Matt Wisler

Wisler revived his career with the Twins and could have a more prominent bullpen role after signing with San Francisco. Wisler was a curious waiver claim by the Twins after the 2019 season due to his 5.62 ERA. The Twins liked his 4.24 FIP and a 11.1 K/9, but more importantly saw that they could improve his approach by using his slider more frequently. He threw 83 percent sliders last season with astonishing results, finishing with a 1.07 ERA and 32.7% strikeout rate. Batters had just a .219 wOBA against his slider, and the pitch helped him reach the 96th percentile in xSLG allowed, according to Baseball Savant. He had a career best season at age 27, which made be hard to duplicate given his uneven career and career-low .231 BABIP and 6.1% HR/FB. However, he'll be pitching in a favorable home park and won't have strong competition for late-inning assignments.

The Reds have a lot of starters that haven't taken the leap and don't appear especially close to doing so, but it's not for a lack of pedigree. Whether they've been acquired early in the draft like Robert Stephenson, or acquired via trade like Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed and Lucas Sims, there's a lot of early picks that just haven't taken root as reliable major-league starters. Perhaps the Reds are approaching it the wrong way, however, and would be better off emulating the Rays, A's, Rangers and even Brewers, adopting the opener model. Maybe that would open the door to a whole level of effectiveness for some of these erstwhile starters. Wisler could fall under that broad penumbra -- as a starter he just doesn't miss enough bats to be effective in today's game (career 16.4 K%). As an opener presumably he could be more of a max-effort guy, achieving a level he won't reach as a starter.

Wisler has been tried in the rotation, but did not miss enough bats. He has now been tried in relief, but he cannot strand runners nor can he keep the ball in the yard. In just under 300 innings as a major leaguer, he has allowed a 1.4 HR/9 while walking just over 3.0 BB/9. That dangerous combination has two shelters: low leverage mop-up duty in the big leagues, or any role in Triple-A. Wisler needs to find a changeup or a cutter in a hurry to help against lefties because they have crushed him over the past three seasons to the tune of a .289/.380/.505 line. You can let Wisler stay on the free-agent pile until he adds that new pitch because what he is currently bringing to the mound is not going to cut it in any fantasy format.

From a bottom line standpoint, Wisler was essentially the same pitcher we saw in 2015, but he went from a heavy platoon split (great vs. righties) to about average against both sides. Despite what the OPS says, he still has a platoon split. He had a 5.5 K/BB ratio against righties, but just a 1.3 mark against lefties. In fairness, it's up from 0.7 in 2015. His fastball just doesn't work against lefties. Wisler doesn't command it well enough when he's in the zone, which makes him start nibbling and gets him in further trouble. The slider is his put-away pitch against righties and lefties and remains his key building block. There's enough of a foundation here to bet on in deeper leagues. He posted a 63 percent quality start rate, well above the 47 percent league average. Plus, Wisler was a two-time Top 100 Prospect coming up. Fortunately, it won't cost you anything to take a shot in deep leagues.

A rookie who came up and didn’t dominate the league right away? Must be awful! That’s the mentality some will have about Wisler only a year after he was a unanimous top prospect, reaching as high as top-40 on some lists. As is the case with a lot of young pitchers, Wisler was horrific in a handful of starts and it tainted the whole bunch with his near-5.00 ERA. He allowed 21 of his 57 earned runs in nine innings over three starts – or 36 percent of his season earned runs in eight percent of his innings. He had a 3.24 ERA in the other 100 innings. One of those was a seven earned run massacre in Wrigley when the wind was blowing at a 15 MPH clip… just sayin’. The best part of his season was that the plus slider was as advertised with a .510 OPS, 10 points better than Madison Bumgarner’s from the time of Wisler’s call-up (June 19th). Keep him on your radar and take a $1 flier in deeper leagues with a reserve list.

Wisler started his 2014 campaign at Double-A San Antonio, but needed just six starts to prove that he was ready to move up to Triple-A. In 26 starts between 2013 and 2014 in the Texas League, Wisler carried a 138:33 K:BB with a 2.80 ERA and 1.067 WHIP over 135 innings, and he posted equal or better numbers at each of his previous two full-season stops. The Pacific Coast League brought new challenges, as he became much more susceptible to the long ball in the hitter-friendly parks on the circuit, and was forced to improve his changeup when his slider was ineffective in the dry conditions of El Paso. He still maintained an impressive ability to miss bats for a pitcher his age (7.8 K/9) and his walk rate was still acceptable (2.8 BB/9), but the Padres held off on giving him a taste of the big league action late last season despite adding him to the roster in September. Wisler set a new career-high with 146.2 innings last season, making it likely that he'll be on a limit in the 180-inning range in 2015, but he could be the first starter called up to San Diego if he fails to secure a rotation spot during spring training.

In 2013, Wisler thoroughly dominated both High-A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio with well-placed fastballs and curves, combining for 26 starts. 12 of his 20 outings at San Antonio followed the division's all-star break, during which he went 5-2 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.903 WHIP, and 67:13 K:BB ratio in 62 innings. Considering the late-season run, the Padres may place the 21-year-old righty immediately at Triple-A Tucson to begin the upcoming campaign.