Mound Musings: Examining Trade Deadline Repercussions

The non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. Everybody was looking for pitching – not at all surprising given the many injuries and sub-par performances on the mounds this season – but there weren't all that many starting pitchers available who were perceived to be difference makers. That didn't slow down all of the contenders however; they just shifted their focus to hopefully bolster their bullpens. Let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the key arms involved:

Cole Hamels to Chicago (NL):

Hamels moves to the Cubs in the midst of a disappointing season with Texas. He has been a winner throughout his career, but he has been haunted by the long ball the past couple of seasons (41 in his last 44 starts). His fastball is down a tick this season, and it would be reasonable to ask how much the 34-year-old has left in the tank. Don't consider this a prediction, but a 34-year-old with a 3.39 career ERA (Hamels' career ERA is 3.43) found new life after being dealt to a contending team in 2017. His name was Justin Verlander. I do think Hamels could step it up somewhat down the stretch.

J.A. Happ to New York (AL):

The Yankees aren't going to concede the AL East to the hated Red Sox, so they went out and got southpaw, veteran Happ from the Blue Jays. I have always liked Happ, and so do major league managers, as he seems to have become a hired gun for late season playoff pushes. An experienced starter will certainly help the Yankees, who love lefties because they enjoy a bit of an advantage when pitching in a home park that favors lefty hitters. He has already made one sparkling start, and he'll definitely appreciate the run support he's likely to get once he returns from the hoof and mouth disease he has apparently contracted – the ailment that just cost Noah Syndergaard a start.

Kevin Gausman to Atlanta:

I don't know if this is the event that will bring out the best in Gausman, but it certainly qualifies as a huge opportunity under my "changes in latitudes" angle. Gausman has been inconsistent while flashing occasional top tier potential for an organization that struggles to fully develop their most talented young pitchers. He moves from a poor team in full rebuild mode to one of the most exciting teams in baseball, loaded with energy and blossoming stars. That is often a recipe for a mind-blowing breakout, and I'm sure regular readers are aware of how much I would hope to see just that.

Chris Archer to Pittsburgh:

Archer, with his very team-friendly contract, going to the Pirates was perhaps the most eye-opening pitcher deal of this year's deadline moves. Pittsburgh paid a big price in outfielder Austin Meadows and fireballer Tyler Glasnow (see below), so they obviously believe they can unlock Archer's significant potential. He can overthrow at times, and his changeup still comes and goes, but Pirates' pitching mentor, Ray Searage, has found gold in pitchers with far less natural ability. It may or may not happen overnight, but Archer just became a lot more interesting to me. I will be monitoring him closely.

Tyler Glasnow to Tampa Bay:

Glasnow might be the most intriguing arm to change uniforms on deadline day. I love the upside of this guy; always have. Keep in mind he was included in discussions regarding the best Pirates' pitching prospects with Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. He has an electric mid-high 90s fastball, a very deceptive changeup, and a wicked curve, all of which have allowed him to pile up 321 strikeouts in 244 innings, with a sub-2.00 ERA across parts of three seasons at Triple-A Indianapolis. Somewhat inexplicably, when he has come up to the show, he seems to lose the ability to command that devastating arsenal. I have no doubt the Rays dream of Glasnow in their rotation (he did start Wednesday for Tampa Bay, but he's been pitching in relief and he'll need to be stretched back out), so if they find his beast switch, and manage to turn it on, he and Blake Snell could be a very formidable pair at the top of their depth chart.

Lance Lynn to New York (AL):

I included Lynn here although I will admit I don't know what his role is likely to be with the Yankees. My best guess is he will serve as a swingman insurance policy. With Minnesota, he was awful (5.10 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) so he's not the best option to start unless the team feels they can turn him around. He does have some tools, so it's not impossible, but I think he will likely serve as a long reliever, making an occasional spot start if injuries pop up (it was thought he might fill in for Happ if he misses his next assignment, but he was used in long relief Wednesday).

And in the bullpen, there were several interesting moves …

Joakim Soria to Milwaukee:

Soria was just one of several closers who took a hit to their fantasy value after being dealt prior to the deadline. After logging 16 saves for the White Sox, he was sent to Milwaukee where saves are likely to be a rare occurrence as he likely falls behind both primary closer Corey Knebel and set-up man Jeremy Jeffress (who may be pushing Knebel) in the pecking order. However, when one door closes, another opens, and someone will finish games on the South Side. Nate Jones is on the DL (what's new), leaving Jace Fry as the most likely, albeit currently shaky, candidate.

Brad Brach to Atlanta:

He served as the Orioles closer while Zach Britton was out and returned to the role when Britton was sent to the Yankees. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, the role reprisal was short-lived, as Brach himself was dealt to the Braves. He's probably best-suited to serve as a set-up man, but saves aren't completely out of the question. With Arodys Vizcaino out with an injury, and current ninth inning guy A.J. Minter frequently trying to find the strike zone, Brach potentially could find himself in the saves mix. The Braves hope Minter succeeds. In Baltimore, assuming they generate an occasional lead to protect, Mychal Givens is the odds-on favorite to get the ball in the ninth inning.

Ken Giles to Toronto:

The Blue Jays felt compelled to relocate closer Roberto Osuna, and Giles was the key piece in the return when Osuna was sent to Houston. He has a huge arm, averaging 97 mph on his fastball, but he has failed to harness that fastball or consistently display a closer's composure. It got so bad, he was sent to Triple-A Fresno a couple weeks ago but will no doubt get another chance north of the border. Toronto has been biding time with solid set-up man Ryan Tepera, and occasionally, Tyler Clippard, being asked to finish games, but neither is the answer. Is Giles the answer for which they are looking? He has the skill set but he will need to prove himself. The change of scenery should help.

Roberto Osuna to Houston:

Osuna was involved in an off-field altercation that resulted in him being suspended for almost half of the current season. While his ability to close games is not in question, Toronto felt it would be in the organization's best interest to see him plying his trade in another city. He's eligible to return from suspension Sunday (August 5) and will likely join the Astros that day. Houston is in it to win it, and assuming the media distractions can be kept to a minimum, Osuna should soon supplant Hector Rondon as the team's primary end-gamer. If everything goes as planned, he's still a top tier closer.

Keone Kela to Pittsburgh:

Kela emerged as a very competent closer in Texas this season, converting 24 of 25 save chances. However, the Rangers are in a rebuilding project, and his success made him attractive to the Pirates as they try to find their way into the playoffs this year. From a fantasy perspective, Kela's value takes a major hit. He's likely to be the first alternate to close, but Felipe Vazquez is firmly entrenched in the ninth-inning gig, so Kela will only get an occasional opportunity to collect a save when he needs a day off. In Texas, with both Kela and Jake Diekman gone, I think Jose Leclerc will get the first call, and he has the skill set to make it work. Alex Claudio is probably Plan B, but I'll pass on him.

And, on the fringe:

Obviously, there were minor deals that probably won't have a lot of fantasy impact. Besides Lynn, who will need to prove something to me, there weren't too many starting pitchers who figure to have an immediate impact for their new organizations at the major league level. Matt Wisler is now with the Reds after being buried in the Braves pitching pool. He has been largely unimpressive in more than 324 innings, so a big step forward is probably not in the cards. Perhaps the best of the minor leaguers close to making the show is Taylor Hearn who went to Texas in the Kela deal. He's done well at Double-A Altoona, and the Rangers need starting pitching. Maybe the big lefty gets a look.

There were quite a few other relievers dealt at the deadline. For example, the D'Backs bolstered their already deep bullpen with experienced set-up men Jake Diekman and Brad Ziegler. The Dodgers added John Axford, and the Rockies tried to shore up their pen with Seung Hwan Oh. The Cubs picked up Brandon Kintzler, and the Phillies got their lefty in Aaron Loup. These guys might be some help to their major league teams, but in non-hold leagues, they likely have limited fantasy value.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• It seems the key to Mariners southpaw James Paxton might be a little extra rest occasionally. He went on the disabled list just before the All-Star break with back inflammation and returned 18 days later to befuddle the Astros. When he's on and pitching ahead in counts, he can be as dominant as any pitcher in the game.

• The Giants (and his fantasy owners) got devastating news when Johnny Cueto left his most recent start with continuing elbow soreness. After getting off to a great start, Cueto has been on the disabled list more than he has been healthy, and Tommy John surgery will now cost him the rest of this year and next.

• Cleveland ace, Corey Kluber looked much better in his most recent start after struggling with a minor knee injury during much of July. He missed the All-Star game to receive treatment on his balky right knee and was then drubbed in his first outing after the break, so it was a relief to see him back in form.

• The Cardinals welcomed Carlos Martinez back to their rotation, but then waved goodbye less than five innings into his return start. Martinez suffered what is being described as a "mild shoulder strain," but shoulder woes have already cost him time this year, so the team may be very cautious with him going forward.

• In a surprise announcement, the Red Sox placed Chris Sale on the disabled list with "mild" shoulder inflammation. The obvious good news is the mild description, but shoulder woes always make me nervous. Word is he's only expected to miss one start, so hopefully this is more a case of giving their ace a breather.

• The Nationals didn't peddle Bryce Harper at the deadline and instead stated they are committed to winning now. Any playoff push will assuredly rely heavily on the healthy return of Stephen Strasburg who is currently out with a nerve impingement in his neck. I think he'll be back soon, perhaps this weekend.
  

Outside the changes brought about by deadline deals, there appear to be a few others transitions occurring. Robert Gsellman was thought to the heir to the closer's role for the Mets when Jeurys Familia was traded, but Anthony Swarzak is making a play for the gig. I'm not convinced it will last indefinitely, but the Royals are currently employing Wily Peralta as their closer. There isn't much to challenge him if he can avoid any cataclysmic meltdowns. Cody Allen is probably still the primary closer in Cleveland, but it appears the team will also occasionally use Brad Hand. The Cubs did land Kintzler, but Pedro Strop is serving as a placeholder until Brandon Morrow returns. Shane Greene is still in Detroit, so he likely will maintain the role as closer while Joe Jimenez continues his seasoning trials. The Cardinals didn't move Bud Norris and they didn't add an end gamer, so we could see the beginning of an audition for flamethrower Jordan Hicks fairly soon.