Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The 2021 campaign feels more uncertain than ever when it comes to prospecting.  If a player did not appear in the big leagues last season, then all we have to go on, at most, are "reports" on how the player looked at the team's alternate site.  If he did appear in the big leagues, the sample size is almost certainly rather small.  What can we put stock in then?  Opportunity is certainly high on the list.  If a player is guaranteed at-bats in the big leagues, then that player warrants monitoring.  A sluggish start to the season could still be likely due to the extended/unconventional last year.  There is also the "pedigree" of a prospect.  Teams could elect to be more cautious with their prized phenoms based upon the lack of real game experience in 2020.  On the flip side, perhaps a hot start from a prospect will be viewed with more skepticism than usual.  Each team likely will have a slightly different philosophy based upon who is running the organization.  It will be intriguing to see how phenoms are handled as the pandemic is still not over.

Let's look at some neophytes at the forefront of fantasy minds heading into the 2021 season.

UPGRADE

Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – There were plenty of spicy nuggets in the now infamous remarks of disgraced former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather.  Derogatory statements aside, perhaps the most notable piece of information was the rather blatant admission that the team purposefully manipulated Kelenic's service time.  This not-so-secret dirty secret has been simmering near the surface the last few years, ever since the Cubs handling of Kris Bryant in 2015.  The M's have continued to deny wrongdoing even since the resignation of Mather (as is usually the case, lack of experience is given as to why Kelenic likely will not make the Opening Day roster).  But these circumstances might end up working to Kelenic's advantage.  The M's know they are now operating under a microscope, and if Kelenic starts scalding the ball in spring training, the team might have no choice but to keep him in the majors.  As a result, a hot start could move Kelenic's timeline up after all. 

Dylan Carlson, OF, STL – Carlson was one of my favorite prospects last spring training heading into 2020, but the pandemic paused everything.  When play resumed and Carlson was finally called up to the majors, he struggled mightily.  At least, he struggled following his first call-up.  A demotion and subsequent recall yielded better results, though, with Carlson even getting some playoff at-bats.  Although this offseason and start to the 2021 campaign still won't be quite normal, at least Carlson has gained some experience.  Likewise, unlike 2020, he appears firmly penciled in as a starter in the outfield and should have a lot of protection in the lineup in the form of mashers Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, BAL – Baltimore has to hit on a position prospect in the early rounds of the draft one of these days, right?  Not since Manny Machado in 2010 have the O's had a bona fide every day starter emerge from one of their top selections.  Mountcastle was the team's first-round pick in 2015 as a shortstop, but he's bulked up since then and shifted to the corner of the diamond.  The welcome return of Trey Mancini from colon cancer will cut into his playing time at first base, though the DH slot remains open as the O's will almost certainly prefer to give their young players reps as opposed to sending strikeout king Chris Davis to the dish.  He slashed .333/.386/.485 with five home runs and 23 RBIs in 35 games for Baltimore in 2020.  Mountcastle smacked 25 home runs at Triple-A in 2019 as well while hitting .312.  The total rebuild should bode well for Mountcastle's opportunities.

Triston McKenzie, P, CLE – McKenzie's dazzling 10-strikeout debut last season seemed to come out of nowhere, as McKenzie's prospect luster had seemed to fade due to an assortment of injuries.  While he wasn't as dominant the rest of the shortened year, and eventually found his way to the bullpen, McKenzie still reasserted himself as part of the future for Cleveland.  McKenzie finished 2020 with a 3.24 ERA and 42:9 K:BB in 33.1 innings.  The opposition hit a paltry .179 against him.  McKenzie's lanky frame has always been a knock, so he needs to stay healthy, especially after so much missed time in 2019.  The trade of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets clearly has Cleveland thinking more toward rebuilding, though, so the hope is that McKenzie can slot in behind Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac for years to come.

CHECK STATUS

Randy Arozarena, OF, TB – Will the real Arozarena please stand up?  There has to be some regression to the mean in 2021.  Arozarena crushed everything in the playoffs in 2020, becoming almost an overnight sensation.  He set a postseason record by clubbing 10 home runs in a single playoffs; he also hit a robust .376 for the Rays.  While he seemingly demolished every fastball that came his way, he wasn't Pedro Cerrano either.  However, teams will certainly be more cautious throwing him heaters in 2021.  Arozarena couldn't get a legitimate shot in St. Louis for some reason, despite hitting .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 53 RBIs and 17 steals in 92 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019.  The Cardinals' loss is Tampa Bay's gain, though to expect Arozarena to be the best hitter in baseball, or even in his own division, likely would be a mistake.  Expectations could simply be too high for last October's runaway star.  And yes, he's still prospect-eligible, having only appeared in 42 regular-season games across two seasons.

Michael Kopech, P, CHW – Kopech had Tommy John surgery in September 2018, then opted out of the 2020 campaign due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  It is an understatement to say he hasn't had much game action recently.  Due to this fact, even though Kopech is viewed long-term as a starter, he will start the season as a reliever.  In terms of sheer stuff, Kopech can be devastating, possessing a blazing fastball, above-average slider and emerging changeup.  However, he has struggled with command in the past, a worrisome issue made even more troublesome due to his lack of innings the last two seasons.  Kopech remains a high-end pitching prospect, but he will likely be brought along slowly, and thus his 2021 impact could be minimal.

Hunter Greene, P, CIN – Greene had Tommy John surgery two years ago and supposedly has been hitting triple-digits on the radar gun recently.  The upside is thus still evident for the 21-year-old hurler, but he could have a steep climb to get to the big leagues.  He has pitched less than 75 professional innings, losing a ton of mound time due to the injury.  As a result, his secondary offerings remain works in progress.  The back end of the Reds' rotation is pretty gruesome, and the organization does not have much pitching help coming through the pipeline other than Nick Lodolo.  As such, Greene will get every opportunity to succeed and eventually become a frontline starter for the Reds, though that may not happen for some time given his lack of experience.

Josiah Gray, P, LAD – Gray is held back simply due to lack of opportunity.  The Dodgers have an embarrassment of riches in their starting rotation.  The signing of Trevor Bauer gives the Dodgers arguably four aces if David Price can return to form.  That leaves little room for Gray, who also has to deal with Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May ahead of him on the depth chart.  Gray would already be in the big leagues with most other organizations, or at the very least legitimately in the mix for a rotation slot.  Instead, he likely will bide his time at Triple-A until the Dodgers either need a spot start or a long reliever out of the bullpen.  His chief impact as a starter likely wouldn't come in a Dodgers uniform until 2022, which certainly dings his value in the short term.

DOWNGRADE

Royce Lewis, SS, MIN – The Twinkies received some devastating news; Lewis suffered a torn ACL and will be sidelined for the 2021 season.  As we know, there is also no guarantee he will be fully healthy to begin the 2022 season either.  Lewis has been a polarizing prospect; despite his massive raw tools, his numbers have not quite reflected his superb talent.  The Twins kept him at the alternate site in 2020, where he was tasked with refining his approach at the dish.  He also may end up moving out from shortstop, though obviously his recovery from the ACL tear could dictate his future position.  It also remains to be seen if the injury will sap any of his athletic ability.  Unfortunately, Lewis has gone from possibly making his MLB debut this season, to no guarantee he makes the big leagues before he turns 23.  He had successful surgery last Friday.

Drew Waters, OF, ATL – Waters might end up hitting for power, but he hasn't unlocked that power yet.  That is just one of the reasons to downgrade him, though, along with his penchant for striking out.  There's also the presence of Cristian Pache, who the Braves seem to like more than Waters.  Pache will get every chance to begin the season as the Braves centerfielder, as his dazzling defense gives him the leg up.  While Waters will be invited to big-league camp, the presence of Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna, along with the lack of a DH in the NL for 2021, make it reasonable to assume Waters will begin the season in the minors.  Injuries could have a way of bumping up the timetable for Waters, but for now he is likely to spend spring at Triple-A.

Clarke Schmidt, P, NYY – Schmidt already had Tommy John surgery in 2017, so when an elbow issue flares up again, your thoughts immediately gravitate to the worst possible scenario.  Fortunately, his UCL appears to be intact, and the injury is not considered serious.  Nevertheless, Schmidt has been shut down for a few weeks, making it all but impossible for him to make a legitimate bid at a rotation slot for the Bronx Bombers.  The Yankees have several high-risk, high-reward arms slated to begin the season in the rotation, most notably Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon.  Luis Severino is also injured but expected back sometime this summer.  A quick recovery could still get Schmidt back in the mix during the early portion of the season, and injuries to other starters could lead to his eventual inclusion in the rotation.  For now, though, it appears the likes of Deivi Garcia, Jordan Montgomery and Domingo German will compete for the last two spots in the rotation, with Schmidt either starting the season on the injured list or in the minors.

Edward Cabrera, P, MIA – Cabrera's injury history is troublesome, warranting some caution when forecasting the future for the flamethrower.  An inflamed nerve in his right biceps is the latest in a strong of ailments that have derailed his ascent to the majors.  Last year he battled right shoulder discomfort as well as a back problem while at the team's alternate site.  Cabrera has yet to pitch more than 100.1 innings in any season since entering the minors.  He has a blazing fastball, above-average breaking ball and emerging changeup, though he must prove he can stay on the field.  He is older than future rotation mate Sixto Sanchez but remains behind Sanchez in terms of development, largely due to his checkered injury history.