Rounding Third: Saves Strategy 2019

Playing the closer game can be so frustrating in fantasy baseball. It's rare that they provide the value that they cost, but in many of our formats, we can't ignore the category. That's definitely the case in the NFBC and the TGFBI, where there's an overall contest. In stand-alone leagues I've had some success punting saves, but for purposes of this article, I'm going to assume that you need to acquire saves.

Let's first figure define how many saves you need to compete in your league. As we discussed last year, our saves targets used to be remarkably stable. If you wanted to hit the 80th percentile in saves, you need 88-89 saves in a 15-team mixed, and 100-102 saves in a 12-team mixed. If you instead aimed for the 70th percentile, you needed 81-84 in 15-teamers and 93-95 in 12-teamers. But for the second season in a row, that number has dropped. For each target, you need 8-9 fewer saves than you did previously.

Like last year, I think it's helpful to separate closers from your overall rankings. Given that they don't translate well in terms of overall value, you need to plan instead in rating them with relative value. Do you place a premium on getting an elite guy, or that next tier? You should have a list reflecting who those guys are, with a rough idea where they go, all the while realizing that in snake drafts you're somewhat beholden to the closer runs. It's up to you whether you want to spark those runs, react to them, or avoid them. Keep in mind that sometimes I'll place a premium on stability over a full projection, depending on my strategy and/or current holdings in a draft.

Here are my tiers:

Lock-Down, Blue-Chip Closers (All closers listed with current NFBC ADP, Jan. 31 to Feb. 18, the last 64 drafts):

1. Edwin Diaz (50); 2. Blake Treinen (62); 3. Aroldis Chapman (82).



Last year I listed just two closers in this group, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, and neither are in this group this year, at least for me. So right away I have some reason to question the process - or at least my tiers for this year. I'll talk more about Jansen and Kimbrel in the next section, but there are tiny reasons to worry. But I don't feel those reasons to worry about Diaz, Treinen and Chapman. I'll grant that the Yankees have plenty of alternatives in case Chapman falters. Dellin Betances, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and even Chad Green are all capable of closing. But it's worth saying that I don't view the "lock-down" category of closers as locked down as I have in the past - nor has the market, as the price on the top tier of closers is currently about 10-15 picks lower than it was last year. I won't often be shopping from this tier, though I did get Treinen in an NFBC Draft Champions league comprised from speakers at the Arizona Fall League First Pitch Symposium, at pick 85. I wasn't planning on taking a closer there but found it difficult to pass on the value, especially in a league where there are no free agent moves.

Not Quite Blue Chip

4. Roberto Osuna (90); 5. Kenley Jansen (77); 6. Craig Kimbrel (73); 7. Felipe Vazquez (93); 8. Brad Hand (85); 9. Kirby Yates (126).

This year I'm merging the "Not Quite Blue-Chip" and "Tiny Tinge of Doubt" categories, because there's not too much difference in them, and because I'm hurting for good inventory. Truth be told, I'm not super comfortable taking Jansen or Kimbrel at their current prices. Jansen not only had the heart surgery after the season, but also struggled earlier in the season, giving up a whopping 13 homers overall. Kimbrel's struggles weren't as pronounced, but his velocity was down and his command was off in September and the playoffs. Oh yeah, he's still unsigned too, and the Red Sox have said they're unlikely to bring him back. But he's the last big offseason domino to fall, and he'll likely wipe out a somewhat established closer somewhere on this list. Now that Manny Machado has signed with the Padres, I've elevated Kirby Yates out of the risky category. I'm guessing that his 126 ADP will rise in the next month, but if not I really like his price.

Good Skills, But Risky

10. Sean Doolittle (110); 11. Jose Leclerc (118); 12. Corey Knebel (146); 13. Will Smith (211); 14. Josh Hader (116).

Risk comes in a couple of different forms here. Doolittle is great, but can't seem to make it through a full healthy season. I don't like "handcuffing" my closers in most formats because the reserve roster spots are too valuable to hold for a player you hope not to use, but in a best-ball or draft-and-hold league, you have to back up Doolittle and similar risk profiles like him. Leclerc screams trade risk to me - much like Keone Kela and Brad Hand last year, as Texas isn't going to compete this year or likely even next. Smith is also a trade risk, and even possibly a job battle - I'm wondering if I'm not taking Mark Melancon and even Sam Dyson seriously enough. I'm taking Knebel over Hader purely because I think he'll have the role, whereas Hader presents a problem - he might get 10 saves and 10 wins, but will you have him active for the weeks that they happen? In an "only" or 15-team format you'll likely have him active every week, but in a 12-teamer it's tough to maintain the discipline to keep him active despite his role.

Has Job, Shaky Skills

15. Ken Giles (140); 16. Raisel Iglesias (110); 17. Wade Davis (124); 18. Cody Allen (165).

I don't think I'm going to be fishing in these waters too often this season. Giles has some appeal to me, so I could see getting him a few times, and I did buy Allen dirt cheap in the XFL, a keeper league that auctions in November at First Pitch Arizona. But Iglesias is my most prominent closer fade, and it kills me to say it. But the velocity started trickling down last year, and with that he gave up more homers and got crushed (.544 SLG) on his two best pitches. I'm a good 7-8 rounds after his ADP on him. The reasoning behind fading Davis is obvious - sketchy control + Coors mitigates his "… contract guarantees the job …" factor. Giles lost the job with the Astros last year despite not recording a blown save all year, and while he was better with the Jays, he still gave up four homers in 19.2 innings, which is scary. But he also walked a mere seven batters all season, which is a big positive in his direction.

Job Battles, Part I

19. Pedro Strop (243); 20. Jose Alvarado (164); 21. David Robertson (180); 22. Arodys Vizcaino (205); 23. Ryan Brasier (460) or Matt Barnes (322); 24. Archie Bradley (213); 25. Jordan Hicks (217).

I have Strop ahead of the first wave of job-battle type closers, because I think Brandon Morrow takes a long time to return and might not close after he returns. Strop has been great for five years for the Cubs and did well as the substitute closer last year. The only thing that bothers me is the possibility that Joe Maddon could split the saves between Strop, Brad Brach and Steve Cishek while Morrow is out. But that's the nature of this section.

Arguably I should have Alvarado higher, but the Rays' tendency to manage their bullpen in a non-traditional matter scares me. But his skills are pretty strong, with the exception of his 4.08 BB/9 rate. Robertson similarly has great skills, and he adds solid closer experience, but the Phillies have already stated that they won't manage the closer spot in a traditional fashion, much like last year. Plus there's a reasonable chance the Phillies jump into the Kimbrel sweepstakes. If the Phillies don't go after Kimbrel, then it might be the Braves, and that prospect has cooled me off on Arodys Vizcaino, as does the presence of A.J. Minter - who might cost you more than you anticipate, if you're trying to get both current Braves relievers. I have three shares of Vizcaino in early drafts and got sniped on Minter twice. I'm inclined not to add that risk in my remaining drafts.

The Red Sox are the biggest remaining wild card in this spring's closer job battles. They've recently said they are unlikely to bring back Kimbrel, and from what I've read about their luxury tax situation, I tend to believe them. There's not much out there on the free agent market, so I think it'll between Ryan Brasier and Matt Barnes … for now. I have a tiny preference for Brasier, for what it's worth, though his apparently minor toe injury has slowed his start to the spring. What worries me though is that it is extremely likely that the Red Sox make some trades this summer, when the contract hit is smaller.

I was bigger on Bradley in December when manager Torey Lovullo said that he was inclined to use Bradley as the closer, but Lovullo has since backed away from that declaration, in part due to the signing of Greg Holland.

Finally, the Cardinals have three potential viable options - Jordan Hicks nominally in the incumbent after finishing the year picking up saves, but they also added Andrew Miller in the offseason and explicitly said there's no set closer now. Moreover, Carlos Martinez has been shut down for two weeks because of a week shoulder, leading to speculation that the Cards could move him back to the bullpen, where he faired well last year.

Job Battles, Part II

26. Trevor May (272); 27. Alex Colome (246).

These two battles are a tier-drop for me, both because the role-stability of the presumed leader and because the quality of opportunities are a little lower for me, even though I think there are some reasons to be encouraged with the Twins and White Sox. The reason for optimism for May is how well he finished the season, picking up three saves in the last eight games of the season, while posting a 36:5 K:BB over 25.1 innings. The reason for pessimism is that the Twins added Blake Parker in the offseason and presumably he'll compete for the role. I'll concede there's potential for upward mobility as draft season continues. Colome appears to be the leader for the White Sox role, especially after Herrera's foot injury delayed his spring training work. I could easily envision taking either May or Colome as my second closer in deep leagues.

Bad Teams

28. Drew Steckenrider (273); 29. Mychal Givens (245); 30. Shane Greene (273); 31. Hunter Strickland (304); 32. Brad Boxberger (376).

After steadfastly avoiding sticker price on closers in the Mixed LABR draft 10 days ago, I shrugged and took Steckenrider at pick 18.8 (15-team mixed league), on the basis of "… eh, the Marlins suck but he's pretty good and probably has the job …," only to see the Marlins sign Sergio Romo as an immediate threat. They've since clarified that Steckenrider and Adam Conley are the two most likely to close, but that tempers my enthusiasm for him. Givens probably has the most job security of this group, Boxberger maybe the least. But ideally you're hoping one of these guys is your third closer.

OK, now that we've defined our tiers, what's your strategy? Here are a few suggestions.

One Up, Two Late - This is my preferred method in the NFBC events. It gives me the flexibility to have three closers in a given week when I want, but I haven't invested enough draft capital that I feel compelled to use all three every week. When I say "one up," that means getting a closer from one of the first two tiers, most likely coming from the second tier, and ideally one of the last two from that tier.


Steer Into the Skid - In this plan, I'm not spending a top-10 pick on any closer, but instead taking advantage of the volatility in the position and drafting in the "Good Skills But Risky" and the "Job Battles" tiers. I actually like doing this too - but it's sometimes tough to pull off, because there are so many hitters and starting pitchers that I also like in rounds 11-20. Moreover, the Job Battles are obviously risky because sometimes you can't even corner the saves market on a team by taking two pitchers - witness what happened with the Cardinals and Angels last year.


Double Tap Elites - I've done this before, even as recently as last year with Jansen and Kimbrel in a Draft Champions league. I don't think I'll do it again. Even though I thought it made sense structurally to do so, as I was drafting at 1.14 in a 15-teamer, and got shut out on my "aces" by the time pick 3.14 rolled around, when the "lock-down" guys aren't really so much, and you have to still chase saves later or miss out when you don't have pickups, it really hurts.

The other thing that steered me away from relying on the elite closers is the overall standings from last year's NFBC Main Event. Of the top-20 teams in the standings, only one owner had Edwin Diaz, one had Kimbrel and none had Jansen. The most commonly owned closers from those top 20 teams were Blake Treinen and Bud Norris, at five teams apiece.

Former Main Event winner Rob Silver has often advocated against paying up for saves, and seeing all of this brings his argument into sharper focus for me. If you want to get your strikeouts without sacrificing power or speed, saves certainty has to be the one commodity that has to give. If you'd rather give up speed certainty, I can see that, but good luck - it's harder to combat late in the draft or on the waiver wire. So chances are in my drafts I'll be employing some sort of strategy that will require patience and sacrifice with the closer position.

One final note - your mileage may vary with these tiers. In fact, I really recommend you create your own tiers - and even create your own categories. We provide projections for you, but often that's just a starting point. Use our information, including our Closer Grid and decide what factors are important to you. Maybe you'll devise a different strategy – I'd love to hear it in the comments!