Farm Futures: Carolina League Roundup

Our tour of the minor leagues continues this week with a trip to the Carolina League, where some of the best lower-level prospects in the game call home. The ballparks in this league are pretty fair, with the exception of Frederick, so this is typically a good environment to get a sense of a player's true talent. Each player's rank on the top 400 prospect rankings is noted.

Victor Robles, OF, Potomac (Nationals): .267/.340/.456, three HR, one 3B, six 2B, 7-for-8 on SB attempts, 18:6 K:BB in 90 ABs.
Rank: 3

Robles is behind just Yoan Moncada and Cody Bellinger on the prospect rankings, and is starting to really unveil what should be a five-category profile. Despite being one of the youngest players at High-A, Robles has been 22 percent better than league average (122 wRC+) while playing half his games in the most pitcher-friendly park in the league. His .189 ISO is easily his highest mark since he posted a .192 ISO in 23 games in the Gulf Coast League in 2015, and his three home runs in 24 games already match the three long balls he hit in 41 games at High-A last season, so the power is clearly coming on. This is a monster building block in dynasty leagues.

Eloy Jimenez, OF, Myrtle Beach (Cubs): .333/.444/.533, one HR, 1:3 K:BB in 15 ABs.
Rank: 6

Jimenez only has four games under his belt this season after recently returning from a shoulder injury, but so far he looks like his usual self. The home run he hit Monday was a no-doubt bomb to left-center, so the power appears to be all the way back. Ian Happ may be the talk of the prospect community right now, but Jimenez is the better long-term dynasty league building block, as he has the potential for a 70-grade hit tool and 70-grade power.

Kyle Tucker, OF, Buies Creek (Astros): .298/.390/.626, eight HR, four 3B, 11 2B, 12-for-16 on SB attempts, 37:18 K:BB in 131 ABs.
Rank: 7

His strikeout rate is up to 24 percent (from 17.5 percent at Low-A), but he is just one home run away from matching the nine long balls he hit in 117 games in 2016, so nobody should care about the extra whiffs. Tucker has sneakily emerged as a potential fantasy star, as he has always had the potential for a plus hit tool, and it now looks like he could post some 20/20 seasons early on. Don't be surprised if he gets promoted to Double-A in short order.

Isan Diaz, 2B, Carolina (Brewers): .288/.363/.504, seven HR, nine 2B, 5-for-7 on SB attempts, 40:18 K:BB in 139 ABs.
Rank: 19

The Face of MiLB is on pace to top his numbers from a year ago, quickly shaking off a slow start by hitting .330/.406/.648 with seven home runs over his last 24 games. He is a rare middle infielder whose power might be his top offensive tool, but his hit tool is not far behind as only 38.2 percent of his hits go to the pull side, which is the ninth lowest rate among qualified hitters in the league. It is a true all-fields approach. He will also chip in 10-15 steals in his early years. After playing more games at shortstop than second base in each of his previous three seasons, Diaz is now pretty clearly a long-term second baseman, as he has started 18 games at the keystone and 15 games at shortstop so far this season.

Corey Ray, OF, Carolina (Brewers): .250/.333/.370, one 3B, 11 2B, 8-for-11 on SB attempts, 36:14 K:BB in 108 ABs.
Rank: 28

Ray missed the start of the season recovering from a torn meniscus, but has picked up where he left off last season. That is to say, he is performing admirably against right-handed pitching and showcasing his plus speed on the bases while seeming completely overmatched against left-handed pitching. Consider that in 115 career at-bats against southpaws, he has three extra-base hits and 32 strikeouts. Admittedly it is a small sample size and that judgment could reflect some confirmation bias, as his inability to hit same-handed pitching was the one major worry with Ray coming out of Louisville. There should be little doubt that he will be able to handle the strong side of an outfield platoon, likely in left field, but he may not play against lefties, and if he does, he could struggle.

Zack Collins, C, Winston-Salem (White Sox): .228/.392/.421, five HR, one 3B, five 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 34:31 K:BB in 114 ABs.
Rank:

It's awfully hard to say a player is being too passive when he is getting on base at a .392 clip and has five home runs in 35 games, but Collins could probably stand to take the bat off his shoulder a bit more. That said, this is still a pretty impressive start to the season for a catching prospect at High-A less than a year removed from being drafted out of college. He has thrown out 49 percent of runners so far, which might be the most positive statistic in his young season given the questions about his defensive chops behind the plate. The bat should play, it will just be a question of whether his defense is good enough to justify him sticking at catcher.

Trent Clark, OF, Carolina (Brewers): .242/.363/.350, three HR, four 2B, 7-for-9 on SB attempts, 42:24 K:BB in 120 ABs.
Rank: 76

Lauded for his approach and hit tool as a high schooler, Clark has kept up half his side of the bargain so far, ranking third in the Carolina League in walks and sixth in strikeouts. The amount of swing-and-miss is concerning, as he does not project to offer plus power down the road, and would ideally profile as a No. 1 or No. 2 hitter. That said, even with all this fretting, he is on pace to hit double-digit home runs and challenge for 30 steals as a 20-year-old at High-A, which is still pretty impressive.

Lucas Erceg, 3B, Carolina (Brewers): .212/.255/.328, three HR, seven 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 25:7 K:BB in 137 ABs.
Rank: 79

The 22-year-old's .239 BABIP is the primary culprit behind this slow start, and a buying opportunity has likely opened up in a good amount of dynasty leagues. His 17.2 percent strikeout rate ranks 21st out of 76 qualified hitters in the league, and while he could obviously stand to walk a bit more, he does not seem overmatched at the plate. Investing in Erceg required a bit of a leap of faith, given his background and relative lack of pedigree, and unless the owner was truly all-in on the player their faith may be wavering.

Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Frederick (Orioles): .344/.369/.609, eight HR, one 3B, 14 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 27:5 K:BB in 151 ABs.
Rank: 115

While seven of his eight home runs have come in the hitter's haven at Frederick, he still boasts a .999 OPS on the road, so it's hard to pin most of his early-season success on an advantageous home ballpark. Mountcastle is simply someone I underrated coming into the season. His 3.1 percent walk rate is a bit troubling, but he just turned 20 in February and has been 66 percent better than the average hitter in the league (166 wRC+). The Orioles are known to be aggressive with promoting their top prospects, so it would not be surprising to see Mountcastle pushed to Double-A Bowie in short order, which would help provide a much better gauge of where he is at as a hitter in a more neutral home park.

Michael Chavis, 3B, Salem (Red Sox): .337/.425/.644, seven HR, 11 2B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 23:14 K:BB in 104 ABs.
Rank: 125

It seems like Chavis has been around forever, but he's still just 21, and is finally showcasing what many thought was one of the best hit tools of the 2014 prep class at the time of that draft. He missed about a month last year with a thumb injury and missed 11 days this year with an elbow injury. Chavis has only started seven games in the field this year, the rest coming at DH, which is something worth tracking going forward. He is slightly old for the level, given his pedigree, so we need to see him carry over this success against Double-A pitching before completely buying in, but his stock is certainly trending way up. The improved approach is the most impressive aspect of his campaign, as his strikeout rate is below 20 percent (19.2 percent), which is a first for him in pro ball, and his walk rate sits at a career-best 11.7 percent.

Luis Alexander Basabe, OF, Winston-Salem (White Sox): .223/.338/.322, one HR, three 3B, three 2B, 7-for-9 on SB attempts, 35:17 K:BB in 121 ABs.
Rank: 128

It is taking Basabe a while to get going in the Carolina League after impressively belting 12 home runs in 105 games as a teenager in the neutral conditions of Greenville and the Sally league. The quick-twitch outfielder's plus speed is on display and he has upped his walk rate from 8.9 percent to 11.8 percent. His stock may be slightly down due to the slow start, but look for him to heat up this summer.

Jomar Reyes, 3B, Frederick (Orioles): .321/.361/.436, one HR, six 2B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 18:4 K:BB in 78 ABs.
Rank: 134

Reyes is currently sidelined with a broken right pinky and is not expected to return until late June, but he was off to a good start in his repeat of the Carolina League, even if a lot of his success was not sustainable. His .407 BABIP was largely responsible for his high batting average, but even after that normalizes, I expect him to put together a solid campaign as a 20-year-old after he failed (66 wRC+) in his first crack last year as the youngest player in the league (by four months). With 70-grade raw power, no debilitating swing-and-miss issues and youth on his side, he is worth rostering in most dynasty formats.

Austin Hays, OF, Frederick (Orioles): .305/.343/.458, four HR, three 3B, two 2B, 3-for-5 on SB attempts, 22:5 K:BB in 131 ABs.
Rank: 187

Hays continues to flash across-the-board offensive tools, and he has actually done much more damage on the road (.884 OPS) than at home (.691 OPS), so he has not yet tapped into the favorable home hitting conditions at Frederick. Perhaps it is something about that team's approach, but Mountcastle, Reyes and Hays have a combined 13 home runs and 14 walks in 360 at-bats, which is pretty insane. Hays will turn 22 in July, and it would be nice to see him earn a promotion to Double-A sometime this summer so that we can get a better read on his abilities against advanced pitching.

Josh Morgan, 3B/C, Down East (Rangers): .265/.326/.442, four HR, one 3B, six 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 14:9 K:BB in 113 ABs.
Rank: 230

The most compelling thing about Morgan's season is that 12 of his starts have come behind the plate, as the Rangers seem to be seriously working on transitioning him into at least a part-time role as a catcher. This is huge for his prospect stock because the bat was going to be a little too light to realistically profile elsewhere, but at catcher he could put up a .275 average with 12-15 home runs and a handful of steals and finish as a top 10 fantasy option at the position. If this experiment works perfectly, he could be like a rich man's Austin Barnes, where he gets roughly half the starts at catcher and 20 or so starts in the infield.

Jake Gatewood, 1B, Carolina (Brewers): .326/.406/.532, five HR, 14 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 42:19 K:BB in 141 ABs.
Rank: 260

Few prospects have improved their stock as much as Gatewood has through 38 games. He still strikes out a bit too much (26.3 percent strikeout rate), and his .436 BABIP is the second highest mark in the league, so he is far from a must add in dynasty leagues. However, his 11.9 percent walk rate is more than his 2015 (7.3 percent) and 2016 (3.4 percent) marks added together. This improved patience has allowed his huge raw power to show up in games more often, and his .206 ISO is easily his best mark in a full-season league. When the loaded Carolina roster gets off the bus, the 6-foot-5 Gatewood is the one who looks like the future middle-of-the-order slugger in the majors. While that outcome is still unlikely, this impressive start is keeping the dream alive.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Chase Vallot, C, Wilmington (Royals): .204/.328/.372, four HR, seven 2B, 52:21 K:BB in 113 ABs.
Rank: 276

Josh Ockimey, 1B, Salem (Red Sox): .317/.421/.500, four HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 38:24 K:BB in 120 ABs.
Rank: 277

Eddy Martinez, OF, Myrtle Beach (Cubs): .217/.273/.318, four HR, one 2B, 1-for-2 on SB attempts, 18:10 K:BB in 129 ABs.
Rank: 278

Jason Martin, OF, Buies Creek (Astros): .276/.342/.493, six HR, one 3B, nine 2B, 8-for-12 on SB attempts, 31:15 K:BB in 134 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Sam Haggerty, 2B/SS, Lynchburg (Indians): .319/.393/.543, six 3B, nine 2B, 10-for-11 on SB attempts, 24:12 K:BB in 94 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B, Potomac (Nationals): .293/.353/.421, two HR, four 3B, four 2B, 2-for-2 on SB attempts, 37:14 K:BB in 140 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Nicky Lopez, SS, Wilmington (Royals): .310/.374/.387, four 3B, four 2B, 8-for-13 on SB attempts, 9:16 K:BB in 155 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Anderson Miller, OF, Wilmington (Royals): .276/.367/.462, six HR, three 3B, three 2B, 11-for-12 on SB attempts, 34:19 K:BB in 145 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Jairo Beras, OF/P, Down East (Rangers): .236/.288/.407, four HR, nine 2B, 0-for-1 on SB attempts, 43:8 K:BB in 123 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Luis Yander La O, 3B, Down East (Rangers): .303/.352/.432, three HR, eight 2B, 5-for-6 on SB attempts, 19:4 K:BB in 132 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Taylor Gushue, C, Potomac (Nationals): .323/.405/.750, 12 HR, five 2B, 24:15 K:BB in 96 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked