The Wheelhouse: Finding Steals, AL Edition

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Updated on February 21, 2017 10:16AM EST

This is the second of two articles looking for potential sources of speed on all 30 MLB rosters. You can view the first part of the series (the National League teams) here.

A few quick reminders.

First, the league average for all 30 MLB teams was 117.9 stolen-base attempts last season. The league's success rate was 71.7 percent.

With the top four teams in stolen-base attempts all residing in the National League last season, steals are understandably more difficult to procure in the American League at the present time, which may guide draft-day strategies for owners playing in AL-only formats.

While the MLB rate of stolen-bases per game remained at 0.52 steals per game (per team) last season, the American League per game rate was 0.47 steals per game (per team) – the lowest rate since 1972.

Teams are listed below in order of stolen bases attempted last season. Average Draft Position (ADP) data was gathered from the NFBC and includes drafts completed by Febuary 19, 2017. Stolen-base totals and success rates listed with each player are from their time spent at the MLB level last season, unless otherwise noted.

Cleveland Indians
2016 SB: 134 | CS: 31 | ATT: 165 | Success Rate: 81.2% (2nd)

This is the second of two articles looking for potential sources of speed on all 30 MLB rosters. You can view the first part of the series (the National League teams) here.

A few quick reminders.

First, the league average for all 30 MLB teams was 117.9 stolen-base attempts last season. The league's success rate was 71.7 percent.

Cleveland Indians
2016 SB: 134 | CS: 31 | ATT: 165 | Success Rate: 81.2% (2nd)

Rajai Davis (43-for-49) brought his wheels to Oakland as a free agent this winter, so the Indians will likely fall closer to the league average in attempts as a team in 2017 since they are not replacing Davis with another speedster. Manager Terry Francona is seemingly comfortable with all of his players picking their spots, as Carlos Santanta (5-for-7) and Mike Napoli (5-for-6) chipped in a handful of steals along with Lonnie Chisenhall (6-for-6) last season. Francisco Lindor had a poor success rate at Triple-A during parts of two seasons with Columbus, but he's now 31-for-38 in the big leagues, and another 15-20 steal season seems likely, but Lindor lacks the top-end speed to take another major leap in the category. Jose Ramirez is very similar in terms of his ability as a runner, making it difficult to see significant improvement.

The most interesting speedsters in Cleveland are likely to begin the season in the minors. Greg Allen finished 2016 at Double-A Akron, but he spent a larger portion of the year at High-A Lynchburg. Between the two levels, the switch-hitting outfielder went 45-for-58 on the basepaths in 129 games. To this point in his development, he's shown the patience necessary to draw walks at good clip, but a jump to Triple-A in May or June will likely be required before a late-season promotion to Cleveland. It's also worth noting that Allen was a sixth-round pick out of San Diego State in 2014, making him slightly older than the typical Double-A prospect. Bradley Zimmer has already spent time at Triple-A, and while his swing-and-miss tendencies make him a batting average risk, he has 20-homer pop and the speed necessary to become a 20-steal threat at the big-league level.

In the short term (think reserve rounds of AL-only), keep an eye on Abraham Almonte and Austin Jackson. Almonte was 8-for-8 as a basestealer in 67 games last season and his defensive ability may trump his lackluster career .249/.296/.384 line in 754 big league plate appearances. Jackson, who hit the 20-steals mark in 2014, is in camp on a minor league deal this spring, but is hardly a lock to make the Opening Day roster.

Kansas City Royals
2016 SB: 121 | CS: 35 | ATT: 156 | Success Rate: 77.6% (4th)

Top Threats to Run
Alcides Escobar – 17-for-21 (80.9%) | ADP: 330
Lorenzo Cain – 14-for-19 (73.7%) | ADP: 127
Raul Mondesi – 9-for-10 (90.0%) (22-for-23 in the minors, 95.7%) | ADP: 386
Paulo Orlando – 14-for-17 (82.4%) | ADP: 488
Billy Burns – 17-for-22 (77.3%) | ADP: 535

Ned Yost has two demands of his roster: speed on the basepaths, and gas in the late innings out of the bullpen. The loss of Jarrod Dyson changes things for Yost and company in 2017, as Terrance Gore offers top-of-the-scale speed, but lacks the hit tool necessary to make a dent against big-league pitching. Billy Burns was a disappointment in Oakland last season before landing in Kansas City following a late-July trade. He's a better bet to hold a 25-man roster spot throughout the season, working with Paulo Orlando as the primary backups to Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Jorge Soler. Burns had five stolen-base attempts in 24 games with the Royals last season, and a full season under Yost's direction should push him toward the 20-25 steals range even as a part-time player. In order to secure regular playing time, Burns will need to outproduce Orlando, whose .284/.309/.418 career line in the big leagues gives him the early edge for the fourth-outfielder role.

Alcides Escobar has fallen short of 20 steals in each of the last two seasons, making it very risky to expect more. With health, Lorenzo Cain should deliver at least 25 steals, but he has the potential fall in the 35-40 range if his 2015 power proves to be an unsustainable peak. The best late target in AL-only leagues will likely be Raul Mondesi, a young, toolsy player with plus-plus speed and a path to secure the starting second-base job despite a meager .185/.231/.281 line in 47 games with the Royals last season. Mondesi may need additional seasoning in the minors, as he played just 14 games at Triple-A Omaha before getting called up one day before his 21st birthday in July. He also lost 50 games in 2016 due to a positive PED test. Mondesi went 17-for-18 in 29 games at Double-A, 5-for-5 in 14 games at Triple-A, and 9-for-10 during his time in Kansas City. He also showed more with the bat at his final minor-league stops before looking overmatched with the Royals.

Houston Astros
2016 SB: 102 | CS: 44 | ATT: 146 | Success Rate: 69.9% (15th)

Jose Altuve versus the field above, which side do you prefer? There is little reason to expect a significant drop-off from Altuve on the basepaths in 2017.

Carlos Correa's stolen-base attempt rate in 2015 (18 in 99 games) pointed toward 25-steal potential over a full season, but it didn't happen. At age-22, it's not out of the question, but it seems more likely that he will provide a boost in pop than a boost in speed. George Springer, on the other hand, should be able to swipe 15-20 bags as the Astros' primary leadoff hitter. With the moves made by the front office this winter, Marwin Gonzalez is likely to lose playing time, and Norichika Aoki is 35 years old, so his struggles last season may be an indication of fewer green lights going forward.

Josh Reddick has finished with 8-11 steals in four of the last five seasons, often with a high success rate. He's unlikely to run more than that, but it may end up being the fourth-best contribution the Astros get on the basepaths this season. Teoscar Hernandez is more interesting than Jake Marisnick, but Hernandez will likely return to the minors to begin the season after posting a 34-for-47 mark between Double-A, Triple-A, and Houston last season.

Texas Rangers
2016 SB: 99 | CS: 36 | ATT: 135 | Success Rate: 73.3% (10th)

Top Threats to Run
Elvis Andrus – 24-for-32 (75.0%) | ADP: 153
Carlos Gomez – 18-for-23 (78.3%) | ADP: 155
Rougned Odor – 14-for-21 (66.7%) | ADP: 40
Delino DeShields Jr. – 8-for-11 (72.7%) | ADP: 528

Ian Desmond's move to Colorado takes away one of the Rangers' top running threats, but a full-season of Carlos Gomez may offset that. Gomez is an extremely difficult player to project for 2017 as he seemingly figured things out again with Texas down the stretch (.284/.362/.543, 8 HR, 5 SB in 33 games) after a miserable calendar year with Houston. Even a 20-20 season from him would generate profit at his current ADP, but 20 homers and 30 steals may still be on the table.

Elvis Andrus has never stolen fewer than 21 bases in a season. At age-28, look for him to deliver another 25-steal season. Quietly, Andrus has hit 15 homers in the previous two seasons combined after he hit 14 from 2010-2014. Delino DeShields Jr. flopped last season as an expected source of 20-25 steals, but he dropped 30 pounds this offseason in preparation for a competition to see playing time in left field for the Rangers. Even if he were to start as the team's primary left fielder, it's hard to imagine much more than a 30-steal contribution.

Minnesota Twins
2016 SB: 91 | CS: 32 | ATT: 123 | Success Rate: 74.0% (8th)

Top Threats to Run
Byron Buxton – 10-for-12 (83.3%) | ADP: 146
Brian Dozier – 18-for-20 (90.0%) | ADP: 33
Danny Santana – 12-for-21 (57.1%) | ADP: 666
Jorge Polanco – 4-for-7 (57.1%) | ADP: 370

The midseason trade of Eduardo Nunez took away one of the Twins' biggest threats to run, but there are a few possible sources of steals on this roster behind the likes of Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier. Between Rochester and Minnesota, Buxton went 17-for-19 last season, while swatting 21 homers across the two levels, with nine of his 11 big-league homers coming in the last 30 games. Even during his late-season surge, Buxton's swing-and-miss tendencies were present, but at age-23, everything might come together for him in 2017. The Twins have little to lose by giving Buxton unlimited green lights, and it's more likely that he'll steal 40 bases than hit 20 homers in Minnesota this season. Dozier continued to run even after his home-run binge in the second half last season, but he turns 30 in May and it would hardly be surprising if he took a small step back toward the 12-15 steal range.

The sleepers are Danny Santana and Jorge Polanco. The former is only interesting if the latter fails to secure his role as the team's starting shortstop to begin the season. Santana is 22-for-31 over 168 games with the Twins over the past two seasons, and he's unlikely to see regular at-bats unless injuries strike. The payoff for owners thinking about Polanco as a late middle-infield filler is more likely to be in the neighborhood of 8-10 bags, as his success rates in the minors were not high enough to portend in an immediate spike in opportunities with regular playing time.

Chicago White Sox
2016 SB: 77 | CS: 36 | ATT: 113 | Success Rate: 68.1% (21st)

Top Threats to Run
Tim Anderson – 10-for-12 (83.3%) | ADP: 161
Charlie Tilson – 15-for-18 (83.3%) at Triple-A | ADP: 394
Todd Frazier – 15-for-20 (75.0%) | ADP: 73
Brett Lawrie – 7-for-10 (70.0%) | ADP: 381

Adam Eaton is gone, opening up a spot in the outfield for Charlie Tilson, but Tilson is currently sidelined by a stress reaction in his foot. The setup could not be better for the 24-year-old, who has a 46-steal season under his belt at Double-A (2015) and minimal competition in the organization for playing time in center field, unless the White Sox opt to shift Yoan Moncada to the position. Non-roster invite Peter Bourjos may secure an Opening Day roster spot if Tilson's ailment lingers through March, but he's 10-for-22 as a part-time player over the past two seasons and no longer has the 20-steal upside owners chased with him a half-decade ago.

Tim Anderson's plate discipline was problematic during his rookie campaign (27.1% K%, 3.0% BB%), and he will have to improve in order to create more opportunities to utilize his speed. New manager Rick Renteria, whose only season as a manager was with the rebuilding 2014 version of the Cubs, gave plenty of green lights that year despite having a roster that was not ideally suited to be aggressive on the basepaths; that willingness to let players run will be particularly useful for Anderson and Tilson. Anderson could finish the season with 30-plus steals even if he's unable to improve much on his .306 OBP from 2016.

Once he gets the call to Chicago, Yoan Moncada should offer up a pro-rated 25-30 steal level of production, but it may take two additional months of seasoning at Triple-A Charlotte before the White Sox give him the nod.

Boston Red Sox
2016 SB: 83 | CS: 24 | ATT: 107 | Success Rate: 77.6% (3rd)

Top Threats to Run
Mookie Betts – 26-for-30 (86.7%) | ADP: 2
Xander Bogaerts – 13-for-17 (76.5%) | ADP: 27
Hanley Ramirez – 9-for-12 (75.0%) | ADP: 78
Jackie Bradley Jr. – 9-for-11 (81.8%) | ADP: 145

Little has changed with the makeup of the Red Sox's roster. By most accounts, John Farrell is comfortable using the running game when it's appropriate to do so, as the contribution outside of Mookie Betts are of the long-tail variety with several players in the 5-10 range and only one other than Betts reaching double digits (Xander Bogaerts). The trade of Yoan Moncada to the White Sox this winter removes one of the organization's biggest threats to become more aggressive at the MLB level. If Betts were to give back some of the home-run gains from 2016, a jump to the 30-steal range seems likely.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2016 SB: 73 | CS: 34 | ATT: 107 | Success Rate: 68.2% (20th)

Top Threats to Run
Mike Trout – 30-for-37 (81.1%) | ADP: 1
Ben Revere – 14-for-19 (73.7%) | ADP: 347
Cameron Maybin – 15-for-21 (71.4%) | ADP: 287
Andrelton Simmons – 10-for-11 (90.9%) | ADP: 363

Mike Trout is on the record this spring saying that he wants to steal 40 bases again. Even if he doesn't, he is the consensus top player on the board. Ben Revere appeared to be in the perfect situation during his final season in Washington, but an early-season oblique strain limited him to 375 plate appearances, and the per-game production was easily the worst of his career. With Trout and Kole Calhoun locking down two of the three spots in the Angels' outfield, Revere and Cameron Maybin will compete for playing time in left. If Revere carves out the large side of a platoon, he should be able to provide a cheap 30-steal season with ease. Unless Andrelton Simmons made significant mechanical adjustments at the plate, it's difficult to put much stock in his .295/.362/.474 run over the final 30 games, which also included three homers and six steals.

Tampa Bay Rays
2016 SB: 60 | CS: 37 | ATT: 97 | Success Rate: 61.9% (28th)

Top Threats to Run
Kevin Kiermaier – 21-for-24 (87.5%) | ADP: 187
Mallex Smith – 16-for-24 (66.7%) | ADP: 355
Steven Souza Jr. – 7-for-13 (53.8%) | ADP: 346
Nick Franklin – 6-for-7 (85.7%) | ADP: 492

With an improved OBP, Kevin Kiermaier reached the 20-steal mark for the first time in his career. He continues to run at an increased rate against big-league batteries, and it's important to note that his production in 2016 came with the limitation of just 105 games played. If the increased walk rate Kiermaier showed last season holds up, he has a shot at 30 steals. Mallex Smith brings another big speed threat to the Rays, but he may be on the outside looking in at an Opening Day roster spot. Smith's opportunities to play may hinge on the health of Kiermaier, Steven Souza, Colby Rasmus, and Corey Dickerson. Nick Franklin's chances of an increased role took a hit with the Rays' decision to re-sign Logan Morrison, which shifts Brad Miller to the keystone.

New York Yankees
2016 SB: 72 | CS: 22 | ATT: 94 | Success Rate: 76.6% (5th)

Top Threats to Run
Jacoby Ellsbury – 20-for-28 (71.4%) | ADP: 250
Brett Gardner – 16-for-20 (80.0%) | ADP: 278
Chase Headley – 8-for-10 (80.0%) | ADP: 440
Didi Gregorius – 7-for-8 (87.5%) | ADP: 251

The Yankees' high success rate as a team last season bodes well for the prospects on the brink of joining the big-league roster over the next year or so (Clint Frazier and Gleyber Torres), but it's difficult to see Jacoby Ellsbury or Brett Gardner, both at age 33, pushing their stolen-base totals higher than the low-20s. Chase Headley has chipped in seven or more steals in three of the last four seasons, with the exception coming in 2015 when he gave owners a donut in the category.

Detroit Tigers
2016 SB: 58 | CS: 29 | ATT: 87 | Success Rate: 66.7% (t-23rd)

Top Threats to Run
Ian Kinsler – 14-for-20 (70.0%) | ADP: 75
Justin Upton – 9-for-13 (69.2%) | ADP: 83
Tyler Collins – 5-for-7 (71.4% at Triple-A & MLB) | ADP: 722
JaCoby Jones – 13-for-18 (72.2% at Double-A & Triple-A) | ADP: 602
Mikie Mahtook – 5-for-7 (71.4% at Triple-A & MLB) | ADP: 711

Ian Kinsler hasn't picked up more than 15 steals in a season since 2012 with the Rangers. Now 34, he may fall slightly in the category. Justin Upton's stolen-base attempts spiked in 2015 during his only season with San Diego, but his first year in Detroit looks much like his 2013 and 2014 campaigns with Atlanta. Keep an eye on the battle for playing time in center field, as one of Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones, or Mikie Mahtook could emerge to make a small contribution in the steals department if any member of the trio becomes the team's regular option at the position.

Seattle Mariners
2016 SB: 56 | CS: 28 | ATT: 84 | Success Rate: 66.7% (t-23rd)

Top Threats to Run
Jean Segura – 33-for-43 (77.6%) | ADP: 52
Jarrod Dyson – 30-for-37 (81.1%) | ADP: 256
Leonys Martin – 24-for-30 (80.0%) | ADP: 239
Mitch Haniger – 8-for-9 (88.9% at Triple-A) | ADP: 402

The makeup of the Mariners' 25-man roster is much more speed-heavy with the trades to acquire Jean Segura and Jarrod Dyson over the winter. Dyson could have a Rajai Davis-type season if the Mariners expand his role beyond his playing time maxes in Kansas City. If Segura gives back some of the home-run power he showed during his only season with the D-backs, he may have a few more opportunities to run. Nevertheless, there seems to be an organizational push to become more aggressive and efficient on the basepaths, with Segura, Dyson, and Leonys Martin leading the way. Mitch Haniger is hardly a burner, but he's shown an ability to carefully pick his spots on the basepaths as a minor league player. His sleeper appeal comes as more of a balanced five-category contributor than a speed-heavy option.

Toronto Blue Jays
2016 SB: 54 | CS: 24 | ATT: 78 | Success Rate: 69.2% (16th)

Melvin Upton and Ezequiel Carrera are competing with Steve Pearce for playing time in left field. Unless the Jays make a trade, or turn to young outfielder Dalton Pompey, Pearce appears to have the inside track to the starting job. As a result, Upton will likely struggle to match the steals total from his resurgent 2016 campaign. Kevin Pillar's defense should keep him on the field regularly as the Jays' primary center fielder, but his 2015 production looks like a career-best line after his disappointing 2016 follow-up. Josh Donaldson's early-spring calf strain may leave the Jays less willing to give him green lights early on this season, and Devon Travis' return from knee surgery may also prevent him from increasing his steals total from the four he delivered in 101 games last season.

Oakland Athletics
2016 SB: 50 | CS: 23 | ATT: 73 | Success Rate: 68.5% (19th)

Top Threats to Run
Rajai Davis – 43-for-49 (87.8%) | ADP: 206
Marcus Semien – 10-for-12 (83.3%) | ADP: 203
Franklin Barreto – 30-for-47 (63.8% at Double-A and Triple-A) | ADP: 504

The A's should be significantly more successful on the basepaths in 2017 with the addition of Rajai Davis. Thanks to the organization's lack of viable alternatives in center field, Davis should see enough playing time to provide another 35-plus steals in his age-36 season. Keep in mind, however, that only three players have reached 35 steals at age-36 or later since the 2000 season (Rickey Henderson, Mark McLemore, and Ichiro – twice). Only nine players have reached that mark since the start of the Expansion Era in 1961 (Brett Butler, Davey Lopes, Lou Brock, Maury Wills, Otis Nixon, and Ozzie Smith and the aforementioned trio).

Marcus Semien's step back in OBP from .310 to .300 last season brings his career line to .246/.302/.412 over 1,548 plate appearances. Unless he draws walks at an increased clip, or begins to put the ball in play more frequently, Semien will be pressed to offer more than a dozen steals. Top prospect Franklin Barreto may be ready for the call to Oakland by midseason, but the middle-infield is crowded with Semien, Jed Lowrie, Chad Pinder, and Joey Wendle all in tow, so the A's have little reason to start Barreto's service time clock since he will begin the season as a 21-year-old with four games of experience at Triple-A.

Baltimore Orioles
2016 SB: 19 | CS: 13 | ATT: 32 | Success Rate: 59.4% (29th)

Top Threats to Run
Manny Machado – 0-for-3 (0.0%) | ADP: 8
Joey Rickard – 4-for-5 (80.0%) | ADP: 733

The Orioles' best threat to steal bases did not steal any in 2016. After a 20-for-28 mark on the basepaths in 2015, Manny Machado received only a handful of opportunities last season, while Baltimore manager Buck Showalter nearly shut down the running game entirely. Most projection systems have Machado delivering fewer than 10 steals in 2017. Joey Rickard is positioned to play on the small side of a platoon, but his 4-for-5 mark last season followed a 20-for-24 success rate between Double-A and Triple-A during his final season in the Rays' system in 2015. Rickard will need an injury to one of the O's primary outfielders to get more than a start or two per week.