This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.
2015 Phillies Team Preview
The Phillies entered last season hoping to compete despite it being obvious to most observers that the team was already on a clear downswing, and a rebuild was needed. The team finally committed to a rebuild this offseason and jettisoned Marlon Byrd, Jimmy Rollins and Antonio Bastardo while also publically shopping Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard and Jonathan Papelbon. The team enters camp still hoping to move veteran players and open up playing time for some of their younger guys. It figures to be a long season for Phillies fans as the team continues to dismantle their roster with an eye towards competing in 2017 or 2018.
Offseason Moves
Traded Marlon Byrd and cash to the Reds for Ben Lively.
The departure of Byrd results in Domonic Brown shifting to right field while opening up playing time for Darin Ruf and Grady Sizemore in left field. See the top prospects section for more on Lively.
Traded Jimmy Rollins and cash to the Dodgers for Tom Windle and Zach Eflin.
Freddy Galvis is expected to handle regular duties at short with the departure of Rollins. Unfortunately, he has shown little improvement with his offensive game the past few seasons, and will likely be a liability to the vast majority of fantasy rosters. See the top prospects section for more on Eflin. Windle will open the year at Double-A Reading. He's not a high ceiling prospect and might project better in a relief role.
Traded Antonio Bastardo to the Pirates for Joely Rodriguez.
Rodriguez had a disastrous 2014 campaign, posting a 4.84 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 134 innings for Double-A Altoona. The lefty didn't miss very many bats, as evidenced by a 73:43 K:BB ratio, and the team moved him to the bullpen by mid-July. He's still only 23 years of age and was making his first appearance in Double-A, so there's still a chance he can turn things around. The Phillies like his upside as a reliever and could give him a shot at a bullpen job sometime next season.
Selected Odubel Herrera from the Rangers and Andy Oliver from the Pirates in the Rule 5 draft.
The Phillies selected Herrera from the Rangers in the Rule 5 draft. He was originally a middle infielder, but has recently started playing outfield, including center field in Venezuela this winter. With the Phillies rebuilding, Herrera has a shot at earning a decent amount of playing time this season. Oliver, 27, seemed to find his niche in the bullpen last season. In 48 appearances with the Pirates' Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 2.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 12.0 K/9, with a .129 BAA against opposing lefties. Control has been a major issue, but a specialist role in 2015 is well within the realm of possibility.
Signed free agent Chad Billingsley to a one-year contract.
Billingsley was attempting to return from April 2013 Tommy John surgery last season but never made it back to the mound for the Dodgers, and eventually had surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow in June. In his last "healthy" season two years ago, Billingsley tossed just 149.2 innings, but he did carry strong peripherals (7.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9) and appeared to be a viable mid-rotation starter. If he can get past the combination of arm injuries, Billingsley may prove to be a nice bargain for the Phillies at his $1.5 million price tag, but health is understandably a major concern for him at this point.
Signed free agent Aaron Harang to a one-year contract.
Signed late in the spring to stabilize an injury-ravaged rotation, Harang was one of the main reasons why the Braves were able to stay afloat throughout much of the season. The right-hander was all but written off following a disastrous 2013 campaign (5.40 ERA), but he dominated in his first five starts for Atlanta, allowing just three earned runs while fanning 33 over 31.2 innings. He gave up nine earned runs in his sixth start, but Harang would right the ship and finish with a career-low 3.57 ERA over 204.1 innings -- his highest innings total since 2007. His 3.57 FIP and 4.03 xFIP suggest it really was not much of a fluke. The Phillies inked him for $5 million in January to chew up innings in the back of their rotation for 2015.
Signed free agent Elvis Araujo.
Araujo, 23, pitched for the Indians in their farm system last season. The Phillies gave him a major league deal in order to sign him this winter. He was sought after by numerous teams because of a fastball that hits the upper 90s. Araujo will get a look as a reliever in spring training, but the Phillies already have three other lefties projected to be part of their bullpen. He will likely open the year at Double-A.
Claimed Jordan Danks off waivers from the White Sox.
Danks received two long looks with the White Sox in 2014 thanks to injuries in the outfield, but he did not combat the perception that his ceiling is that of a fourth or fifth outfielder. He exhibited a strong glove in all three outfield spots, but showed little of the modest power he has displayed in recent seasons at Triple-A Charlotte. Danks should compete for a reserve outfield spot in spring training, but he could end up back at Triple-A to begin the season since he has one minor league option remaining.
Signed Andres Blanco, Brian Bogusevic, Russ Canzler, Paul Clemens, Chase d'Arnaud, Jeff Francoeur, Rene Garcia, Jeanmar Gomez, Tyler Gonzales, Tyler Henson, John Hester, Koyie Hill, Darin Mastroianni, Chris McGuiness, Chris Nelson, Sean O'Sullivan, Xavier Paul, Cord Phelps, Stephen Shackleford, Kevin Slowey, and P.J. Walters to minor league contracts.
Blanco is presently the only true shortstop on the Phillies' roster besides Freddy Galvis. That gives him a decent shot at earning a bench job this spring. Gomez or Slowey might have a shot a bullpen jobs. The rest are likely ticketed for time in the minors.
Projected Lineup (vs. RHP/LHP)
1. Ben Revere, CF
2. Freddy Galvis, SS
3. Chase Utley, 2B
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Darin Ruf/Grady Sizemore, LF
6. Domonic Brown, RF
7. Carols Ruiz, C
8. Cody Asche, 3B
The Phillies would like to trade Howard, but haven't found any takers. He will probably hit cleanup in the early part of the season, but could be dropped down if his struggles from last season continue. Manager Ryne Sandberg did give Ruiz a few shots at hitting second last season, but he has not been willing to commit to him there yet. Perhaps he will do so this spring. Galvis belongs in a utility role, but the Phillies have no other options at short. Asche could be pushed for the starting job at third by prospect Maikel Franco, but the expectation is that Franco opens the year back at Triple-A.
Projected Rotation
SP1 Cole Hamels
SP2 Aaron Harang
SP3 Cliff Lee
SP4 David Buchanan
SP5 Chad Billingsley / Jerome Williams / Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez / Jonathan Pettibone
Hamels and Lee are both on the trade block, but at the moment it looks like both with be with the Phillies on Opening Day. Lee needs to prove his elbow is sound before any clubs take a shot on him, and that has taken a big step back given his setbacks in spring training. Billingsley may not be ready until late-April, but figures to take a rotation spot when healthy. Until then, Williams may be the guy to hold down the final spot. Gonzalez showed some success as a reliever in the minors last year, but hasn't proven he can start. Buchanan is no lock for a rotation spot, but one has to assume he is slightly ahead of the others based on his work last season.
Closer:Jonathan Papelbon
Key bullpen members:Ken Giles, Jake Diekman, Justin De Fratus
Papelbon has the closing gig locked down until the Phillies are able to find a taker for him. Giles showed last season that he has the goods to be an elite closer, and will likely get the first crack at the job if Papelbon gets traded. Diekman also displayed elite skills, but righties still give him some troubles. He is more likely to be used in a setup role where matchups can help neutralize his weakness.
Notes of Importance, Fantasy and Otherwise:
Is Cliff Lee's elbow really healthy?
The Phillies are saying all the right things about Lee's progress in his offseason rehab. He started throwing off a mound in February and is on track to be ready for the start of spring training. Lee made just 13 starts last season due to a flexor-pronator tendon strain in his elbow. He spent time on the disabled list early last the season, then struggled when he came back from his first attempt at rehabbing the injury. His ratios were more or less in line with his career numbers when he was able to pitch last season, though he did lose a full strikeout off his K/9 and about one mph off his fastball. Those two issues may be directly related to the elbow injury, though Lee could also be experiencing age-related decline as he heads into what are likely to be the final few years of his career. He should come at a discount in drafts this year, but more cautious players may want to leave Lee for opponents to select, as there's certainly risk of more missed time due to the elbow, and now even a chance that he'll need career-ending surgery.
Who benefits if the Phillies can find a trade partner willing to take Ryan Howard off their hands?
The immediate beneficiary would likely be Darin Ruf. He is miscast in left field and the Phillies would benefit from giving him a longer look to see if the power he has flashed in the past is for real. If Ruf was exposed as a regular, then the Phillies could turn to Maikel Franco at first or shift Cody Asche across the diamond to get Franco playing time a third base. Franco is likely to come up at some point this season, regardless of if Howard is still around, but he would stand to see more at-bats if the Phillies had more flexibility with their roster.
Strengths
The bullpen has become a real strength for the Phillies after being a liability in recent seasons. Giles and Diekman have elite strikeout rates while Justin De Fratus has settled in as a solid seventh inning arm. The team has a few other young power arms coming up through the minors that could help bring additional depth in the coming years.
Weaknesses
Did you look at that lineup above? This team lacks offensive talent. Utley is the closest thing to an impact bat in the lineup. The lineup could get a small boost if Maikel Franco is able to produce when he gets his shot, but it may be a year or two before this offense starts to improve.
Rising: Ken Giles went from a relative unknown Double-A reliever to a future closer last season. He has been on the radar as a relief prospect thanks to his upper-90s fastball, but his command had always been questionable. Giles showed some improvements in the minors last season as he learned to better command his slider. The Phillies gave him a look in their bullpen in June and Giles seized the opportunity. His 12.6 K/9 and 5.82 K/BB ratio in 45.2 innings with the Phillies were eye opening. The Phillies appear ready to turn over closing duties to Giles, but Jonathan Papelbon remains with the club. Unless the Phillies can trade Papelbon, Giles will be limited to a setup role this season. He will still have value in most formats thanks to his strikeout rate and the potential for saves if Papelbon gets dealt or suffers an injury during the season.
Falling: It has been four seasons now since Ryan Howard was a big contributor to fantasy teams. He managed to stay on the field last season after leg injuries forced him to miss significant portions of the prior two seasons, but his output has not returned to his once elite level. His batting average sunk to .223 last year as his inflated BABIP in 2013 corrected itself. He also saw a decline in his production against righties, which is where Howard historically has made up for his atrocious numbers against lefties. Surprisingly, Howard's slugging percentage was better against lefties (.447) than it was against righties (.353) last season. Howard has now posted back-to-back HR/FB rates in the mid-teens which could be his new level at this point in his career. That makes the chances of a return to 30-plus home runs highly unlikely. The Phillies have also grown frustrated with Howard and have said they would like to trade him. The challenge will be finding a team willing to take on any of his massive salary. If he stays in Philly, the team will likely look to platoon him more and hope that his splits against righties last season were an anomaly.
Sleeper: Last season was a disaster for Domonic Brown and his owners. Coming off a 27 home run campaign in 2013, the hope was that Brown would build on his breakout season and solidify himself as one of the better young outfielders in the game. Instead, Brown struggled to produce with any consistency, his power output dropped off significantly and he lost playing time in the second half of the season. Underneath the disappointing surface numbers, Brown posted a career-high groundball rate (49.9%) while his HR/FB mark plummeted from 19.3% in 2013 to 7.9% last season (career 12.7%). There are no signs of a significant rebound in store for Brown, but he can still be a serviceable corner outfielder. He should see plenty of playing time this season as the Phillies evaluate his future with the team while they begin a rebuilding process.
Supersleeper: Darin Ruf was able to log some at-bats in the majors last season despite missing time with an oblique injury and a small fracture in his wrist. Manager Ryne Sandberg had planned to give Ruf a look at first base in place of the struggling Ryan Howard around midseason before Phillies management stepped in and forced him to reverse course. Instead, Ruf was used to occasionally platoon at first and in left. He was productive against lefties with three home runs and a .916 OPS in 61 at-bats, and should enter this season with a chance to fill a similar platoon role. Ruf did have some success against righties in 2013, and perhaps deserves a shot beyond a platoon role, but his defensive limitations and the current construction of the Phillies' roster will likely preclude him from receiving that shot. If the Phillies can jettison Howard, Ruf becomes a much more interesting option in deeper leagues.
Top Prospects
J.P. Crawford, SS - Crawford has steadily climbed through the Phillies' minor league system since he was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft. He spent the first half of last season at Low-A Lakewood before earning a promotion to High-A Clearwater to close out the season. Crawford has impressive tools. He has shown an excellent eye at the plate, makes contact at a good clip and keeps his strikeouts in check. He showed some signs of power growth in the second half of last season with eight home runs in 271 at-bats for Clearwater. If Crawford continues his progression, he'll likely hit Double-A by the middle of 2015, with the hope of a late 2016 or early 2017 arrival to Philadelphia.
Maikel Franco, 3B - Franco struggled to adjust in his first three months at the Triple-A level, posting just a .230/.285/.364 batting line in the first half of the season, but a light seemed to go on at the end of June. In the second half of the season, he hit .309/.326/.551 with 10 home runs and earned a promotion to the majors when rosters expanded in September. Franco didn't do much offensively during his month in the majors, but he did show that his defense at third base was major league ready. The Phillies will give him an opportunity to compete for the starting job at third this spring. His upside makes him worth gambling on late in fantasy drafts if he earns a job in camp.
Aaron Nola, P - Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
Ben Lively P - A fourth-round pick in the 2013 draft out of the University of Central Florida, Lively flew in a little under the prospect radar before last year, but dominated the High-A California League before holding his own at Double-A over the second half of the season. Much like former organization-mate Tony Cingrani, scouts aren't in love with Lively's repertoire of pitches, suggesting that his command and ability to use what he has won't last as he progresses up the ladder. For what it's worth, Lively's walk rate more than doubled at Pensacola, suggesting that the scouts might be right about him. He'll likely begin 2015 back in Double-A.
Zach Eflin P - Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.
