Mound Musings: What’s a Manager to do?

I suppose we should have seen this coming. Interrupted spring training, sitting and waiting, significant deviation from typical routines, starting and stopping in an attempt to get ready, and the ultimate problem of players simply not having enough time to get into game shape. The end result – at least so far – injuries occurring at unprecedented levels. Add in the incredibly complex problems with the current pandemic, and it's easily enough to keep fantasy owners scratching their heads. As we hopefully continue getting up to speed in the 2020 season, I thought it might be a good time to review some of the more recent events that teams, both major league and fantasy, are having to deal with:

Injuries Run Rampant: This is virgin territory. Injuries have always been a factor in MLB and the fantasy game, but this year, with an extremely short schedule, AND a much higher incidence of injuries among pitchers, the challenges are far beyond anything we have dealt with in the past. For fantasy purposes, if you lose a guy at the top of your rotation for an extended period, it is almost impossible to overcome. Almost.

Here's a quick quiz. The following nine starting pitchers have at least two things in common. Patrick Corbin, Mike Soroka, Miles Mikolas, Madison Bumgarner, Masahiro Tanaka, Alex Wood, Carlos Rodon, Brad Keller, and Homer Bailey. Can you identify their two common elements? Well, at just three weeks into the season, all nine have missed at least one start due to injury and/or pandemic related complications, but mostly injuries. That's one. The second is, all nine are (or were) on my roster in one of my primary leagues this year. Ouch. Of course, my debacle is far from unique. The majority of fantasy teams can probably provide a similar list.

I don't think it's as bad, but position players are also suffering. It's my opinion players, but specifically pitchers, are paying a price for lack of preseason preparation time. Position players can get closer with stretching drills and other workout regimes, but there's simply no replacement for throwing full speed, and throwing to live hitters, in a truly competitive environment. The bottom line is, virtually all fantasy team owners have to deal with this, and those who adapt best have the best chance to win.

COVID-19 and Players Opting Out of Playing in 2020: individually, the direct impact of the COVID-19 virus has been relatively minor, but the necessary cautions put in place have had a huge impact. First, the Miami Marlins were shut down while many of their players were in quarantine. More recently, the St. Louis Cardinals have been going through the same thing. And, with postponed games, not only does the quarantined team suffer scheduling complications, but their opponents suffer the same fate. And, from a pitching perspective, unlike hitters who can perhaps make up most of the plate appearances in future doubleheaders, pitchers will usually only pitch every five days. Starts missed to injury and postponements are lost, and extended delays between outings only magnify the injury risk and limits their ability to pitch at their best. Even more recently, the Indians shut down Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger for breaking team rules regarding health/safety. That is likely to take them off the mound for at least one start. Prior to Opening Day, I predicted Jack Flaherty would win the Cy Young award. With the Cardinals shutdown, he hasn't pitched since July 24. He might have made about 12 starts, now he is down to maybe eight, and a couple of those likely will be needed just to build back up to a normal starting pitcher's pitch count.

So, what's a fantasy owner to do? I never really thought I would say this, but I think it might be necessary to seek out a bit of help from relatively low upside starting pitchers. Obviously there's considerable risk with these guys, so I'd like to suggest some basic parameters I will use when evaluating these fringy pitchers. Here we go:

• He should be stretched out enough to at least be capable of throwing a minimum of 70 to 75 pitches. Otherwise he's unlikely to last the five innings necessary to qualify for a win, and is unlikely to collect many strikeouts.
• He needs offensive support. Assuming he can maintain a reasonable WHIP and ERA, enough run support to win some games is important. I wouldn't totally dismiss a pitcher on a poor team, but a good team is a big bonus.
• He needs at least two (three or more is better) pitches he can consistently throw for strikes. Obviously, these pitches aren't going to be the stuff of aces, if so the pitcher wouldn't be fringy, but he has to throw strikes to keep the pitch count down, stay ahead in counts, and to keep hitters from sitting on one pitch.
• He needs a little deception in his delivery if possible. Hitters pretty quickly adjust to a pitcher's repertoire, but it's more difficult, and therefore takes a little longer, if the pitcher's motion makes it harder to pick up the offering.
• He should be at least relatively unfamiliar to the hitters in the opposing lineup. This is huge. If they haven't faced the pitcher, hitters will need to build a "book" on him. What kind of movement should they expect to see. What pitch is he likely to throw in certain situations.

Those are my primary parameters. However, and this is critically important, you will need to be ready to punt and move on very quickly. The deception level will decline. Even if the motion includes a considerable amount of deception, hitters will immediately begin to get more comfortable. Further, the "book" will be rather quickly compiled. Once those initial advantages are gone, that mediocre (or slightly worse) stuff could become very hittable, and you want to be gone too. To be honest, it will probably be better to jump off that train too early rather than too late.

It Feels Like the World Is turned Upside Down: Interestingly, if the season were about to end, some very improbable teams would be in the playoffs, or challenging for playoff berths. Did we underestimate the strength of teams like Miami, Detroit, Baltimore and Colorado? They are all outperforming projections. Well, in a word, no, I don't think these surprises are much better than expected. When we have 60 games in the books, I think most, if not all, will have found their appropriate level.

So how can it be explained? Pitching has actually been a significant factor in these early season success stories, and the parameters for finding some quality innings listed above are quite probably in play. The teams generally have pitching staffs littered with low upside arms, in many cases, minor leaguers cast off by other teams. Major League hitters, who are probably a bit behind the pitchers at this point in the season, aren't very familiar with these guys. As the year progresses, I think we'll see a lot of fireworks.

Welcome Back to Buffalo: In this season of totally different, I really felt compelled to watch the first Major League baseball game played in Buffalo, New York in 105 years. With the Rogers Centre unavailable because of pandemic restrictions in Canada, the Blue Jays will play their 2020 home games at the park of their Triple-A affiliate, the Buffalo Bisons (which seems a little redundant to me). Their first opponent – the Miami Marlins. I watched out of historical curiosity and wondering how the park would play.

The first thing I have to say is, amazing! The Blue Jays and Buffalo turned the park into what appears to be a literal showplace in less than three weeks. I just wish it could have been overflowing with fans. One game certainly doesn't define a ballpark, but the stadium has very little foul territory, and the left field wall appears to play fairly short so, while it's not a bandbox, it might slightly favor right-handed pull hitters. Time will tell.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Mets received bad news earlier this week when Marcus Stroman opted out of playing during the 2020 season. He was believed close to returning from a calf injury, but he is now out of the picture. The probably solidifies the rotation spot of David Peterson, but he isn't likely to be fantasy relevant long term.
• I think Toronto's Hyun-Jin Ryu was one of those guys still getting into game shape in his first couple starts, but he looked very sharp in his most recent outing against Miami in Buffalo. I expected a solid season from him, and indications are that strong year is on the way. He might make a good trade target if you hurry.
• Stephen Strasburg made his 2020 debut, and the results were inconclusive. He pitched four clean innings before unraveling a bit in the fifth. Perhaps he was running on empty, but he also mentioned feeling some nerve irritation in his hand. Hopefully he'll get deeper into games as he builds up to full strength.
• The Royals Brady Singer is showing there is still more development to come, but he is already capable of holding his own at the MLB level. Also of note, the team added 2020 first-round pick Asa Lacy to their player pool, but I'd be a bit surprised if he gets a call-up. He's a blue chipper if they do bring him up.
• I watched Madison Bumgarner's most recent start, and it wasn't pretty. His velocity was down significantly, and he just didn't seem to be finishing his pitches. He has since landed on the injured list with a back strain, which could certainly explain his struggles. I think he's a good play if he can get healthy.
• The White Sox Carlos Rodon's balky shoulder still has him limited to playing catch on flat ground. They will need to fill his rotation slot in a few days with Reynaldo Lopez (also rehabbing a shoulder injury) or Ross Detwiler are the most likely candidates. Unfortunately, neither is a very good fantasy option.

Endgame Odyssey:

It didn't take the Rangers long to urn the ninth inning over to Rafael Montero. The day he returned from the injured list, he notched his first 2020 save. The next day, he added to that total. With Jose Leclerc very possibly out for the year, Montero should be the go-to guy for the foreseeable future. I always look at past experience when evaluating potential closers, but I didn't include enough influence from previous experience with the current manager. The Royals' Trevor Rosenthal enjoyed a very productive seasons in St. Louis with current Kansas City manager Mike Matheny, and it appears Matheny has a very good memory. The Mets will now be relying more than ever on their bullpen, and that's currently not a good thing. Edwin Diaz has been better in recent non-save outings, and they need him to step up soon to free up Seth Lugo for more versatile work. San Diego's Kirby Yates has struggled in the early going, and it seems he has been dealing with some non-specific soreness. It has opened the door for Drew Pomeranz to collect a handful of saves, but Yates remains the primary closer, at least for now. In Houston, Roberto Osuna is hurt, the normally reliable Ryan Pressly can't get hitters out, and the recently demoted starter, Josh James, can't throw strikes. Musical roles in the pen can sometimes create problems, but I think it will be better when Pressly settles in as the ninth inning guy. There is a faint hope Osuna can make it back late this year, but that's certainly a long shot.