Farm Futures: Southern League Hitters Roundup

Continuing with our tour of the minor leagues, we travel to the Southern League this week to see what some notable Double-A hitters have been up to. The Southern League has been a hotbed of promotions, both to and from, this season, so some of these players have only limited at-bats at Double-A while some of the league's top hitters this season have already moved on to Triple-A and were therefore not included in this article. This is a pretty fair league to hit and pitch in overall, so the statistics don't need to be weighted relative to the rest of the minors. As always, prospects were listed in the approximate order of their value in dynasty leagues.

Dansby Swanson, SS, Mississippi (Braves): .254/.336/.404, five HR, three 3B, eight 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 38:19 K:BB in 193 AB.

To say Swanson has the "good face" that old school scouts like to reference would be an understatement. Handsomeness is not a tool but if it was, it would be his lone plus-plus tool. What he can boast in terms of on-field production is average or better tools across the board, most notably a plus hit tool and average power with a glove that will stick in the middle of the Braves' infield for the next six-plus years. Mississippi is a tough place to hit, so Swanson is a solid buy-low option at the moment if his owner is scouting the box score and left unimpressed by Swanson's numbers relative to a guy like Alex Bregman. Shortstops with excellent makeup like Swanson often get compared to Derek Jeter, because it's fun and easy. That comp actually makes quite a bit of sense here in terms of what Swanson's fantasy production could look like, not to mention his potential for off-the-field exploits.

Willy Adames, SS, Montgomery (Rays): .275/.365/.472, eight HR, three 3B, 22 2B, 8-for-10 on SB attempts, 62:37 K:BB in 265 AB.

I was dead wrong about Adames before the season. He has not only started to hit for the type of power this season that his proponents have been waiting for, but he has cut down his K-rate from 27 percent last season at High-A to 20.1 percent this year at Double-A. To show all-fields power as a 20-year-old shortstop in the Southern League is quite the feat and Adames is starting to look like a potential cornerstone in dynasty leagues. If someone wanted to argue that Adames, not Swanson, is the top prospect in this league for dynasty league purposes, I think that's a pretty easy argument to make considering Adames is almost two years younger and outperforming Swanson right now.

Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Tennessee (Cubs): .733/.706/1.267, two HR, zero 3B, two HR, 1:1 K:BB in 15 AB.

Happ was deservedly promoted to Double-A last week after slashing .296/.410/.475 with seven homers and 10 steals (on 13 attempts) in 69 games at High-A Myrtle Beach. He was the last of the top college hitters from last year's draft class to reach Double-A (Swanson, Bregman and Andrew Benintendi being the others) but Happ very much belongs in that grouping. Cubs prospects are becoming increasingly difficult to evaluate, especially as they get closer to the majors, as there are very few open spots in the field (if any) when everyone is healthy. Happ, along with Gleyber Torres, is the quality of prospect who could headline a trade at this year's deadline that nets the Cubs a high-end reliever or a mid-rotation starter with a year or more of team control remaining on their contract. A trade is the ideal scenario right now for Happ's owners, as he is most certainly skilled enough to figure into the Cubs' long-term plans but he could be initially used in a Javier Baez/Chris Coghlan role where he floats around and gets four or five starts a week. On almost any other team he would be seen as the second baseman of the future, but that is less certain given Chicago's ridiculous internal depth.

Jacob Nottingham, C, Biloxi (Brewers): .254/.320/.373, seven HR, zero 3B, six 2B, 4-for-4 on SB attempts, 64:18 K:BB in 228 AB.

Here's another potential buy-low option if Nottingham's owners are scouting the box score and left unimpressed. He turned 21 in April and is holding his own at Double-A while learning the most demanding position in the game. For instance, let's say the Brewers opted to have Nottingham repeat Double-A next year (doubtful) and he put up gaudy numbers as a 22-year-old, would that make him more appealing? That would be the likely scenario, but it doesn't change the big league player Nottingham will become. Willson Contreras is three years older than Nottingham and was demolishing Triple-A pitching earlier this year prior to his call-up. I have little doubt that if we fast forward three years in an alternate reality Nottingham would be able to put up similar numbers to Contreras at Triple-A. The likely scenario, however, is that Nottingham reaches the big leagues by age 22 or 23, so there will be no one-to-one comparison of the two catchers. Age is a very important part of the equation when evaluating prospects, particularly catching prospects, as it is very rare for a catcher with Nottingham's offensive potential to reach Double-A and keep his head above water as a 21-year-old. The future is bright for Milwaukee's long-term solution behind the plate.

Brett Phillips, OF, Biloxi (Brewers): .254/.340/.478, 11 HR, four 3B, 11 2B, 5-for-7 on SB attempts, 84:28 K:BB in 232 AB.

Phillips' transformation since being traded to the Brewers has been remarkable to behold. He went from hitting .320 or better with a K-rate below 20 percent at High-A and Double-A in the Astros' organization last year to hitting around .250 with a K-rate between 30 and 32 percent at the Brewers' Double-A affiliate this year and last year. The Brewers are clearly trying to stress more of a 'three true outcomes' approach for Phillips, who was seen as a potential leadoff man when they acquired him. He could still become a table-setter, but that K-rate will need to come way down. Right now he looks like a No. 7 or No. 8 hitter with 20-plus homer power and a league average batting average. Phillips just turned 22, and he is clearly right in the heart of the developmental process in the upper levels of the minors, so it's too early to make any snap judgments. Just know that he is not going to reach the majors any time soon.

Tyler O'Neill, OF, Jackson (Mariners): .310/.371/.532, 13 HR, two 3B, 20 2B, 5-for-6 on SB attempts, 73:28 K:BB in 284 AB.

Perhaps no Southern League hitter deserves to be promoted to Triple-A more than O'Neill, who has continued to mash while cutting his K-rate from 30.5 percent at High-A last year to 23.3 percent this season. He is third in the league with a .902 OPS and the two players ahead of him, Moises Sierra and Daniel Palka, are six and three years his senior, respectively. O'Neill had a profile that was easy to dismiss when he was striking out a ton and posting big numbers in the Cal League as a corner outfielder who figured to be average at best defensively. Now that he has his K-rate in a very acceptable range and has continued to produce in the more neutral hitting environment of the Southern League, it's fairly safe to start treating him like a legitimate top-100 prospect for dynasty leagues. I don't see him getting the call to the big leagues until sometime next season, as the Mariners don't seem to have a major need in the outfield corners.

Casey Gillaspie, 1B, Montgomery (Rays: .274/.392/.461, nine HR, zero 3B, 18 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 63:49 K:BB in 241 AB.

The 23-year-old switch-hitting first baseman leads the league with 49 walks and is outside the top 15 in strikeouts, demonstrating the kind of approach most high-end first baseman bring to the table in the big leagues. He may never offer 30-plus homer pop, which he would need to do in order to be a top-12 option at the position, and he will almost certainly never hit for an average approaching .300. That said, he could bring Justin Bour-esque production to the table down the road, which will play in all formats.

Jake Bauers, OF, Montgomery (Rays): .276/.366/.422, eight HR, zero 3B, 15 2B, 6-for-10 on SB attempts, 46:37 K:BB in 268 AB.

The biggest development for Bauers' dynasty league value is that he is playing primarily in the outfield this year with the Biscuits, which eases the concerns that his bat may not be able to handle first base. As a 20-year-old outfielder with a 127 wRC+ at Double-A, there is an awful lot to like. Other than his stint in Rookie ball in 2013 and a 69-game run last year with Double-A, he has posted walk rates north of 10 percent and he has never posted a K-rate of more than 17.1 percent. It's debatable how much power he will bring to games in the big leagues but even if he's only good for 15-18 homers a year, there should be enough production everywhere else for him to be useful in most formats.

Billy McKinney, OF, Tennessee (Cubs): .264/.365/.339, one HR, two 3B, 10 2B, 1-for-3 on SB attempts, 50:35 K:BB in 227 AB.

McKinney is having a disappointing season. There's no other way to put it. Yes, he has upped his walk rate from 8.8 percent in 77 games at Double-A last year to 13 percent this year, but every other offensive metric points to him taking a step back. This is a 21-year-old with an excellent hit tool who is struggling at Double-A. The sky is not falling. However, being simply solid probably won't be enough for him to ever profile as a regular in the outfield for the Cubs. Like Happ, McKinney would be an ideal trade target for teams shopping pitching at the deadline, but the Cubs might be unwilling to sell low on him at this point.

Daniel Palka, OF, Chattanooga (Twins): .272/.349/.560, 19 HR, four 3B, 12 2B, 6-for-9 on SB attempts, 91:33 K:BB in 268 AB.

Palka, 24, leads the league with 19 home runs and 91 strikeouts, so it's pretty obvious what he does well and what he needs to work on. Of course, the fact that he's 24 and putting up these numbers at Double-A makes it a little tougher to buy into him offering that kind of in-game power against big league pitching. He may end up only being a Quadruple-A hitter but given the home run totals, he won't last long on waivers in deeper dynasty leagues, so the time is now for owners who want to roll the dice on him continuing to produce as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Dustin Peterson, OF, Mississippi (Braves): .274/.338/.423, seven HR, one 3B, 19 2B, 3-for-3 on SB attempts, 54:27 K:BB in 281 AB.

A couple years ago the younger Peterson brother was certainly in the shadow of his big brother D.J., a college hitter who was picked in the first round of the 2013 draft by the Mariners while Dustin, a prep outfielder, went to the Padres in the second round. Now both brothers are playing in the Southern League and the younger brother is quite easily the better prospect for dynasty league purposes. Dustin is three years younger and plays left field, while D.J. is going to either be a first baseman or a DH. Despite the age gap their production is quite similar, and the younger brother actually has the more impressive K:BB. Neither Peterson is worth owning yet in leagues that roster 200 or fewer prospects, but the Braves' Peterson could get a chance to play every day in late 2017 or early 2018 while offering middling offensive production at the big league level.

D.J. Peterson, 1B, Jackson (Mariners): .271/.340/.466, 11 HR, zero 3B, 21 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 68:27 K:BB in 277 AB.

The older Peterson brother will turn 25 this offseason, although developmentally he should be given a bit of a pass considering how the prior Mariners regime irresponsibly rushed him to the upper levels of the minors. He remains exclusively a first baseman, which means he will really have to hit in order to profile at the position at the highest level. Given his age, it will be understandable if nobody is buying in until he shows he can produce against big league pitching in a year or two.

OTHERS OF NOTE:

Austin Dean, OF, Jacksonville (Marlins): .252/.337/.406, eight HR, two 3B, 13 2B, 1-for-3 on SB attempts, 62:34 K:BB in 266 AB.

Phillip Ervin, OF, Pensacola (Reds): .232/.341/.391, six HR, two 3B, 13 2B, 22-for-25 on SB attempts, 56:29 K:BB in 220 AB.

Victor Caratini, C, Tennessee (Cubs): .295/.386/.388, one HR, one 3B, 16 2B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 46:33 K:BB in 224 AB.

Jamie Westbrook, 2B, Mobile (Diamondbacks): .273/.322/.357, two HR, zero 3B, 14 2B, 5-for-9 on SB attempts, 31:14 K:BB in 238 AB.

Adam Engel, OF, Birmingham (White Sox): .246/.353/.389, four HR, six 3B, 16 2B, 29-for-36 on SB attempts, 66:41 K:BB in 280 AB.

Victor Roache, OF, Biloxi (Brewers): .243/.337/.412, four HR, one 3B, 11 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 41:21 K:BB in 148 AB.

Kean Wong, 2B, Montgomery (Rays): .255/.314/.324, two HR, zero 3B, 12 2B, 9-for-15 on SB attempts, 36:21 K:BB in 259 AB.

Tyrone Taylor, OF, Biloxi (Brewers): .226/.297/.298, three HR, zero 3B, eight 2B, 6-for-8 on SB attempts, 44:20 K:BB in 235 AB.

Eric Jagielo, 3B, Pensacola (Reds): .204/.307/.313, four HR, one 3B, nine 2B, 74:28 K:BB in 211 AB.

Trey Michalczewski, 3B, Birmingham (White Sox): .245/.333/.403, six HR, four 3B, 14 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 83:29 K:BB in 253 AB.

Alex Blandino, SS, Pensacola (Reds): .196/.301/.317, five HR, zero 3B, nine 2B, 3-for-5 on SB attempts, 62:26 K:BB in 199 AB.

Courtney Hawkins, OF, Birmingham (White Sox): .248/.307/.410, four HR, zero 3B, 14 2B, 0-for-2 on SB attempts, 56:14 K:BB in 161 AB.