Rounding Third: Saves Strategy Upheaval?

In the 2018 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide, I dwelled quite a bit on the unprecedented homer-friendly environment in Major League Baseball, and what that means for our roster construction. The basic takeaway from that article is that there were a record number of homers hit in 2017, both in raw totals and in a per-game basis. You cannot possibly draft enough power – if you think you have enough, you probably still need more. Last year, to reach the 80th percentile in homers in the NFBC, you needed to average nearly 23 homers per offensive lineup slot.

But where are you going to find all that power? Something has to give, especially in draft formats. Why not see if you can adjust your saves strategy to allow for that extra early power bat? As we'll see, the conditions for doing so may be better than ever.

Until last season, the totals that you needed in saves to hit the 80th and 70th percentile in saves were remarkably stable, both in the 15-team Main Event and the 12-team Online Championship. Why do we point toward 80th and 70th percentile? There are two good reasons. The total points that you would get if you averaged hitting the 80th percentile in every category would put you in the money for the overall contest in each competition. Hitting the 70th percentile in each category would allow you to cash in most of the individual leagues. But why not aim higher in each category? Because the amount of capital you'd need to invest to achieve a higher plateau would be prohibitively expensive, costing you more to make those last few slots in other categories. If you look at it like a bell curve, it gets steeper at the top, and barring an unusual windfall, your pursuit in getting to the 90th percentile in saves (as an example) will cost you too much in other categories to be worth the effort.

Here's what it took to hit the 80th and 70th percentiles in saves in both formats over the last five seasons.

As you can see, there was a considerable drop-off across the board last season. I added the "Total Saves" column to illustrate that saves were down overall in baseball, too. It wasn't as if we were worse in identifying who was going to pick up those saves. But is that drop in saves sustainable? When Chris Liss and I discussed the topic on SiriusXM, a possible reason for the drop in saves posited was that with baseball stratified with more "haves" and "have nots," there were fewer closer games and thus fewer saves. This season appears to have a similar dichotomy.

Looking a little closer at the chart, with the drop in saves last year it was possible to hit the 80th percentile in 15-team leagues with just two closers, though just barely if you didn't have Alex Colome and his 47 saves. In previous seasons, you almost certainly needed to get saves from 2.5 of your nine pitching slots, occasionally using three closers in some weeks. If our 80th percentile sticks around 80 saves this year, the need for starting three closers in a week will be lower.

Let's look at my closer tiers. This year I'm trying to do something a little differently with my closers. Instead of grouping them directly by my projection, I'm going to put an emphasis on stability in the role. So even though a given closer might be projected to earn more, be it because he has more innings and strikeouts, or perhaps even more saves (though I think this exercise of putting closers into tiers will also change my saves projection for some), he might end up in a lower tier. I want to avoid the trap of investing too much in the closer flavor of the month that I've so often fallen into in the past. See also, Seung Hwan Oh.

Lock-Down, Blue-Chip Closers (All closers listed with their current NFBC ADP):

1. Kenley Jansen (37); 2. Craig Kimbrel (44)

There's not much to say here, these two closers provide complete peace of mind. The only question is whether you want to pay up for them, at the expense of a strong bat or any of the remaining Tier 2 starters. As a point of reference, the starting pitchers currently grouped near these two are Noah Syndergaard (33), Jacob deGrom (34), Carlos Carrasco (35), Justin Verlander (36), Robbie Ray (42) and Yu Darvish (48). I'm in a Draft Champions league where all but Ray and Darvish were gone at the 44th (3.14) pick, so I went ahead with Jansen.

Not Quite Blue-Chip But Very Safe

3. Aroldis Chapman (64); 4. Cody Allen (99)

Chapman ever-so-briefly lost his job with the Yankees last year, and the Yankees have a deep bullpen full of pitchers who could close if asked, but he has such a long track record and the contract to boot. Allen's been solid in the closer role for three-and-a-half years now, has a high K rate and has cut down his walks. But there's a little risk of him getting fewer saves due to the presence of Andrew Miller and because the Indians' starters are so good that they go deeper than other teams, with a league-leading seven complete games last year. But I love Allen's price – if I miss out on Jansen or Kimbrel, I'd be happy with Allen as my top closer in the late sixth or early seventh round.

Tiny Tinge of Doubt

5. Roberto Osuna (78); 6. Raisel Iglesias (96); 7. Edwin Diaz (83); 8. Corey Knebel (60); 9. Felipe Rivero (86); 10. Sean Doolittle (131)

This is the area where I've frequently struggled. These are strong closers typically, but for one reason or another there's greater risk than I've been willing to acknowledge, at least for their draft cost. Usually these guys have had a couple years of closing experience, and thus their hold on the job does not hold up if he hits a really rough patch.

It's true that if you dig deep enough, you can find a reason to be concerned about anyone. Osuna blew 10 saves last year and battled anxiety issues that threatened his job last season, though he righted the ship late. Iglesias is on a bad team that toyed with employing its relievers in a non-traditional fashion last year, though ultimately it settled on him as a one-inning closer in the second half of the season. Diaz has control issues and briefly lost his role as the closer. Knebel had a great 2017 campaign but walks too many batters for my comfort. Rivero has only had a half-season as a closer and wasn't great in 2016 overall. Doolittle isn't durable, though at his current price I'd be happy with him. The point here is aside from Doolittle, these relievers carry more risk than their draft price reflects.

Trade Risks

11. Brad Hand (117); 12. Alex Colome (119); 13. Arodys Vizcaino (147)

Colome's 47 saves led Major League Baseball by a wide margin last season, but his name has been mentioned frequently as a trade target this offseason, fueled by another offseason where the Rays have looked to shed salary. He might still close for his potential new team, but it's not a given. Hand is less likely to be dealt now that he's signed a long-term contract with the Padres, but that cost-certainty might actually create more interest from trade suitors. Vizcaino might not be that big of a threat to be traded, but his lesser trade risk is also balanced by some role uncertainty.

Brand Names I'm Worried About

14. Ken Giles (92); 15. Wade Davis (97)

I'm probably guilty of recency bias in the case of worrying about Ken Giles, following his nightmarish run in the World Series. My fear is almost entirely based on the concern that he could lose his job – this isn't the first time that A.J. Hinch has removed him from the role. The case against Davis is pretty straightforward – his velocity and K% have been dropping, and now he's pitching in Coors Field.

Good Skills, Uncertain Role, Part I

16. Archie Bradley (187); 17. Blake Parker (214); 18. Brandon Morrow (226)

Of the three here, only Morrow technically has the job. All three had tremendous component numbers last year and might actually be worth more to their respective teams in a non-closing role. That's especially a worry in the case of Bradley, as the Diamondbacks have announced that Bradley will be under consideration along with Brad Boxberger (323) and Yoshihisa Hirano (450). Parker had only eight saves last year as Angels manager Mike Scioscia mixed and matched in the bullpen. But Parker had the best stats of those in the Angels bullpen – but Cam Bedrosian (330) and Jim Johnson (562) are real threats. Morrow has durability concerns and hasn't been a full-time closer before, plus the Cubs have many other alternatives in the bullpen, including Carl Edwards Jr. (341) and Steve Cishek (525).

Unsigned

19. Greg Holland (127)

The longer Holland remains unsigned in this crazy offseason, the less likely it is that he'll land a closing gig wherever he ultimately signs. But if he falls I'd still roster him because of his strong skills and closing experience.

Good Skills Uncertain Role Part II / Certain Role Uncertain Skills

20. Hector Neris (139); 21. Blake Treinen (199); 22. Jeurys Familia (168); 23. Mark Melancon (171); 24. Brad Brach (230); 25. Fernando Rodney (240); 26. Shane Greene (239)

I won't go into too much detail in this tier, though it's a viable strategy to nab both Rodney and Addison Reed (266), though you'll have to pay for Reed sooner than you'd like as a closer-in-waiting. Of this group, I like Neris and Treinen by a decent gap, even though Neris has a new manager and wasn't fully entrusted with the job last year.

Job Battles

27. Alex Claudio (321); 28. Kelvin Herrera (208); 29. Luke Gregerson (376); 30. Juan Minaya (334); 31. Brad Ziegler (390)

Of this group, only Gregerson is projected to close for a winning team. But he hasn't demonstrated closer-worthy skills recently and was marginalized during the Astros' World Series run last year. I'm not that high on Bud Norris as his potential replacement either, but Alex Reyes (255) has been rumored to be part of the picture once he returns from Tommy John surgery. But I hate Reyes' NFBC price – if he has any sort of setback from his projected May return date, your likelihood of getting a good return on your investment shrinks away. Ziegler just got named the Marlins' closer to begin the season, so expect for his ADP to rise in the next few weeks ahead of Kyle Barraclough (314) and Drew Steckenrider (364).

How to Attack Saves

Defining my tiers (and of course, your mileage may vary) is only the first part of the equation. The next part is to have a plan on how to attack the category. I'm going to use the NFBC, where it's much more difficult to compete if you punt a category. In a stand-alone league, obviously you don't *have* to get the saves, and often the price to get them can be prohibitive. I'm in an AL-only old-school 4x4 league, where closers get inflated, and some of my best results have come when I've avoided paying for saves at the auction table.

Because we are operating that we have to get the saves for the purpose of this article, let's explore a few plans to get there.

A) Double Up Top

This one might seem a little risky, as it requires you to use two relatively high picks to accomplish it. I alluded to the NFBC Draft Champions League above where I took Jansen at 3.14 – I also took Kimbrel at 4.2, knowing that I'd have to attack starting pitching with volume after missing out in the first three rounds on the top two tiers of starters. But you don't have to be that extreme with this plan – I'd also be happy getting my second closer from the next tier, in the form of Chapman or Allen – and Allen's price makes this plan easier to accomplish. The beauty of this path is two-fold. First, you get the obvious benefit of extreme security in the role, without having to fish in murkier waters later in the draft. But you also get superior ratios and strikeouts from spots that everyone else in your league will eventually have to fill. In a way, this is a positional-scarcity play.

Because you're spending early picks on two closers, it necessarily entails that you won't be spending another top-20 round pick on a reliever. That's OK! Remember, this is a volatile pool to chose from, and there are valuable players available at other positions in the draft. And you still have the ability to speculate on job battles, closers-in-waiting for risky closers and high-skilled relievers who don't have the job yet. In fact, that latter category is a target-rich environment, increasingly so when so many teams are limiting how deep their starters can work.

Chances are you will need to add about 10-15 saves from your speculative plays – especially in a 12-team league. But saves do come into the league all the time, and you only will have to hit once on that play. This plan works best with one or zero first-tier starters. If you begin the draft with two elite starters, chances are you need to spend the picks necessary to draft in this tier of closers on hitters instead.

B) One Up, Two Late

If you already have an ace starter or even two, I still really like getting a closer from the top two tiers if at all feasible, though it's likely that you'll only be able to afford Cody Allen in such a scenario, at least in the NFBC format. I'd then avoid the next tier of closers to focus on hitters and starters, looking to jump back in around pick 150-175 for my second closer, and then get one more around pick 200-225. There's more volatility with this plan, obviously, but that's why we want to get three actual closers to help account for that risk. You still get the benefit of one solid set of ratios and K's with your first closer, however, and hopefully you'll run on the good side of variance (and utilize your superior skill in identifying the better risks to take!).

C) Steer Into the Skid

Closers by their very nature are volatile. Why not embrace that volatility? Some analysts in the industry swear by waiting on closers, much as you would with catchers, or with quarterbacks in fantasy football. Instead of paying above "earned" prices on those closers, it's potentially more profitable to wait, and attack with depth. Going this route is by definition riskier, especially as the prices on some of the latter-tier closers go up as we get closer to Opening Day.

And yet, top-10 closers emerge from this group all the time. Alex Colome led the majors with 47 saves last year, and was the 12th closer taken on average, with an ADP of 98. Greg Holland was tied for second with 41 saves with Kenley Jansen, yet had an ADP of 261. Corey Knebel was a free agent in many leagues, with a 386 ADP, and tied for fourth in the majors with 39 saves, along with Roberto Osuna and Fernando Rodney (246). 2016 brought similar results among top-10 closers, as have many other seasons.

By waiting on closers in this sort of plan, I don't suggest passing on all of the closer tiers, but rather start picking them around pick 150 or so, and getting two in rapid succession, with a third and maybe a fourth even before you're done. You'll need to remain active on the waiver wire, and of course there's the risk that you miss on all of your targets. But the benefit of this plan is that you've presumably loaded up in other categories by passing on the first few tiers of closers, yet you still have a chance of finishing high in the category.

With all three of these methods, we're avoiding the tiers of closers where the risks outweigh the benefits. Of course, you may have your own tiers – in fact, I'd recommend that! Do the research, rank and classify the closers yourself. You don't need to do projections, but you should know where the drop-offs are among your tiers, and how you plan to attack the position.