Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The prospect promotions are coming fast and furious this season, as Keston Hiura, Brendan Rodgers and Austin Riley are the latest phenoms to make their long-awaited premieres.  Yordan Alvarez of the Astros should be next, as he has little left to prove at Triple-A, slashing an absurd .411/.494/.884 with 18 home runs and 55 RBI in just 39 games - and an injury to George Springer may accelerate Alvarez's timetable even further. It's also only a matter of time for Dylan Cease, one of my favorite pitching prospects in the minors. Cease is allowing a few too many base runners at Triple-A, though the White Sox recently lost Carlos Rodon for the season and Manny Banuelos to a shoulder injury, while Ivan Nova has a bloated 7.42 ERA and may not be long for the rotation. Cavan Biggio continues to rake for Triple-A Buffalo, and has played five different positions so far in 2019. This versatility should allow the Blue Jays to bring him up sooner rather than later.

As can be seen, there is no shortage of highly touted prospects still biding their time in the minors. Let's take a look at some other neophytes making headlines in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Jake Fraley, OF, SEA – Fraley hit .347 last year in the Rays organization at High-A and also swiped 11 bases in just 66 games. He was traded to the Mariners in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith deal last November, then played in the Australian Baseball League in the offseason and tore it up, parlaying that into a spring training invite. The centerfielder from LSU has seen his average dip a little bit with the subsequent bump to Double-A in 2019, but Fraley is still batting .297 with five home runs, 22 RBI and 10 steals through 37 games.  Fraley's speed remains one of his chief assets, but he is not completely devoid of power.  If he can hit 10-15 home runs, he would offer an intriguing speed/power profile and could rocket up prospect charts.

Ryan Rolison, P, COL – Pitching prospects for the Rockies always appear to be automatically downgraded due to their home park being in the thin air of Colorado. We have seen supposedly elite prospects like Jon Gray struggle to maintain ERAs under 4. The Rockies are hoping Rolison can buck the trend and become a frontline rotation anchor after being drafted in the first round last year. The polished collegian from Ole Miss buzzed through three starts at Low-A, posting a 0.61 ERA and 14:2 K:BB in 14.2 innings.  That resulted in a quick promotion to High-A, where he has continued to mow down the competition with a 1.52 ERA and 31:6 K:BB in 29.2 innings at Lancaster. The southpaw doesn't throw particularly hard with a fastball sitting in the low-90's, but he does own a superb curveball and throws strikes. It will be interesting to see how he handles the upper levels of the minors since he is not overpowering, but thus far the Rockies organization must be pleased with his numbers.

Tarik Skubal, P, DET – The Detroit farm system is suddenly flush with pitching talent, most notably Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Alex Faedo.  Skubal could soon be added to that list, as the southpaw is off to a standout start at High-A Lakeland with a 3.48 ERA and 52:8 K:BB in 41.1 innings.  Skubal has prototypical size and a deceptive albeit repeatable delivery.  He needs to work on his off-speed pitches, but it already appears the 22-year old is outperforming his ninth round draft slot after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2017.  In addition, the Tigers can now afford to be patient with him considering the bevy of pitching talent currently ahead of him at Double-A.

Dylan Carlson, OF, STL – Carlson is having what can be considered a breakout season at Double-A.  Once upon a time, Carlson was a first round pick in 2016, but has been mediocre at best since.  However, the Cards have stayed aggressive with his promotions. And at just 20, the switch-hitter is having his best season so far by slashing .291/.363/.544 with seven home runs, 29 RBI and six steals through 40 games.  His previous season highs were 11 home runs and eight steals, so he is set to shatter those marks.  Carlson's average is also at a career high, though he's also not been afraid to take a walk throughout his professional career.  Still, it's the added power and steals that makes Carlson an emerging phenom.  It remains to be seen if he can keep his average up at the higher levels, though he does possess a good handle of the strike zone.  With double-digit home runs and stolen bases, Carlson will firmly place himself back on the prospect map.

CHECK STATUS

Luis Patino, P, SD – The Padres boast a bevy of pitching arms in their system, led by MacKenzie Gore.  Patino shares the rotation at High-A with Gore, and definitely possesses some talent in his own right.  The teenaged right-hander has posted a 3.60 ERA and 36:18 K:BB in 30 innings in 2019.  The walks are obviously a concern, but Patino has managed to limit the overall damage overall as opposing batters are hitting just .198 against.  While the additional base runners may come back to haunt him at the higher levels, Patino did not have such control problems a season ago at Low-A, so wildness may not be embedded into his profile.  He's also almost a full year younger than the aforementioned Gore, so there's plenty of time to iron out the kinks.  Patino may not be on the fast track to the bigs like Gore, but it would be a mistake not to keep an eye on his progress.

Luis Gil, P, NYY – Gil could be a steal for the Yankees after coming over in a minor trade with the Twins in 2018.  He's battled control problems, but his ability to miss bats is undeniable.  Gil has a 0.82 ERA and 48:17 K:BB in 33 innings this year at Low-A Charleston, with opposing batters hitting an abysmal .143 against.  At 20, he has been handled with kid gloves on his first taste of full-season ball despite signing in 2015.   If the lack of control continues, he could end up in the bullpen - where he started his minor league career.  But for now, he will remain a starter as he continues to fix these issues.

Bobby Bradley, 1B, CLE – Oscar Mercado just got the call to the bigs; is Bradley's promotion next?  Bradley has been a Joey Gallo-type all-or-nothing masher, hitting at least 23 home runs in each of the past four seasons.  He's also struck out at least 122 times in each of those campaigns, while failing to hit above .264 in any of those seasons.  He hit just .224 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2018.  The strikeouts remain for Bradley in 2019, although he's batting a surprising .279 through 38 games.  That likely won't last, but a higher average certainly will make the strikeouts more palatable.  The Indians do have Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana splitting time between 1B and DH, so Bradley's path to the bigs isn't entirely clear.  That being said, the Indians are one of the lowest scoring teams in the American League, so Bradley could provide a possible boost if promoted. 

Jonathan Ornelas, 3B, TEX – Just 18 years of age, Ornelas has more than held his own at Low-A this season after being selected in the third round of the 2018 draft by slashing .313/.374/.481 with four home runs, 11 RBI and seven steals through 35 games.  Oddly enough, Ornelas has shifted over from shortstop to third base - where he will likely play from here on out - but possesses surprising power and should fill out as he matures.  Perhaps most surprisingly, he is sixth in batting in the South Atlantic League despite being among its youngest players.  Ornelas is a ways away from making a big league impact, but is off to an exciting start for a teenager getting his first taste of full-season ball.

DOWNGRADE

Nick Madrigal, 2B, CWS – A polished collegiate hitter out of Oregon State, Madrigal was the fourth overall pick in 2018.  Many felt he would begin the 2019 campaign at Double-A after handling 38 games of A-ball with relative ease, though he was sent back to High-A instead.  Madrigal has been only mediocre through 36 games at High-A Winston-Salem, slashing .270/.338/.369.  The diminutive second baseman does not project to hit for much power, although he's swiped nine bases.  Madrigal's value really comes from his ability to handle the bat, although he has not hit for a high average this season.  And he's drawn more walks (11) than strikeouts (5), so this may simply be a case where he ends up being a more productive real life player than fantasy prospect.

Brent Honeywell, P, TB – Honeywell was recovering from Tommy John surgery and supposed to return this season, but that is looking less and less likely by the day.  He's been shut down twice on his road back to the mound, this time with nerve irritation in his upper arm.  Although he's not supposed to have any long-term effects, Honeywell's possible return to the mound has been pushed back to late summer.  In fact, it would not be surprising if the Rays decided to let him sit out the entire 2019 campaign, as he is still considered one of the top pitching prospects in the game.  Still, that would mean Honeywell won't have thrown a live-game pitch since the end of 2017.  He looked ready for primetime prior to the 2018 season; now, Honeywell likely won't make his MLB debut until 2020.

Austin Beck, OF, OAK – Beck remains a work-in-progress, with his raw tools not yet translating to significant results on the stat sheet.  He hit .296 at Low-A in 2018, but smacked just two home runs in 123 games despite having plus raw power.  He stole just eight bases and was caught six times last year despite having above-average speed.  Beck's also aggressive at the dish and not very willing to take a walk.  In fact, his approach at the dish has not worked in 2019, recording just .209/.252/.403 through 33 games at High-A.  He does have five home runs, but has also fanned a staggering 56 times - while stealing only one base.  The 20-year-old is certainly talented, but the raw tools lag far behind the on-field production.

Corey Ray, OF, MIL – Ray's value continues to slide, as he is having extreme difficulties adjusting to the pitching at Triple-A.  He's already never hit above .247 at any level in the minors despite being a first round pick in 2016, but last year he showed an exceptional power/speed combination with 27 home runs and 37 steals in 135 games at Double-A.  However, strikeouts remain a major issue, as he fanned over 150 times in each of the past two seasons.  His struggles have been even more pronounced this season, batting just .196/.282/.315 with three home runs and three steals through 23 games for Triple-A San Antonio while been punched out a staggering 43 times over that span.  The inability to hit for average is less of an issue in this day and age, but not to this degree.  It is even more troublesome for Ray because some of his value is rooted in getting on base and stealing bags, so he's certainly been a disappointment for the Brewers organization.