The Wheelhouse: Finding Steals, NL Edition

Written by

Updated on February 13, 2017 6:32PM EST

This is the first of two articles looking for potential sources of speed on all 30 MLB rosters.

The league-wide lack of stolen bases on a per-game basis, which remained at 0.52 SB/G (per team) for the second year in a row, has left fantasy owners scrambling to secure their necessary allotment of steals to be competitive in the category.

The league average for all 30 MLB teams was 117.9 stolen-base attempts last season, while the MLB overall success rate was 71.7 percent.

We'll begin in the National League, which features the four most aggressive teams on the basepaths from 2016. The Brewers were the runaway leaders in the stolen-base attempts category, piling up 237 – a whopping 47 more than the second-place Reds at 190. The Padres (170) and Diamondbacks (168) rounded out MLB's top four, and each of those teams finished last season with a success rate better than the league average mark.

Teams are listed below in order of stolen bases attempted last season. Average Draft Position (ADP) data was gathered from the NFBC and includes drafts completed by February 13, 2017. Stolen-base totals and success rates listed with each player are from their time at the MLB level last season, unless otherwise noted.

Milwaukee Brewers
2016 SB: 181 | CS: 56 | ATT: 237 | Success Rate: 76.4% (6th)

Top Threats to Run
Jonathan Villar – 62-for-80 (77.5%) | ADP: 20
Hernan Perez – 34-for-41 (82.9%) | ADP: 167
Keon Broxton – 23-for-27 (85.2%) | ADP:

This is the first of two articles looking for potential sources of speed on all 30 MLB rosters.

The league average for all 30 MLB teams was 117.9 stolen-base attempts last season, while the MLB overall success rate was 71.7 percent.

Milwaukee Brewers
2016 SB: 181 | CS: 56 | ATT: 237 | Success Rate: 76.4% (6th)

Top Threats to Run
Jonathan Villar – 62-for-80 (77.5%) | ADP: 20
Hernan Perez – 34-for-41 (82.9%) | ADP: 167
Keon Broxton – 23-for-27 (85.2%) | ADP: 185
Ryan Braun – 16-for-21 (76.2%) | ADP: 49
Orlando Arcia – 8-for-8 (100%); 15-for-22 at Triple-A | ADP: 256

No team struck out more than the Brewers last season (25.5% K%), but manager Craig Counsell was more aggressive than any manager in the game by a wide margin. There is little reason to think the approach will change. The adjustments to the infield alignment with a full season of Orlando Arcia at shortstop bumps Scooter Gennett to a bench role, but those gains from a team context may be offset by fewer starts from Hernan Perez, who is now in a super utility role with Travis Shaw penciled in to start on the large side of a platoon (if not everyday) at third base and Domingo Santana healthy at the outset of camp. Shaw showed the ability to sneak in the occasional steal during his time in Boston, and the move to Milwaukee could push him into the 8-10 steal range. Eric Thames had a 40-steal season in Korea in 2015, but that number fell to 13 in 2016. Nevertheless, he's a bigger threat to run than 2016 first baseman Chris Carter (3).

Cincinnati Reds
2016 SB: 139 | CS: 51 | ATT: 190 | Success Rate: 73.2% (11th)

Top Threats to Run
Billy Hamilton – 58-for-66 (87.8%) | ADP: 51
Jose Peraza – 21-for-31 (67.7%) | ADP: 136*
Eugenio Suarez – 11-for-16 (68.8%) | ADP: 260
Joey Votto – 8-for-9 (88.9%) | ADP: 23

The Reds finally connected on a deal that sent Brandon Phillips to Atlanta over the weekend, removing questions about where Jose Peraza is going to play in 2017. The starting second base job is Peraza's to lose, so he should get enough playing time approach 40 steals. In addition to the boost for Peraza, the Reds may have room on the 25-man roster for Dilson Herrera. A former Mets farmhand, Herrera had a 23-steal season in the minors in 2014, but he's been a liability on the basepaths between Triple-A and a 31-game taste of the big leagues in the two years since with a 22-for-40 mark at two levels.

*Since the Phillips trade, Peraza's draft position has increased by 30-40 spots in a handful of NFBC drafts.*

San Diego Padres
2016 SB: 125 | CS: 45 | ATT: 170 | Success Rate: 73.5% (9th)

Top Threats to Run
Manuel Margot – 2-for-2; 30-for-41 at Triple-A (73.2%) | ADP: 251
Travis Jankowski – 30-for-42 (71.4%) | ADP: 285
Wil Myers – 28-for-34 (82.4%) | ADP: 60
Luis Sardinas – 4-for-6 (66.7%) | ADP: 576
Alex Dickerson – 5-for-6 (83.3%) | ADP: 386

While Jon Jay's move to the Cubs was one of the less-hyped free-agent signings of the offseason, it cleared the way for Manuel Margot to take over as the Padres' regular center fielder. Acquired from the Red Sox in the Craig Kimbrel deal in November of 2015, the 22-year-old went 30-for-41 on the basepaths in 124 games at Triple-A El Paso. Margot's appeal as a fantasy commodity goes beyond what he can do with his legs, as he may still develop double-digit home-run pop.

Currently, the Padres have four outfielders vying for three spots, while Margot is the only right-handed bat in a group that also includes Hunter Renfroe, Alex Dickerson, and Travis Jankowski. Even if he is the fourth outfielder, Jankowski has useful speed for owners in deep mixed leagues, while the most likely scenario points to Jankowski battling Dickerson for regular playing time in left field while Margot and Renfroe cover center and right while being afforded a prolonged opportunity to prove they are big-league ready regulars.

Given Wil Myers' excellent success rate last season and the Padres' continued need to manufacture runs by having an aggressive approach on the basepaths, there is little reason to think Myers will give back more than a handful of steals in 2017 at age 26. One position battle to monitor closely in NL-only formats is at shortstop, where 23-year-old Luis Sardinas is the favorite to win the job over veteran Erick Aybar, who signed to a minor-league deal with San Diegon in early February. Sardinas might be a one-category player, but he could offer a cheap 20-steal season if he comes away with the starting job and finds a way to keep it.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2016 SB: 137 | CS: 31 | ATT: 168 | Success Rate: 81.5% (1st)

The D-backs' shortcomings over the past two seasons were hardly the fault of Chip Hale, but he was replaced by former Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo this offseason. There is uncertainty regarding the approach of any first-time manager, but Lovullo comes from a club in Boston that ranked third in stolen-base success rate (77.6%) and he is now in charge of one that is built to do damage with the running game. Owners frustrated by Paul Goldschmidt's drop in power last season from 33 homers in 2015 to 24 homers were treated to a career-high 32 steals. Few were expecting a step forward from the 21 bags Goldschmidt swiped in 2015, but he cashed in on his .411 OBP and used his legs to accrue added value while also piling up a career-high 106 runs scored. Now 29, Goldschmidt's unconventional aggressiveness for a first baseman makes him difficult to project, but healthier bats in the lineup around him may force opposing pitchers to give him better offerings to drive out of the yard. If that happens, it may chip away at his stolen-base total. In short, don't be surprised if he hits 30 homers again, but steals 20 bases instead of another 30-plus.

A.J. Pollock's return should largely offset the lost of Jean Segura's contributions on the basepaths, and a rebound from Ketel Marte in his new hitter-friendly home park could actually lead Arizona to a slight increase in swipes and attempts in 2017. Marte will compete for playing time at second base with Brandon Drury during spring training. If David Peralta has fully recovered from the wrist injury that limited him to 48 games last season, he's a threat to pick up a large handful of bags after he went 9-for-13 over 149 games in 2015.

Washington Nationals
2016 SB: 121 | CS: 39 | ATT: 160 | Success Rate: 75.6% (7th)

Top Threats to Run
Trea Turner – 33-for-39 (84.6%); 25-for-27 (92.6%, at Triple-A) | ADP: 11
Bryce Harper – 21-for-31 (67.7%) | ADP: 9
Adam Eaton – 14-for-19 (73.7%) | ADP: 127
Anthony Rendon – 12-for-18 (66.7%) | ADP: 89
Michael Taylor – 14-for-17 (82.4%) | ADP: 529
Brian Goodwin – 15-for-18 (83.3%, at Triple-A) | ADP: N/A

Debates about Trea Turner's 2017 value are often centered on where his batting average will fall when last season's .391 BABIP finds his baseline, and whether he can be counted on for anything close to the 20 homers he hit between Triple-A and the big leagues last season. There is no debate about his speed, while his 33-for-39 mark in 73 games with Washington has owners salivating about a possible 60-steal season with at least moderate power, a boatload of runs scored, and a steady batting average.

Harper's first 20-steal season may be difficult for him to repeat, especially if his power pushes back toward 2015 levels. Even though his batting average cratered to .243 last season, he continued to walk at an excellent 17.2 percent clip, and took advantage of those free pass by collecting more steals than he delivered in his previous three seasons combined. Eaton's arrival via trade from the White Sox is interesting, since he's now playing for a team that attempted 47 more steals than his previous one in Chicago. Perhaps working with Nats first base coach Davey Lopes will help Eaton's efficiency, but his career 54-for-81 (66.7%) mark running against big-league batteries should temper expectations for any increase to be a slight one.

Anthony Rendon's 2016 season ended up closely resembling his 2014 breakout, albeit with a slight decrease in stolen-base efficiency. He remains a threat to reach double-digits in the category, but it's important to note that Rendon did not attempt a steal in August or September, and by that point in the season he was no longer being used as the Nats' No. 2 hitter.

If the opportunity to play regularly arises for Michael Taylor or Brian Goodwin, both players have shown an ability to steal bases effectively in the high minors, while Taylor went 14-for-17 despite toting a .278 OBP over 76 games with the Nats last season. Either player may be an injury to Jayson Werth, Eaton, or Harper way from a spike in playing time, unless the Nats are willing to play Adam Lind in left field.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2016 SB: 110 | CS: 45 | ATT: 155 | Success Rate: 71.0%

The Bucs were overwhelmingly a three-man show on the basepaths last season, and there is little reason to expect a big shake-up in 2017 given the lack of changes to the team's depth chart. If moving to right field takes some of the wear-and-tear off of Andrew McCutchen's legs, a small rebound in the speed department could happen, but a return to 2015 (11-for-16) seems more likely than the 20-plus steal seasons we saw from him annually between 2009-2013.

Alen Hanson had back-to-back 35-steal seasons at Triple-A in 2015 and 2016, but his chances of seeing everyday playing time are slim. One early path for Hanson to make the 25-man roster might be disciplinary action from MLB for Jung Ho Kang, who was arrested in South Korea during the offseason for his third DUI-related offense.

Philadelphia Phillies
2016 SB: 96 | CS: 45 | ATT: 141 | Success Rate: 68.1% (22nd)

Top Threats to Run
Odubel Herrera – 25-for-32 (78.1%) | ADP: 120
Cesar Hernandez – 17-for-30 (56.7%) | ADP: 295
Freddy Galvis – 17-for-23 (73.9%) | ADP: 355
Aaron Altherr – 7-for-9 (77.8%) | ADP: 428
Roman Quinn – 5-for-6 (83.3%); 31-for-39 (79.5%, at Double-A) | ADP: 397

There are a few moving parts in place with the Phillies. First, Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis may have to compete for playing time at second base once the organization determines that J.P. Crawford is ready for the big leagues. Crawford went 12-for-19 on the basepaths in 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, and his best season in the minors came as a 19-year-old at Low-A and High-A in 2014 when he swiped 24 bags in 38 attempts between two levels (123 games).

Herrera's improvement in Year 2 with the Phillies included a jump in his walk rate from 5.2 to 9.6 percent, although a significant portion of those gains came in the first half before disappearing as the season progressed. Additionally, he put the ball in play more often, trimming his strikeout rate to 20.4 percent. Getting on base more often, and piling up 656 plate appearances, Herrera finished with 25 steals in 32 attempts, yielding an improvement in his success rate (78.1%) after he checked in at 66.7 percent (16-for-24) as a rookie in 2015.

As long as Howie Kendrick and Michael Saunders are healthy, they are expected to flank Herrera in center field. Kendrick led the Dodgers in steals last season, going 10-for-12 on a team that did not emphasize the running game. Aaron Altherr opens the season as the team's fourth outfielder, but the combination of power and speed he's shown in parts of two years with the Phillies makes him interesting as an endgame target in deeper formats (15-plus team mixers, NL-only leagues). Roman Quinn is also worth monitoring, but he skipped Triple-A for a late-season debut last season and stole five bases in six attempts over 15 games with the Phillies. He will likely begin the season at Lehigh Valley, with the chance of coming up if multiple injuries strike, or if/when the Phillies part ways with Kendrick and Saunders.

San Francisco Giants
2016 SB: 79 | CS: 36 | ATT: 115 | Success Rate: 68.7% (18th)

The Giants deployed Nunez frequently after acquiring him from the Twins last summer, as he attempted 17 steals in 50 games with San Francisco after going 27-for-33 for the Twins. All signs point toward a starter's workload for Nunez, who may have to move around and play in left field on occasion depending on the team's plans for Conor Gillaspie and Jae-Gyun Hwang. Span attempted 11 steals (converting six) in the first two months. After suffering a hip injury during a collision with an outfield wall, Span was less aggressive over the final four months as neck and quad injuries also cost him time during the second half.

Neither Crawford nor Posey seems likely to exceed their previous stolen-base output. The Giants may turn to Jarrett Parker or Gorkys Hernandez on a regular basis in left field. Both players have shown 20-steal production at Triple-A, but neither is guaranteed to remain on the 25-man roster all season if the Giants find an upgrade to cover the spot.

Atlanta Braves
2016 SB: 75 | CS: 34 | ATT: 109 | Success Rate: 68.8% (17th)

The addition of Brandon Phillips provides a secondary threat to run behind likely team steals leader Ender Inciarte. A 30-steal season is the ceiling, while a bump to the low-20 range should come if he can avoid injuries as the Braves' primary leadoff man this season. After a 23-for-26 effort in 2015, Phillps slipped to a 14-for-22 mark in his final season with the Reds. Additionally, he'll move into a home park that is significantly less homer-friendly than Great American Ball Park.

Ozzie Albies is likely blocked with the addition of Phillps, but he collected 30 steals as a 19-year-old between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Look for Albies to take over the keystone to begin 2018, with the potential for a September callup after rosters expand. Swanson's combined 16-for-19 mark between High-A, Double-A, and Atlanta last season offers a better idea of his ceiling than his 3-for-3 mark over his 38 games with the Braves, and it might be prudent to take the "over" on Steamer's projection of nine. It's expected that he'll begin the year hitting second behind Inciarte. The appeal of d'Arnaud is limited to the reserve rounds of NL-only leagues, as he may have a difficult time playing more than he did last season (262 plate appearances). For his career, d'Arnaud is 22-for-28 with 437 plate appearances scattered over parts of four years at the big league level.

Colorado Rockies
2016 SB: 66 | CS: 39 | ATT: 105 | Success Rate: 62.9% (27th)

Blackmon's HR/FB rate spiked to 16.2% last season – his previous high was 10.4% – and he turned that boost into 29 long balls. With the increase in homers, Blackmon's stolen-base total plummeted from 43 from 17. The managerial change from Walt Weiss to Bud Black is likely a positive for the running game, as Black's teams in San Diego piled up at least 118 stolen bases in four straight seasons from 2010-2013 when the Padres' roster was built for an aggressive approach.

David Dahl finished 22-for-29 across three stops last season. Don't be surprised if he's initially limited to 15-20 attempts, as Gerardo Parra may push him for playing time in left field. Trevor Story was 22-for-25 on the basepaths between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015 before his 8-for-13 mark in his 2016 debut with Colorado. Given the power he displayed, Story is a better bet to steal 12-15 bases than to return to his minor league thievery rate.

D.J. LeMahieu's 23-for-26 mark on the basepaths in 2015 appears to be an outlier, as he has book-ended that with a 10-for-20 mark in 2014 and an 11-for-18 mark last season. Adjust expectations accordingly with his low success rate.

Chicago Cubs
2016 SB: 66 | CS: 34 | ATT: 110 | Success Rate: 66.0% (25th)

Dexter Fowler led the Cubs in steals last season (13), and it's possible that a Jon Jay-Albert Almora platoon would be able to replicate that output given that Almora is the bigger threat to reach double-digit steals and he's likely stuck on the small side of a platoon. Heyward's 53-point drop in OBP helped drive his stolen-base total from 23 to 11, but he still runs well enough to recover if he's able to adjust his swing and get back on track at the plate. Javier Baez (.314 OBP) could also be positioned for an uptick in steals if he's able to improve his 3.3% walk rate and/or parlay a reduction in strikeout rate into more trips to first base.

Miami Marlins
2016 SB: 71 | CS: 28 | ATT: 99 | Success Rate: 71.7% (12th)

Top Threats to Run
Dee Gordon – 30-for-37 (81.1%) | ADP: 45
J.T. Realmuto – 12-for-16 (75.0%) | ADP: 111
Ichiro Suzuki – 10-for-12 (83.3%) | ADP: 757
Christian Yelich – 9-for-13 (69.2%) | ADP: 58

The Marlins had four players finish last season with more than two stolen bases. Of that bunch, it's difficult to expect double-digit steals from any player other than Dee Gordon. A PED suspension limited Gordon to 79 games, effectively cutting his stolen-base output in half. He should reach 50 steals again over a full season, with a ceiling in the low-to-mid 60s. J.T. Realmuto's 12 steals were a nice surprise for fantasy owners, but it seems unlikely that he'll run significantly more despite a 75 percent success rate. Yelich's three-year arc in steals: 21, 16, 9 (in 2016) is somewhat surprising, as he's just 25 years old and possesses a 56-for-72 (77.8%) mark in his career with the Marlins. If he's able to maintain last season's power gains, 12-15 steals might be the new range for him.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 SB: 45 | CS: 26 | ATT: 71 | Success Rate: 63.4% (26th)

Top Threats to Run
Joc Pederson – 6-for-8 (75.0%) | ADP: 201
Yasiel Puig – 5-for-7 (71.4%) | ADP: 219
Trayce Thompson – 5-for-6 (83.3%) | ADP: 504
Logan Forsythe – 6-for-12 (50.0%) | ADP: 239

There is little to like about the makeup of the Dodgers from a stolen-base perspective. It's surprising considering Dave Roberts' tendencies as a player, but the roster at his disposal offers little to get excited about.

St. Louis Cardinals
2016 SB: 35 | CS: 26 | ATT: 61 | Success Rate: 57.4% (30th)

Top Threats to Run
Dexter Fowler – 13-for-17 (76.4%) | ADP: 187
Stephen Piscotty – 7-for-12 (58.3%) | ADP: 130
Kolten Wong – 7-for-7 (100%) | ADP: 328

As noted previously, Dexter Fowler led the Cubs in steals last season. He would have led the Cards in that category as well, as Stephen Piscotty and Kolten Wong were the only two players on the team with more than five swipes. Piscotty's low success rate, and Wong's uphill battle for playing time makes this roster one that is borderline useless for those seeking speed. Harrison Bader's contributions on the basepaths at Double-A and Triple-A have come with a low success rate, including a 13-for-26 mark split between the two levels last season.

New York Mets
2016 SB: 42 | CS: 18 | ATT: 60 | Success Rate: 70.0% (14th)

Top Threats to Run
Jose Reyes – 9-for-11 (81.8%) | ADP: 298
Asdrubal Cabrera – 5-for-6 (83.3%) | ADP: 271

Reyes put the pieces back together in his return to the Mets last season, combining his efficiency on the basepaths with a .443 slugging percentage – his highest since 2011. Now 33, his path to playing time hinges on the health of David Wright, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, and to a lesser extent, Lucas Duda. A return to the 20-steal plateau is within reach if Reyes finds his way onto the field for 125-130 starts in 2017. Otherwise, the Mets are woefully thin with speed options at the present time.