Mound Musings: Bullpens With Unanswered Questions

Today is Opening Day and, hopefully the beginning of a 162-game season. YES! It's Opening Day. Almost every pitcher is on the watch list. It's difficult to watch all the live baseball I want to see, but there is still work to be done. Many leagues have already completed their drafts. Others will be happening soon, but draft day is just the beginning of a fantasy season, and no place will likely offer more opportunities to profit than the bullpens.

Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season was challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would field a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and have a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with bridging the game to the closer. By now, most roles would be fairly we defined. Of course, there could still be changes as the season progressed, but there would probably be a Plan A in place. This year, perhaps more than ever, is different.

Questions abound regarding the pitchers ready to compete in games that count. With last year's abbreviated schedule, most starting pitchers only made 10 to 12 starts. That equates to maybe 60 or 70 innings, and traditional wisdom suggests pitchers should not far exceed their innings total from the previous season. What does that mean for starters who might normally expect to approach 200 innings – coincidentally, the same pitchers who are being counted on by their fantasy team owners? How will they hold up over a full season? Managing workloads could mean expanded rotations, shorter outings, occasional skipped turns and certainly a heavier reliance on bullpens, and that's our focus for this week.

The bottom line: Better teams, with more quality pitching depth, barring injuries, are usually both more predictable and more productive with regard to providing useful fantasy statistics. Ideally, you could fill your staff with pitchers from better teams with the depth to maintain generally static roles for their bullpen arms. Unfortunately, those guys tend to be expensive on draft day, and almost never appear on the waiver ire. Therefore, we need to look at some teams, in what seems like turmoil, to hopefully find some scrap heap value.

Let's review some bullpens with potential question marks as we dive into the 2021 season:

Diamondbacks – This looks like a case of something old and something new. It is common for managers to prefer a pitcher with closing experience to handle the ninth inning, even when another option might appear to be a better choice. Early on, Stefan Crichton was considered the favorite for save chances, but now veteran Joakim Soria might be first in line. Soria is clearly not the dominant arm he was in 2008 and 2010 when he saved more than 40 games, but the wily veteran still knows how to get hitters out when it counts. He will probably have to pitch his way out of the saves mix while sharing the duties with Crichton. I'm not completely sold on Soria, so don't totally rule out onetime "closer of the future" Kevin Ginkel. His results have ranged from encouraging to disappointing, sometimes in back-to-back games, so he needs to build confidence to get into the consideration set. The veteran, Soria, probably opens the year as the primary ninth-inning guy, and he could become more entrenched if he avoids frequent meltdowns. A possible guy to keep an eye on, too, is J.B. Bukauskas. He's now being developed as a reliever, and he has high-leverage stuff if he progresses. He's a better thought for 2022, but monitor his work.

Rangers – Another "closer of the future" has spent a couple seasons trying to make the future now. Jose Leclerc has often shown the raw skill set to be a major league closer, but he followed those glimpses with stretches of utter inefficiency. Maybe those ugly stretches were influenced by health issues? The future is now on hold until at least mid-2022 as Leclerc rehabs from Tommy John surgery. That leaves some question marks in the Texas bullpen. There are – or will be – several candidates. Two of the possibilities, Jonathan Hernandez and Joely Rodriguez, are currently hurt, so I think we can narrow it down to Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush. Both are in their mid-30s so they aren't kids, but Kennedy appears to have the better resume. He found new life in his career when he moved to the bullpen and saved 30 games in 2019. Bush actually saved 10 games in 2017, but he has never consistently harnessed his once considerable upside. Kennedy isn't the long-term answer at age 36, but he should get the bulk of the chances at least until Rodriguez (mid-late April) or Hernandez (mid-late May) can get back on the mound.

Giants – The Giants will likely head into 2021 with a "Help Wanted" sign hanging in the bullpen. They list several pitchers as possibilities to see save chances, but none of them are what you would consider top-shelf candidates. The most promising endgamer is probably Reyes Moronta, but he underwent shoulder surgery and missed all of 2020. He has a big arm, but he needs to prove he is healthy and that he can throw strikes. Submariner Tyler Rogers and perhaps even Jarlin Garcia or Matt Wisler could also get a look, but they aren't the answer. That leaves veteran southpaw, Jake McGee. I remember McGee looking very good before landing in Colorado, where relief pitchers go to meltdown. He was back to looking very good last year with the Dodgers, so he gets my vote, at least early on. However, McGee offers no guarantee, and he is 34-years-old, so this is a story with no clear ending. Stay tuned.

Indians – Certainly not in every case, but frequently, when teams refer to a "closer by committee" approach to the late innings, they are actually saying they want to keep their options open until they are confident their intended closer has established himself as the right choice. I feel like the Indians are right there. When last year's saves leader, Brad Hand, moved on, many felt the job would be inherited by James Karinchak with Nick Wittgren serving as the primary eighth-inning guy. I'm not convinced that was the plan. Karinchak has pretty good stuff, but he can be erratic. And, I think people might have forgotten about the reliever with the nastiest stuff in their pen. Emmanuel Clase missed some time with injuries and a suspension, but he is a prototype closer, he will be part of a trio "committee" to start the season. I pursued Clase in every draft possible, and I think it's only a matter of time before he emerges as the go-to guy to close games.

Padres – Unlike most of the teams discussed here, the Padres actually have a fairly loaded team with what should be a deeper bullpen. However, they are a bit banged up and that has some role designations in a state of flux. Mark Melancon is perhaps a slight favorite to pitch the ninth, but others like Emilio Pagan and Drew Pomeranz have been mentioned as possible alternatives. This is not really surprising. Melancon routinely generates some doubt based primarily on his less than dominating stuff. He doesn't break radar guns, but he pretty consistently has been at his best when finishing games, and that says a lot. I really think the Padres want him to take control of the endgame, freeing up Pagan and Pomeranz to do what they are best suited for – bridging the gap with versatility, between the starter and the closer. Pagan and Keone Kela have some closing experience, so there are insurance policies in hand should Melancon get hurt or struggle, but I anticipate a solid season from him.

Rays – I'm not what you would call a Rays fan, but I sure admire their ability to stay competitive in the rugged AL East. A smaller-market team without the vast financial resources of their division rivals, they hang in there with pure creativity, and nowhere is that more evident than in their pitching staff. Openers and piggybacks and very versatile bullpen arms are all a part of it, so be ready to think outside the box on this one. I have been touting Nick Anderson as the likely primary closer in Tampa Bay, but that idea has been put on hold as Anderson will miss the at least half of the season after suffering a ligament tear in his elbow. This organization is still likely to land on its feet. Keep in mind, they like using key guys whenever the game is on the line, no matter what inning they might be in, and they have adequate options in guys like Diego Castillo, Pete Fairbanks, and perhaps even Chaz Roe, but I believe predicting who will close on any given day might be nearly impossible. If I had to own one, I might slightly lean to Fairbanks.

Phillies – The Phillies bullpen was horrible in 2020. Wait. Let me rephrase that. The Phillies bullpen was epically horrible. A 7.06 ERA was one for the record books. They went to great strides to improve the pen, and I definitely think they made progress, but questions remain regarding the ninth inning. The biggest additions – Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado, and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Kintzler, are all better-suited to more versatile set-up roles. And, as a result, the team somewhat surprisingly announced that holdover Hector Neris would continue to serve as the closer. Neris actually has closer stuff, but he is prone to meltdowns (a 1.71 WHIP and 4.57 ERA in 2020), and, perhaps of greater concern, he doesn't always seem to have the invaluable trait of a short memory, leading to multiple meltdowns. Bradley is probably the best option to close, but he's also the best option to pitch almost any inning(s) after the starter departs. He and Alvarado should be able to get the game to Neris often enough, but I have my doubts as to how successful he will be in finishing it. I think I want Bradley as a handcuff.

These aren't all the questions by any means, but they are some situations to watch. As always, we'll keep tabs on possible bullpen adjustments throughout the season in the Endgame Odyssey section of the Musings, but for now, It's Opening Day … Enjoy!