Farm Futures: Top 400 Update

The final full-scale update to the Top 400 that I'll release during the regular season is in the books! I will be updating it when guys like Jesus Luzardo, Evan White and Sean Murphy graduate, but there won't be another update with notable movement until after the season is over.

What follows are some quick hits on certain guys. Ask any and all questions in the comments section or on Twitter @RealJRAnderson.

Luis Robert has graduated and I was dead wrong to not have him in my top two heading into the season. Had he still been eligible, I would have moved him ahead of Wander Franco — that's how impressive he has been. Is he Giancarlo Stanton without the injuries and with 70-grade speed? He just might be.

Jake Cronenworth won't be eligible for the list for much longer, but he is going out on top, so to speak. Yes, he's very old for a hitting prospect, but I think we can expect Jeff McNeil's 2019 season from Cronenworth over a full season, possibly with a few more steals.

Pitching prospects will break your heart. Five of my top-19 pitching prospects (Nate Pearson, Forrest Whitley, Matt Manning, A.J. Puk, Edward Cabrera) are currently dealing with arm injuries, and that doesn't include Spencer Howard whose velocity mysteriously dropped by the inning in his last start. Sixto Sanchez simply being healthy and as good as anticipated has allowed him to enter the top three of pitching prospects, and he will be No. 2 once Luzardo graduates.

Triston McKenzie has had two dominant starts, but lets not forget why he was never a top-50 prospect, even before he dealt with a serious back injury. He is rail thin and his velocity is already starting to dip from where it was in his first start. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Ian Anderson's changeup has been devastating, and he has wisely dialed back his fastball usage. I still doubt his fastball command and think that once the book is out, teams will start having more success against him.

Deivi Garcia got the call before Clarke Schmidt because he was already on the 40-man roster, and while Garcia was awesome in that start, that doesn't answer my long-term questions. Everyone knows Garcia has the stuff to dominate in any given start, but I seriously doubt his command and frame are built for a traditional starting role. He is a better prospect than the Adrian Morejon, Jonathan Loaisiga types who we can already confidently say can't handle a starter's workload, as Garcia could still prove up to the task, I'm just betting against him doing so.

Edward Olivares probably won't hit righties well enough to post high batting averages, but at least he'll get that chance in Kansas City. He has 20/20 upside with everyday at-bats, but he'd be ranked a lot higher if I thought he'd hit above .250 in a starting role.

Dane Dunning has had an amazing start to his MLB career, but let's not get too carried away here. He has faced the Tigers and Royals, and while that's a nice bonus for any pitcher on Cleveland, Chicago or Minnesota, pitchers on those teams still have to face real offenses in their non-DET/KC starts. Dunning's offspeed stuff is excellent, but velocity matters, and he averages 91.7 mph with his four-seamer.

Corbin Martin and Brent Honeywell won't be factors this year, but they could spend most of 2021 in the majors, so they get a bit of a bump as we get closer to next season.

Jarren Duran enters the list, something that was long overdue. I have heard poor reports on his makeup (not off field, just attitude), but guys can change, and he has been the buzz of Red Sox camp this summer.

Brendan McKay might not even be ready for spring training, and I was already down on him before he hurt his shoulder. If you're stashing him, that's fine, but let's be clear about his upside once healthy. Maybe he can be a No. 3 starter, but his stuff screams No. 4 starter to me.

Brusdar Graterol has not recorded a strikeout over his last 6.1 innings. He still has the stuff to be the Dodgers' closer of the future, but I'm worried he's not right physically.

Randy Arozarena still profiles best as a short-side platoon guy, as does Manuel Margot, but he is playing now and he has the speed to be as relevant as Margot has been this season.

Trevor Rogers is throwing harder than advertised (touched 96 mph), which bumps his upside from back-end starter to mid-rotation starter.

The top-five prospects to get moved at the trade deadline were Taylor Trammell, Olivares, Gabriel Arias, Kendall Williams and Stuart Fairchild. They're all fine prospects, but it was a fairly underwhelming deadline just in terms of prospect-eligible players on the move.

Julian Merryweather is 28 years old, but his stuff has been ridiculous, so I'm ranking him. I texted Eno Sarris about adding him in Devil's Rejects and he responded that Merryweather has the second-biggest gap between his fastball velocity (touches 99 mph) and his changeup velocity (averages 80.3 mph) in the majors. I was intrigued by Merryweather back when he was in Cleveland's farm system (peaked at 203 on the top 400 in January of 2018), but his age and Tommy John surgery put him on the back burner. He won't get fully stretched out this season, but I think he'll enter the rotation in 2021.

Bryan Abreu being unable to return to the Astros' bullpen is pretty concerning. He was horrible while he was up, and I already had him pegged as a reliever long term.

Terrin Vavra and Tyler Nevin getting traded by the Rockies is actually a good thing for their dynasty value. Obviously it's great to have a hitter who plays half his games in Coors Field, but were Vavra and Nevin ever going to get that chance? Probably not. Now they have a clearer path to playing time and will still get a favorable home park.

Has Cleveland solved pitching? It sure seems like they have. If you put yourself in their shoes, it was probably easier than we think to move on from Mike Clevinger. Cal Quantrill's stock gets a bump, as does Joey Cantillo's. Obviously Ethan Hankins and Daniel Espino have high ceilings, but they'd have high ceilings in any organization. It's guys like Tanner Burns, Logan Allen (the younger one), Quantrill and Cantillo who they are going to maximize.