Mound Musings: The “Kids on Parade” Watch List For 2022

This is the column I typically look forward to the most every season. As regular readers are probably aware, I play almost exclusively in keeper and dynasty leagues. And, not surprisingly, there is a huge benefit in identifying and acquiring excellent pitching talent just before they arrive in the major leagues.

The problem is, this list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of young arms with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of the blue-chippers are being called to the majors earlier, a fact that has been greatly accelerated with the shorter season, and no minor league games last year. The end result has been an unprecedented rush to the major leagues, and we are left trying to sift through all those kids in an attempt to add the real impact arms, while avoiding the pretenders.

Some of the pitchers have already seen time in the majors, and there are several others, like Alek Manoah in Toronto, Logan Gilbert in Seattle, Matt Manning in Detroit and Shane McClanahan in Tampa who I'm considering "graduates" even though they are still technically prospects. I will note that these four would be on the list below as all four are/were high on my list, and are likely to improve with experience. Let's get started:

Put (Keep) These Guys on Your Watch List …

MacKenzie Gore (SD) – Seeing Gore at the top of this list will probably get me labeled either faithful to a fault or stubborn as a mule. In reality, I am probably a little bit of both. He was progressing nicely, albeit a bit slowly, into the 2019 season. Then he didn't pitch at all in 2020, setting his progress back, and he dealt with recurring blister issues early this year. Additionally, they have been reworking his motion, to both improve the consistency of his release point and take stress off of his arm. All of this rework has reset his clock. He pitched at three different levels in 2021, flashing signs of the prospect he was (and hopefully is), but he also lacked the command they want to see. I have him at the top of my list because I can't forget the potential I saw not too long ago, but I will admit 2022 will be a make-or-break season for Gore. I just acquired him in a dynasty league because I still see him being an impact pitcher.

Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) – The Orioles continue to tease. The scouting department uncovers some exceptional talent, but in recent times, the player development side of the organization has struggled to get the most out of that talent. I'm hoping Rodriguez can buck that trend. He relies on a plus-plus high 90s four-seamer with a lot of movement, and he can spot it consistently. He also has a pretty good slider, but what pushed him near the top of my list is a change-up he just recently learned to throw. It's already well above average (I like that he picks things up so quickly), and it has made his fastball even more devastating. My only concern right now is lack of pitching deep into games. He has pitched the second half of 2021 at Double-A Bowie but hasn't gone more than five innings in any of those starts. He has the size and frame to log innings, so we need to see how he fares facing lineups a third or fourth time.

Garrett Crochet (CWS) – When you are left-handed and you hit triple-digits with your fastball, people understandably take notice. If you are a big, projectable arm who comes right out of college, straight to the major leagues on the South side of Chicago without any serious struggles, people might start whispering, "Chris Sale." You could argue Crochet should be a graduate since he's pitched 57 MLB innings, but I'm not ready to do that. I'm also not quite ready to predict he will match Sale's performance in the coming years, but I will say this, it would not surprise me even a little if he does. Taking his path has pluses and minuses. You see baseball at the highest level, but you don't become as comfortable with pitch sequencing, and you may not learn to throw your complete repertoire with total confidence. That said, I love everything about this guy, and I think his ceiling is off the charts if all the pieces fall into place.

Nate Pearson (TOR) – Pearson has arguably the best raw stuff of anyone on the list. His arm is what team's dream of, and the Jays had him riding the express. He began 2019 at High-A Dunedin (can you say mismatch, 10 hits and three walks with 35 strikeouts over 21 innings). He then stopped off at Double-A New Hampshire, before finishing the season at Triple-A Buffalo. He spent 2020 with Toronto and has split this season between Toronto, Triple-A and the injured list. I suppose he is a borderline candidate for graduate status, but we haven't seen even close to his best. He fairly easily sits mid-upper 90s, but he can hit triple digits when he wants to, and, notably, he pitches on an extremely exaggerated downward plane, which is almost unfair. He still needs to fine tune his command, and some red flags went up when he hit the injured list a couple times, but he has dominating starter upside. You want him on your roster.

Shane Baz (TB) – It seemed like we waited a long time for the Rays to give us a look at Baz. He dominated the minor leagues this year, at both Double-A and Triple-A before finally getting a call-up earlier this month. He already had great stuff, but his command locked in and he was able to take a very big next step. He's now made two starts in Tampa, and it's clear he has the tools to be a very good one. The Rays have a well-deserved reputation as an organization that gets the best out of their pitchers, however they are also prone to turning their quality young arms into fantasy frustrations. That's the fear. I like to think guys like Baz and McClanahan will avoid the unconventional usage pattern, but only time will tell. He's good enough to be a traditional starter.

Hunter Greene (CIN) – Based almost exclusively on a power arm that rather easily slips into triple digits, Greene has been on this list, or at least a consideration, since he was drafted in the first round in 2017. He has touched 103 mph with his fastball, but injuries (Tommy John surgery in 2018) and COVID-19 (in 2020) have limited his pro experience and slowed development of his secondary stuff. Finally, this season, he was more or less healthy and logged 106 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before being shut down earlier this month, having hit the innings limit set by the Reds. That suggests he is getting close to the major leagues. He still needs refinement with his command (he walked 39 in those 106 innings) but he also rang up 139 strikeouts. He could probably work out of the bullpen right now, maybe even closing games, which is something the Reds desperately need, but I'm pretty sure they are looking at a future in the rotation. Interestingly, when he first turned pro, he was also a DH ala-Ohtani, but that was quickly shelved, and he is being developed exclusively as a pitcher.

Sixto Sanchez (MIA) – The outlook for Sanchez revolves around his long-term health. He zoomed through the minors, skipping Triple-A before debuting in Miami in 2020. He made just seven starts, compiling 39 innings, and while he wasn't overwhelmingly successful, he didn't look out of place. There were some pretty lofty expectations for this season, but shoulder woes snuck into the picture. He eventually underwent pretty significant shoulder surgery in July, which ended his 2021 season. It's that shoulder thing. That type of injury is just so unpredictable. There hasn't been much news regarding a recovery timeline. The Marlins are hopeful he can be ready for spring training next year. If healthy, he will almost assuredly face workload restrictions in 2022, but he could be part of a very impressive young rotation that could include Alcantara, Rogers, Meyer, Luzardo, and Hernandez, et al. I would consider him a three. 

Daniel Espino (CLE) – Another huge arm with that most desirable of traits, the ability to miss bats. Espino is just 20, and spent 2021 in A-ball with encouraging performances. Most recently, and perhaps most notably, he pitched into the seventh inning of a start for the first time in his pro career. He has a plus-plus fastball, and I love his curveball. He has a very good slider, and I think his change-up is coming. The question is, and has been, whether he can physically handle a starting pitcher's workload. He is smallish and not considered an ideal physical specimen, which combined with high velocity at a very young age earns you an injury risk label. I won't deny the risk is there, but I see a lot of positives in his mechanics. To me, he is efficient, more than an overthrower, and his lower body strength is an asset. The Indians are bringing him along cautiously, and hope his body continues to mature. If it does, he could actually add even more velocity.

Reid Detmers (LAA) – The Angels have some of the most exciting hitters in the game when everybody is healthy – Trout, Rendon and, of course, Shohei Ohtani – but they balance that out with some of the most ineffective pitching I have ever seen. Ohtani is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter, and Raisel Iglesias is a legitimate MLB closer. Everyone in between those two is pretty much cannon fodder. I think there is a chance Detmers could begin to change that. He was literally rushed to the majors with only 60 minor league innings under his belt. Not surprisingly, he wasn't ready. He has good, not great stuff, but he is capable of throwing quality strikes, and he can both miss bats and generate a lot of soft contact. He may suffer some, learning on the job, but at least he looks like a viable and competent mid/back-of-the-rotation starter. The Angels need at least one, preferably two, frontline arms to get Detmers properly slotted into their rotation, but if that happens and their position players get healthy, good things are possible.

Jack Leiter (TEX) – The top guy (in my book) in the 2021 draft class, I like just about everything I see from Leiter. He's another who comes from a pro baseball family – his dad Al was in MLB for something like 19 years – and I think guys with a similar pedigree come with a built-in boost to understanding the game. He has all the tools including a 70-grade fastball, a well-developed change-up and a plus slider. And, he just completed his sophomore season in college. He pitched for Vanderbilt, so he saw the best college talent regularly, and I roughly equate that to High-A minor league competition. Put that with his lineage, and, while he may not have a lot of projectability left, he is probably close to major league ready despite his young age. I'd like to see some innings at either Double-A or Triple-A or both, but if he fares reasonably well, let him try MLB.

Gunnar Hoglund (TOR) – He's the one pitcher I felt compared favorably with Leiter in this year's draft. Unfortunately, we will have to be patient in waiting for him to embark on his pro career. Hoglund dropped to 19th in the draft because he would miss this season, and probably all or most of next year following Tommy John surgery. He was drafted by the Pirates in 2018 but opted to go to college at Ole Miss instead. If not for the elbow injury, his stock would have clearly increased in value. I like "advanced" college pitchers – those with good stuff, of course, but who also demonstrate a highly developed ability to pitch rather than just throw, and Hoglund fits the description. If he recovers as expected from the surgery, I think he could move quickly through the Toronto system.

As you can imagine, there are quite a few other blue-chip prospects who didn't appear in the majors this season or pitched very few innings. Here are a just few other honorable mentions who received consideration (in no special order) for inclusion in the 2022 Parade: Cade Cavalli (WAS), Nick Lodolo  (CIN), George Kirby (SEA), Eric Pardinho (TOR), Edward Cabrera (MIA), Jordan Balazovic, (MIN), Emerson Hancock (SEA), Simeon Woods Richardson (TOR), Jackson Jobe (DET), Ian Seymour, (TB), Max Meyer (MIA), Drey Jameson (ARZ), Joe Ryan (MIN) and Josiah Gray (WAS).

That's a wrap. As always, remember, this year even more than ever before, the Parade is almost a living thing, constantly evolving and changing. I want to thank all of my regular readers and contributors for participating in the interactive comments and questions section! That is the best part of it for me. This marks the conclusion of my 11th season as a weekly columnist for Rotowire, and I'm already looking forward to 2022. I'm just crossing my fingers there will be an agreement worked out between the players and owners prior to the scheduled opening of spring training so hopefully we can dig in with enthusiasm when pitchers and catchers report next February. Be well my friends!