MLB: One Man's Trash... (Week 11)

During the season, I'm going to look at some of the players being dropped by fantasy managers to see if their decisions were a little brash. Some of the players dropped will provide fantasy value going forward. Someone who will remain nameless decided it was a good idea to drop Robbie Ray and Tyler O'Neill last year in the first couple of weeks.

The players I'm looking at this week are a mix of immediate adds and those who are just a tweak or two away from taking a step forward.

For the information, I'm going to focus on players dropped at the NFBC and CBS. Both Yahoo and Fantrax's add and drop numbers are based on the past day or so and can be dominated by streaming starters. CBS and NFBC are based on the past week. 

As a general rule, I will stay away from injured players and just focus on players expected to play.

Hitters

Bryson Stott (114 NFBC drops, -18% at CBS)

There has been love for Stott each time he's been given an opportunity to start. Each time, he's been a disappointment. The problem is that he's just not been good in the majors. So far he's hit .161/.218/.270 with four homers and one stolen base in 147 plate appearances after being great in Triple-A the past two seasons (.833 OPS in 2021, .986 OPS in 2022). The minor-league numbers have not translated to the majors for a few reasons. 

First, he's just showing no power, with all his Statcast batted-ball metrics ranking near the bottom of the league.

He's hitting nothing hard and, for some unknown reason, he's hitting everything up in the air. The four players who have a similar 19.9-degree launch angle to him are Joey Gallo, Patrick Wisdom, Chris Taylor and Alex Bregman. Each one of them has hit the ball harder than league average. Stott's weak flyballs turn into easy outs (.189 BABIP).

Additionally, he's selling out for those cans of corn with a 26% K%. The strikeout rate isn't bad if you're hitting 30 homers in a season. When you are going to hit closer to 15, the low batting average is felt even more. 

Simply one of two things needs to happen for him to be a better hitter. He needs to either develop above-league-average power or lower his launch angle quite a bit. 

Juan Yepez (66 NFBC drops, -5% at CBS)

With the return of Tyler O'Neill, Yepez headed to the bench and remained there until O'Neill went back on the IL (hamstring). Yepez seems like a nice add until O'Neill returns. 

On the season, the 24-year-old Yepez is hitting a respectable .285/.338/.467 with six homers and zero steals while being qualified at first and outfield. When he's headed to the bench this season, it has not been because he was on a cold streak. He was hitting better in June (.823 OPS) than in May (.796 OPS). 

He is not showing any major holes in his swing (21% K%) and has league-average power. Maybe that is part of his problem. Nothing in his hitting profile stands out. 

When that average hitting ability is paired with an inability to be an above-average defensive player, he gets pushed to the bench. The team already has a DH (Pujols) and an All-Star first baseman (Goldschmidt).

If Yepez is playing, he will continue to be fantasy relevant in 12-team or deeper leagues with league-average hitting and his outfield eligibility. If he starts losing playing time, he needs to immediately head to the waiver wire. 

Trevor Larnach (61 NFBC drops, -3% at CBS)

Larnach is producing right in line with his projections with five homers, zero steals and a .236/.311/.414 slash line. His walk and strikeout rates are almost identical to his career numbers. The deal is that he has not had consistent production. 

Until the end of May, he had an .890 OPS fueled by a .413 BABIP. So far in June, he has a .167 BABIP leading to a .450 OPS. Anyone with K% and BB% marks north of 30% and 10%, respectively, for their career is going to see their production tied to the ups and downs of small-sample BABIP.

Probably the best way to "time" his hot and cold streaks is to focus on his opponents. So far this season, he has a .779 OPS against teams with a losing record. Against teams with a winning record, a .642 OPS. 

Larnach was probably over-rostered when he was on a hot streak. To predict the next one, track his opponents and stream against weak pitching staffs (see Royals and Tigers).

Jonathan Schoop (52 NFBC drops, -2% at CBS)

I can see why some fantasy managers are moving on, with Schoop having a sub-.200 average this far into the season. Besides a career-low .227 BABIP, none of his core stats (K%, BB%, GB%, Pull%, etc) are out of place compared to his career numbers. 

The deal with Schoop: his batting average has been up and down and this season's low isn't out of the norm. 

Over the past week, he has had a .259 average with only a .286 BABIP fueling it.

Another factor hurting his fantasy value is that he's hit just six homers (9% HR/FB in 2022, career 16% HR/FB) but has a career-high 42% Statcast Hard Hit%.  It's tough to ride out streaky players, and it looks like he's bottomed out. 

Starters 

Yusei Kikuchi (123 NFBC drops, -10% at CBS)

There was little reason to roster Kikuchi coming into the season and there is none right now. My issue coming into the season was that his walk rate (3.8 BB/9 in 2020, 3.6 BB/9 in 2021) was too high and a WHIP killer. He's decided to double down and raise the rate to 5.6 BB/9, pushing his WHIP up to 1.52. 

Additionally, he's giving up a ton of home runs (1.8 HR/9 in 2022, career 1.7 HR/9). The combination of walks and home runs means an ERA near 5.00 (4.94 ERA in 2022, career 4.97 ERA). 

Finally, because he's giving up so many runs, he's not going far enough into games to get win (two this season). Of his 13 starts, he's only made it to the fifth inning in five of them.

The one item managers can dream on is his 10 K/9. The strikeouts are legit. Kikuchi throws a 95-mph fastball (10 SwStr%), a slider (17% SwStr%) and a changeup (17% SwStr%). 

However, the strikeouts are not enough to offset all the bad. He's just unrosterable at this point.  

Graham Ashcraft (114 NFBC drops, -14% at CBS)

I'm a little surprised to see the 24-year-old Ashcraft on the drop list since I've been targeting him as an add. Maybe part of the drops are from not wanting to start him at the Giants and not knowing his role once Nick Lodolo (back) comes off the IL. For the possible loss of a rotation spot, I can understand dropping him, but not based on his talent. 

So far this season, he has a 3.51 ERA (3.91 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, 56% GB% and just a 5.1 K/9. The lack of strikeouts is confusing since he has 97-mph fastballs (four-seamer, sinker). Both fastballs generate a good number of groundballs, but the four-seamer (7% SwStr%, 62% GB%) misses more bats than the sinker (3% SwStr%, 84% GB%). 

Besides the two fastballs, he also throws a popup-generating slider (13% SwStr%, 28% GB%). When the slider is paired with his fastballs, he generates a ton of weak contact (0.8 HR/9, .261 BABIP).

The mid-50% GB% puts him in elite company among qualified pitchers: 

• Logan Webb: 57% GB%
• Sandy Alcantara: 54% GB%
• Kyle Wright: 53% GB%

That's not bad company.

While Ashcraft won't generate a ton of strikeouts, the rest of his profile points to a successful major-league pitcher. 

Alex Faedo (99 NFBC drops, -9% at CBS)

The 26-year-old Faedo was looking good in his first seven starts with a 2.92 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 1.24 WHIP. His 4.42 xFIP pointed to worse times coming and they came fast. In his last two starts, he's allowed 11 earned runs in just seven innings, pushing his season's ERA up to 4.67. 

He's a perfect example of why not to fall for a low ERA and instead focus on the underlying stats, mainly strikeouts, walks and groundballs. In fairness, his 7.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 could individually be overcome, but not together. His 11% K-BB% puts him in company with Zach Davies, Jordan Lyles and Zach Plesac. 

To add to the low K-BB%, he has a 33% GB%, meaning a ton of balls in the air. His 1.2 HR/9 could be worse (projections in the 1.5 HR/9 to 1.7 HR/9 range), but a 23% LD% is leading to a .331 BABIP. 

A low ERA got him rostered, but he's just a streaming option against weak-hitting teams like the Tig …. uh … Royals.  

Reliever

Jason Adam (79 NFBC drops, -4% at CBS)

Adam is taking pride in his best season (1.26 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 0.66) so far. There was a point earlier this month where it seemed like he might take a large share of Tampa Bay's closer role, but that hasn't been the case. Instead, Colin Poche has gotten the last two saves. Adams is still being used in high-leverage spots (two holds), but rostering the Rays' bullpen pieces can be frustrating. 

The one thing with Adams is that his stats fluctuate from season to season. His strikeout rate has bounced around from 7.5 K/9 to 13.8 to 16.0 to 9.4. It's tough to know if he can even stay consistent over the rest of this season. 

I understand adding Adam if a manager was desperate for saves, but it was the right decision to move on.