Mound Musings: Examining the Trade Deadline Deals

Mound Musings: Examining the Trade Deadline Deals

This article is part of our Mound Musings series.

The trade deadline has come and gone, and wow, what a ride! All the talk about a couple young superstars in Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, who did not move, for what would have been a considerable haul. Jack Flaherty did go, but some others in the next tier like Jameson Taillon still wear the same old jerseys. And, everybody was reportedly looking for pitching – not at all surprising given the many injuries and sub-par performances on the mounds this season – but there wasn't all that much starting pitching available. That didn't slow down all of the contenders. They cleaned out the handful of starters, then went to work stockpiling relief arms.

I think teams are again seeing the potential problems that arise as innings totals accumulate. That is contributing to more injuries, and undoubtedly creating ineffective pitchers who are simply running out of gas. Therefore, while quality was again important, there were some pitchers – both starters and relievers – who were added just to provide innings. Extra arms equal at least some rest for the pitchers you are counting on. That said, let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the key arms involved:

James Paxton to Boston:

As the trade window drug on, at least some of us were wondering if a trade deadline could come and go with nobody noticing. Paxton actually went fairly early as the pitching deep Dodgers DFA'd him and then dealt him to Boston. Currently in his 11th season,

The trade deadline has come and gone, and wow, what a ride! All the talk about a couple young superstars in Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, who did not move, for what would have been a considerable haul. Jack Flaherty did go, but some others in the next tier like Jameson Taillon still wear the same old jerseys. And, everybody was reportedly looking for pitching – not at all surprising given the many injuries and sub-par performances on the mounds this season – but there wasn't all that much starting pitching available. That didn't slow down all of the contenders. They cleaned out the handful of starters, then went to work stockpiling relief arms.

I think teams are again seeing the potential problems that arise as innings totals accumulate. That is contributing to more injuries, and undoubtedly creating ineffective pitchers who are simply running out of gas. Therefore, while quality was again important, there were some pitchers – both starters and relievers – who were added just to provide innings. Extra arms equal at least some rest for the pitchers you are counting on. That said, let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the key arms involved:

James Paxton to Boston:

As the trade window drug on, at least some of us were wondering if a trade deadline could come and go with nobody noticing. Paxton actually went fairly early as the pitching deep Dodgers DFA'd him and then dealt him to Boston. Currently in his 11th season, he actually pitched for the Red Sox just a couple years ago. Injuries have long been a factor in his performance, but when healthy he can still be moderately productive. Use him judiciously and watch the matchups.

Zach Eflin to Baltimore:

I've never been a huge Eflin fan. He did a fair job for the Phillies earlier in his career, but he tends to be too hittable for my taste. He moved to the Rays in 2023, and not too surprisingly enjoyed a career year (16-8, 1.02 WHIP, with a 3.50 ERA). This season, however, he has fallen into his old habits, allowing more hits than innings, which has seen his WHIP drift up to 1.16. It helps that he throws strikes so he doesn't put many more guys on base via the walk. He should post similar peripherals for the Orioles and will surely appreciate better run support from his new team.

Michael Lorenzen to Kansas City:

Finally, after the starting pitching market was quiet for so long, a little more than 24 hours before the deadline, the Royals acquired Lorenzen from Texas. After spending the first seven MLB seasons with the Reds, mostly as a reliever, this will be his fifth team in the last three years, with most of that time being spent as a starter. Actually, the Royals have run into injuries in their bullpen so it's possible he could return to relief work. He has always had trouble throwing strikes so his fantasy value is marginal.

Quinn Priester to Boston:

Another semi-interesting deal. Priester was acquired by Boston in exchange for infielder Nick Yorke. Both have been top-100 prospect but have slipped some the past couple years. I'm sure both teams are hoping the infamous "change in latitude" will allow them to regain some of their previous luster. I think the chances of that are actually a bit better for Yorke who might even get a look in Pittsburgh later this season. Priester is going to need to refine his command to ever have a positive impact at the major league level.

Erick Fedde to St. Louis:

This one fits like a glove. Injuries and inconsistent performance by various back-of-the-rotation options has kept the Cardinals from taking the division by storm. Fedde slots in near the top as either a No 1 or No. 2. The only concern would be his ability to keep up the performance he has brought about this year after parts of six lackluster seasons with the Nationals. I wouldn't expect a significant improvement over his stats from earlier this year, but he has been steady.

Yusei Kikuchi to Houston:

I love the "changes in latitudes" angle, with this deal, too. Kikuchi has performed very well at times, but just when you think he's ready to go, he goes alright, right in the tank. This year has been more of the same. He carried a 2.64 ERA through mid-May and promptly went into meltdown mode. Since then, his WHIP has ballooned from 1.05 to 1.34 (his ERA is now an ugly 4.75). Kikuchi is capable of very useful innings. Can the Astros unlock his talent on an ongoing basis? It's possible, but it's hard to say it's probable. He too good for his ugly numbers, so I'm inclined to take a shot with him.

Frankie Montas to Milwaukee:

As much as I like Montas' new home, I am more than a little concerned about the new surroundings he finds himself in. The Reds boasted a slightly more potent offense, but they played in a much more hitter-friendly park. And, defensively, his new team has plenty of holes. Normally, that would be just a mild concern, but Montas has been pitching to contact more and has struggled with command at times. More balls in play with more walks, and a shaky defense is a recipe for scary. Buyer beware. Conversely, Jakob Junis goes to Cincinnati. He has pitched reasonably well in relief, but the Reds could move him back into the rotation where he typically suffers from overexposure.

Trevor Rogers to Baltimore:

The Orioles continued to bolster their pitching staff, adding Rogers to the previously acquired Eflin in their starting rotation. In my book, this is potentially a big deal. Some will recall how good he looked in 2021 (2.64 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP) and it was genuine. He then fell off the wagon in 2022. His hopes of rebounding in 2023 were dashed early when he went down with a biceps strain followed by a partial lat tear. He ended up making just four starts. The optimism returned this year, but it hasn't transpired – yet. He's just 26, and I believe we haven't seen his best. The O's paid a lot. I'm buying.

Alex Cobb to Cleveland:

This is a tough one to assess. The 36-year-old veteran hasn't pitched in the majors at all in 2024 due to a laundry list of injuries. His last couple years with the Giants have been mediocre as he allowed more hits than innings pitched. He is reportedly ready to go, but frankly, it's hard to imagine him displaying improvement at this stage of his career.

Paul Blackburn to New York (NL):

He could see his value increase slightly moving from Oakland to the Mets, but he has been the definition of mediocrity throughout his career. He is too hittable, has iffy command and doesn't miss many bats. He's a groundball pitcher, which helps him get out of trouble at times, but he really doesn't offer a lot to a fantasy team.

Jack Flaherty to Los Angeles (NL):

IMHO he was the best starting pitcher to get dealt. Interestingly, he went to the Dodgers who have enough starters hurt to film an episode of M.A.S.H. but most of them – including Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler, are due back soon. Is the acquisition of Flaherty a sign that the Dodgers brain trust isn't completely convinced they will have the number of healthy starting pitchers they need? The rich get richer, and you can add another legit ace to the Dodgers roster.

Martin Perez to San Diego:

The Padres have been using a 4-man rotation simply because they didn't have a practical arm to pencil into the fifth slot. Perez fits that need more or less. He had a pretty successful season in 2022 with the Rangers, but other than that season, he's been back-of-the-rotation cannon fodder. Pitching his home games in PETCO Park could help a little but probably not enough to make him fantasy relevant.

And, in the bullpen, there were many moves of note …

A.J. Puk to Arizona:

While the starting pitching got off to a slow start, it didn't take long at all for the relief pitchers to begin moving. Last Thursday evening, someone finally changed uniforms. The Marlins sent reliever A.J. Puk to the Diamondbacks in exchange for a couple minor leaguers including first baseman Deyvison De Los Santos. Arizona's pen, including closer Paul Sewald, has been somewhat erratic, which could get Puk, who has been on a roll, a look in the ninth inning.

Seranthony Dominguez to Baltimore:

For a long time, like four or five years, he has been a stable piece of the Phillies bullpen, but he never got a real shot at closing as the team generally preferred the freedom of using him at any given point in a game, even as the closer of the day stumbled. This season he hasn't been as sharp so he punched his ticket for Baltimore. Both these teams are in the playoff hunt, so it's not a buyer/seller transaction. This is a classic "changes in latitudes" boost. I look for Dominguez to benefit.

Yimi Garcia to Seattle:

Garcia was the first in Toronto's pre-playoff housecleaning. When Jordan Romano got hurt in early June, he even spent some time closing, albeit not really fulltime as he was hurt on and off himself. He's not a true closer, and he will usually be asked to pitch in a primary set-up role in Seattle while Andres Munoz handles the ninth inning. He is likely to serve as the backup closer should Munoz need a day off.

Ryne Stanek to New York (NL):

Personally, I thought Stanek was miscast in Seattle where he was asked to close if the opponent was sending a weaker part of its lineup to the plate in the ninth inning. It does make sense, but in most cases, I think bullpen arms prefer an actual role, whether that be a set-up job in the eighth inning or a closer's gig in the ninth. The Mets, and Edwin Diaz, will make sure he pitches almost exclusively in the seventh or eighth.

Nate Pearson to Chicago (NL):

This one caught me off guard. I knew the Blue Jays were sellers, but I expected the Cubs to also fall into that category. They both are. But, the Cubs acquired veteran reliever Pearson in what appears to be another "changes in latitudes" flyer. A former No. 1 pick, he has floated between the rotation and bullpen, in the majors and the minors, but despite flashes, he has never approached his ceiling. Maybe now?

Carlos Estevez to Philadelphia:

I felt like there were three or four big gun relievers that might move. Estevez was the first of those to find a new home. He was enjoying a breakout season with the Angels, dropping his WHIP from 1.49 in 2023 to a microscopic 0.74 this year. That's especially impressive for an eight-year veteran. His addition to their bullpen should allow current closer(s) righty Jeff Hoffman and lefty Jose Alvarado to move into fulltime set-up roles. Both are better equipped to handle those innings. A huge boost for the Phillies.

Jason Adam to San Diego:

Jason Adam was a nondescript bullpen arm over his first few seasons, but the Rays saw some things they liked and acquired him from the Cubs prior to the 2022 season. He was pretty much an instant success, splitting time between set-up duties and some closing. He's always had good stuff and he generally fit well into the Rays' flex bullpen. I think he'll be able to modestly continue that success with the Padres, albeit in a more conventional set-up role. Of note, the Rays received pitcher Dylan Lesko in this trade. He has worked his way up to High-A and still struggles with command, but he could have a future.

Michael Kopech to Los Angeles (NL):

It was a three-team deal for the Cardinals (they get Fedde), the Dodgers (they get Kopech) and the White Sox (they get closer to the 1962 Mets record of 120 losses in a single season). Kopech has unquestionable closer stuff including a moving fastball that routinely touches triple digits, to go with Triple-A command that has produced an ugly 1.35 WHIP this year. The Dodgers are known for taking pitchers to a higher level. If it happens again, watch out, this guy could be a monster.

Jalen Beeks to Pittsburgh:

In yet another bullpen deal, the Pirates acquired Beeks from the Rockies to reinforce their bullpen. He has actually saved nine games for Colorado this season, but he'll likely serve in a set-up role and provide lefty insurance for closer David Bednar and primary backup Aroldis Chapman. He could see a rare save chance when those two both need a day off, but this pen is pretty deep, so his fantasy value in most leagues that don't count holds (and even in those it's iffy) probably takes a significant hit.

Mark Leiter to New York (AL):

He has been a fairly well-hidden asset for the Cubs, but now he'll bathe in the bright lights of New York City. He's one of those guys who can blow through a lineup if nobody finds their way on base, but can struggle with runners on. He doesn't have a big power arm, but he can keep hitters off balance. I don't think he's likely to do any closing for the Yankees, but he adds depth in the set-up role.

Lucas Sims to Boston:

Sims has a live arm, but he sometimes has problems finding the strike zone, and he has some durability issues that can limit his usage. But, think about, Kenley Jansen has been inconsistent (and rumored to be going back home to the Dodgers), and Sims has 12 saves over the past four seasons. Right now he's probably a set-up guy, but that resume makes him a dark horse to get involved in closing duties.

Lucas Erceg to Kansas City:

The Royals appear to be going for it. They added reliever Hunter Harvey, swingman Michael Lorenzen and now reliever Lucas Erceg. When Mason Miller got hurt, Erceg was the favorite to take over closer duties in Oakland. Now he is at least even money to take over that role from James McArthur with the Royals. He's a legitimate closer, and fits well with the excitement factory led by Bobby Witt.

Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing to San Diego:

Even though they perhaps needed him less than other teams, the Padres were willing to pay the Marlins' rather exorbitant price for Scott. They gave up a blue-chip pitching prospect in Robby Snelling. The southpaw has been one of the most reliable closers this year, right there with Padres current closer Robert Suarez. I suppose it's possible he could replace Suarez, but that doesn't make much sense. It's more likely he serves as the primary set-up guy and gets an occasional save chance as needed.

Luis Garcia to Boston:

This equates to Lucas Sims version 2.0 – a little closing experience, decent stuff and an insurance policy for Kenley Jansen who was not moved prior to the deadline. So, now he's probably a set-up guy, but like Sims, he's a sleeper to get involved in closing duties.

Dylan Floro to Arizona:

Floro should be relatively buried in a deep Arizona pen, making his chances of being a fantasy asset fairly slim. I included him in the capsules because he does have 32 saves on his resume, so he does have late-inning experience. Barring some major pen troubles, saves are unlikely, although he could collect a few holds.

Endgame Odyssey:

The post-deadline Odyssey has a few closer questions to explore beyond those mentioned above. With Estevez now in Philadelphia, the most frequently mentioned potential replacement was Luis Garcia, but he later went to Boston, leaving Ben Joyce with his huge arm jumping to the top of the page for me. He figures heavily in the saves mix now. Kopech is gone, so somebody will need to pitch the ninth inning for the White Sox. My best guess is it will eventually be Tanner Banks (oops until he was dealt to Philadelphia, so the default choice might be John Brebbia) but keep in mind the Sox have as many blown saves as wins, In Toronto, Chad Green was not dealt, and with Jordan Romano out until at least September, and Yimi Garcia now in Seattle, he's the last man standing in the saves line.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brad Johnson
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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