outfield: Jabari Blash and Chris Young are auditioning to be Kole Calhoun's platoon partner when Calhoun returns from the disabled list. He's out on rehab now, though the Angels may opt to keep him on it for the maximum as a means to build back his confidence.
Minnesota Twins
Catcher: Mitch Garver and Bobby Wilson are splitting duties, with Garver getting the lion's share. Both are right-handed, so it's a starter-reserve relationship as opposed to a platoon situation.
Infield: The Twins are taking advantage of Joe Mauer's absence to keep Ehire Adrianza's stick in the lineup. The former Giants infielder is approaching career high plate appearances not even halfway through the season. It'll be tough finding Adrianza at-bats once Mauer is back this weekend, but a recent power surge (three homers in his last 30 at-bats) could keep him active a couple times a week, especially versus southpaws, with Logan Morrison or Mauer taking a seat. There's been no talk of it that I'm aware, but Hanley Ramirez seems like he would be a great fit as the right-handed complement at first base and designated hitter.
Outfield: Ryan LaMarre and Jake Cave are platooning in center field while Byron Buxton's toe heals. Cave has the better chance to stick once Buxton returns in late June or early July. That said, he's a lefty swinger, so he doesn't sync up with giving fellow lefties Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario a day off versus a southpaw. That will once again fall to current designated hitter Robbie Grossman, who will lose some DH at-bats when Mauer returns.
New York Yankees
Catcher: Austin Romine has picked up some extra playing time lately while Gary Sanchez grabs a mental break. Sanchez is too good to remain in a rut for much longer.
Infield: Both Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are here to stay. Now that he's healthy, Greg Bird platoons with Tyler Austin at first.
Outfield: Not much to see here either, especially with Jacoby Ellsbury not nearing a return.
Oakland Athletics
Catcher: Jonathan Lucroy remains the main guy. Currently, Josh Phegley is his understudy.
Infield: For the first season in a while, Oakland is running the same four guys out there almost every day. Those waiting for Franklin Barreto to come up for good best hope the club moves Jed Lowrie to a contender, which could happen but isn't a foregone conclusion.
Outfield: Dustin Fowler's emergence has stabilized the outfield, as well as the top of the order. Mark Canha grabs most of the at-bats versus lefty starters, though at some point, Fowler should be given a chance to be an everyday player. Speaking of Canha, he's filling in for Matt Joyce, so perhaps when Joyce is back, Canha will platoon in right, leaving center to Fowler on a regular basis.
Seattle Mariners
Catcher: Mike Zunino has become a workhorse behind the plate, with the occasional off day courtesy of Davis Freitas.
Infield: Dee Gordon has taken over as the everyday second baseman. As alluded to earlier, Cano won't be eligible for the playoffs. Early reports indicate that while Cano will play when he comes back, Gordon will continue to see reps at second to stay sharp. The rest of the infield is set.
Outfield: Initially, Guillermo Heredia was though to be the beneficiary of Gordon moving back to second, but lately, Mitch Haniger has played a lot in center field instead, with Denard Span in left. Heredia continues to play versus southpaws with Ben Gamel, not Span, the odd man out.
Tampa Bay Rays
Catcher: Not only is Wilson Ramos likely to be the Rays' All-Star representative, he deserves to start the Midsummer Classic.
Infield: After a purge and reshuffle, the new-look infield features Matt Duffy staying at third, Willy Adames at shortstop and Jake Bauers at first. Currently, Christian Arroyo and Joey Wendle are sharing second, but expect Daniel Robertson to take over when he's ready to come off the disabled list, likely by the end of the month.
Outfield: Mallex Smith has emerged as the everyday center fielder with Carlos Gomez playing most of the time in right. The rest is a mishmash with Johnny Field and Rob Refsnyder currently splitting duties. Kevin Kiermaier is on rehab, likely return in a week or so. Look for Smith to continue to play nearly every day, with a day off here and there versus southpaws, though he could easily fall into a platoon with Field.
Texas Rangers
Catcher: The club has no choice but to keep running Robison Chirinos and his sub-Mendoza line average out there.
Infield: Elvis Andrus is due back early next week, presenting a conundrum for the Rangers brass. While Jurickson Profar is hitting only .238, he's been productive with 28 of his 54 hits going for extra bases. He's likely to become a Swiss Army knife, playing all over the place and getting in at least two or three games a week. Ronald Guzman is playing every day at first base, serving as another example of a lower-tier club giving a chance to a player a contender might not be able to afford.
Outfield: Profar could see time in the outfield, spelling Nomar Mazara and/or Joey Gallo with a southpaw on the hill.
Toronto Blue Jays
Catcher: Veteran backstop Russell Martin is slashing .171/.315/.316 while 23-year-old prospect Danny Jansen has recorded .309/.417/.485 decimals for Triple-A Buffalo. There's been no chatter of a call-up, but it's not like Luke Maile is the future.
Infield: Troy Tulowitzki says he wants to play this season. I know, you're waiting with bated breath. Josh Donaldson is ramping up activities again. With his primary utility being trade bait, expect the Jays to be extra cautious before he returns. Donaldson's track record is such that suitors should prefer the confidence of seeing him healthy rather than in action as a showcase. Yangervis Solarte will continue to play every day, bouncing between multiple spots. Once Donaldson returns, not only will Gio Urshela head to the bench (or the farm) but one of Aledmys Diaz or Devon Travis will sit in favor of Solarte.
Outfield: Toronto has faced a string of left-handers lately, so it's unclear if they'll continue to play Curtis Granderson with Kevin Pillar, Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk rotating days off. With a relatively small investment in him, it wouldn't be surprising to see Granderson traded or even released.
