Farm Futures: California League Roundup

The California League has admittedly been very low on impact talent this season, both on the hitting and pitching side. Only seven players in the league are ranked in the top 200 at the moment, which has to be the lowest total since I've been covering prospects for RotoWire. This is why I haven't written about the Cal League this season until now. Given the lack of overall talent I decided to just cover the hitters and pitchers in the same piece, whereas with most leagues there is enough talent on the hitting or pitching side to warrant 2,500-3,000 words without combining the two. Be forewarned, this piece probably won't serve as much help for those in shallower dynasty leagues, especially considering I wrote about the top two prospects in the league when they were traded last week. That said, these are all players that serious dynasty league owners should be aware of.

Grant Holmes, RHP, Stockton (A's)
Age: 20
Rank: 74
Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 101:44 K:BB in 109.1 IP.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
Age: 19
Rank: 100
Stats: .262/.262/.357, one HR, one 2B, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 7:0 K:BB in 42 AB.

I wrote about these two when they were traded last week and nothing has really changed, although Holmes admittedly couldn't have gotten off to a much worse start with his new team (4 ER, 8 H, 1:1 K:BB in 4 IP).

Yusniel Diaz, OF, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers)
Age: 19
Rank: 103
Stats: .265/.335/.404, five HR, three 3B, three 2B, 5-for-11 on SB attempts, 51:24 K:BB in 230 AB.

Diaz is one of the better buy-low options in the entire minors. He understandably was unable to get off to a fast start after an aggressive assignment to High-A, then missed a month with an undisclosed injury that he suffered in mid-June which has helped suppress his counting stats this year. Since returning from his injury, the third-youngest player in the Cal League is hitting .300/.354/.483 with two home runs and 13 strikeouts in 14 games. His plus bat speed, above average approach and athleticism should help him continue to handle this aggressive assignment and he will still be one of the youngest players in his league again next year, when he is presumably assigned to Double-A Tulsa. Diaz could be in the discussion as a potential top 50 prospect for dynasty leagues heading into next season if he continues to perform at a high level over the next four weeks.

Luis Urias, 2B, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
Age: 19
Rank: 111
Stats: .326/.394/.440, five HR, three 3B, 21 2B, 7-for-20 on SB attempts, 31:32 K:BB in 368 AB.

Urias is the youngest player in the league and he somehow has more walks than strikeouts. He even hit a home run and got on base seven times in a brief three-game run with Triple-A El Paso in early July before heading back to Lake Elsinore. Urias is listed at 5-foot-9, 160 pounds, but he has a thicker frame than that listing might suggest and his Triple-A homer was actually to the opposite field, so there is more power here than meets the eye. Urias was universally unranked on top prospect lists heading into the year, so he could still be available in dynasty leagues if owners have not been paying attention to his production so far this season. He should sneak onto a few top 100 lists this offseason, so there is a limited window to acquire him before he is properly valued by prospect hounds.

Cody Reed, LHP, Visalia (Diamondbacks)
Age: 20
Rank: 174
Stats: 6.06 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 29:17 K:BB in 35.2 IP.

I liked Reed quite a bit as a competitive prep lefty with a low-to-mid 90s fastball and quality secondary stuff who went in the second round of the 2014 draft, and everyone else seemed to get on board when he posted a 55:3 K:BB in 39.2 innings at Low-A to start the year. As soon as people jumped on the bandwagon however Reed quickly obliterated that trust, getting crushed by Cal League hitting after a well-earned promotion. It's a small sample size and he remains young for the level, so it's too soon to completely forget what he did at previous stops. His dynasty league value this season has exactly mirrored a bell curve and right now, that curve is at its lowest point.

Forrest Wall, 2B, Modesto (Rockies)
Age: 20
Rank: 176
Stats: .257/.320/.358, six HR, four 3B, 11 2B, 16-for-25 on SB attempts, 81:31 K:BB in 369 AB.

A reader recently asked me how Wall has fallen so far relative to where he was ranked before the season (well inside the top 100). Well, the answer to that question should be obvious by just comparing his numbers in Low-A last year with this year's numbers at High-A in a similarly favorable hitting environment, but another answer to that question is this: I was simply wrong in my evaluation of the player. When evaluating baseball prospects, there are going to be hits and misses. Hopefully the hits outnumber the misses and I would stack my record up against anyone else in the industry, but I don't mind admitting when I'm wrong and this appears to be one of those cases. Wall's power numbers have taken a step back -- .438 SLG at Low-A last year versus .358 at High-A this year. His success rate on the bases has declined from 72 percent last year to 64 percent this year. Most importantly though I viewed his .280 average last year as a reasonable baseline, with the potential for him to show a 60 or 65-grade hit tool in time, and instead it seems that last year may end up being the high point for him as a hitter. I hesitate to say any of this definitively because Wall is still just 20 years old and could obviously improve his game and once again profile as a top 10 second baseman in fantasy if he were able to call Coors Field home. Unfortunately, at this point I would bet against that ever happening.

Javier Guerra, SS, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
Age: 20
Rank: 180
Stats: .202/.264/.325, nine HR, one 3B, 19 2B, 4-for-8 on SB attempts, 141:34 K:BB in 391 AB.

Guerra leads the Cal League in strikeouts by a fairly wide margin and his .325 slugging percentage is fourth-worst among qualified hitters. That's a pretty awful combination. He also has 30 errors in 102 games at shortstop this year. It's insane to think that when the Padres acquired Guerra and Manuel Margot, there were some who thought Guerra was the better prospect. This is looking like an excellent sell-high on the part of Dave Dombrowski and company although Margot is the kind of player who could really come back to haunt Boston if they don't win a title with Craig Kimbrel. Guerra could reasonably be dropped, even in deeper dynasty formats, although he is still just 20 years old and possesses above average power with a slight chance of sticking at shortstop.

Michael Gettys, OF, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
Age: 20
Stats: .292/.333/.429, four HR, 11 2B, 8-for-12 on SB attempts, 55:9 K:BB in 168 AB.

Gettys' BABIP has been north of .400 in the Cal League as well as in the Midwest League prior to his promotion. He also has a 30.4 percent K-rate so far with Lake Elsinore, so the surface numbers are a little misleading. His biggest fans will be able to continue to cling to the hope that he could someday be the Padres' leadoff hitter while offering 30-plus steal speed, but he's a long way from that becoming a reality. Still, in a league with this little talent, Gettys showing a glimpse of five-category potential is enough to keep him among the first 10 players mentioned. Gettys is 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, so he does not profile as the type of speedy outfielder who will have trouble barreling balls. That said he'll need to make more contact, especially considering he hasn't posted a walk rate above 6.4 percent as a pro.

Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
Age: 20
Stats: 4.95 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 32:20 K:BB in 43.2 IP.

De Los Santos' numbers since his promotion from Low-A aren't that impressive, but his fastball is now up in the mid-to-low 90s and his curveball and changeup are far enough along that it seems like a solid bet that he makes it as a starter. The 6-foot-3 righty posted a 2.91 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 45 strikeouts in 52.2 innings in the Midwest League earlier this year, establishing himself as one of the best pitching prospects not named Anderson Espinoza in an improved Padres system. If he were to end up in a bullpen role he could be a ninth-inning type, so there is a solid floor here, but unfortunately his struggles thus far at High-A might mean he starts 2017 back in the Cal League, putting him at least a couple years away from contributing at the big league level.

Josh Morgan, 3B, High Desert (Rangers)
Age: 20
Stats: .291/.365/.392, seven HR, one 3B, 16 2B, 4-for-6 on SB attempts, 49:39 K:BB in 388 AB.

Morgan has split his time between third base, second base and shortstop this season, but with over half of his starts coming at third it seems safe to pencil him in as a third baseman for now. While Morgan's approach and ability to make contact are excellent, it's hard to envision him ever being an above average offensive option at the hot corner due to his below average power. It's always possible he could catch everyone by surprise and turn himself into a Matt Carpenter/Justin Turner type, but those guys are the exception. It's much more common for third basemen who don't hit for much power to inevitably move from organization to organization as filler until they eventually wash out.

Michael De Leon, SS, High Desert (Rangers)
Age: 19
Stats: .275/.318/.405, nine HR, one 3B, 20 2B, 7-for-10 on SB attempts, 45:20 K:BB in 375 AB.

De Leon is the second-youngest player in the league and he is really heating up at the plate. He has hit .395 with three home runs over his last 10 games and is essentially a league-average hitter (96 wRC+). That is quite the feat, given his age and the fact that he has a chance to be a plus defender at shortstop. He is really jumpy in the box, with a lot of moving parts in his swing. However, his 11.1 percent K-rate demonstrates his ability to make contact, although a lot of the time he is making weak contact and I would almost prefer it if he swung and missed a bit more often, with the goal of barreling the ball more consistently. That said, his nine home runs would be well received even among his biggest supporters entering the year. High Desert obviously has a lot to do with that, as seven of his nine homers have come at home, but just the fact that he won't be a zero in the power department is a good sign.

Drew Jackson, SS, Bakersfield (Mariners)
Age: 23
Stats: .257/.323/.343, five HR, two 3B, 18 2B, 11-for-19 on SB attempts, 83:34 K:BB in 428 AB.

Jackson, who just turned 23, has 11 steals in 101 games after swiping 47 bases in 59 games in short-season ball last year, which is just another example of why stolen base numbers in the lower levels of the minors are fairly meaningless. He still offers a pretty solid hit tool for a player who could stick at shortstop, but there will be fewer accompanying counting stats than owners may have been counting on coming into the season.

Jairo Beras, OF, High Desert (Rangers)
Age: 21
Stats: .249/.293/.474, 17 HR, two 3B, 17 2B, 4-for-8 on SB attempts, 98:17 K:BB in 321 AB.

It's pretty easy to fall in love with Beras on the right day. He has a gorgeous right-handed power stroke. It comes so easy for him -- the ball just shoots off his bat. Unfortunately his approach needs a lot of work, as he rarely takes a walk and struggles to make consistent contact. Throw in the fact that he has major platoon splits and it's hard to say with confidence that he'll be any more than a lefty-mashing fourth outfielder.

Wes Rogers, OF, Modesto (Rockies)
Age: 22
Stats: .261/.350/.376, four HR, seven 3B, 19 2B, 37-for-43 on SB attempts, 82:49 K:BB in 394 AB.

If it weren't for Rogers' accomplishments on the bases, he'd be close to a non-prospect. However, he continues to post excellent success rates, putting his plus-plus speed to use more often than one would think given his fringe-average hit tool. He has upped his walk rate and lowered his K-rate with the jump from Low-A to High-A and the possibility exists that he'll do enough on the bases and in center field to profile as an everyday player down the road. Despite standing 6-foot-3, Rogers' wiry frame and upper body-centric swing limits his annual home run projection to single digits, meaning he would be a steals and runs only guy in the best case scenario (leading off) and more likely a speed-only outfielder at the bottom of the order.

Johan Mieses, OF, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers)
Age: 21
Stats: .241/.310/.499, 22 HR, two 3B, 26 2B, 3-for-9 on SB attempts, 122:31 K:BB in 373 AB.

Mieses had 16 homers in 161 professional games prior to this season, so he is having a mini-breakout while also taking full advantage of the cozy Cal League confines. That said, he still has a below average hit tool while not demonstrating true plus power or speed. He also has fairly pronounced splits (.908 OPS vs. LHP, .787 OPS vs. RHP), so it's hard to view him as a future regular, despite the apparent upside if the hit tool were to ever take a big step forward.

Franmil Reyes, OF, Lake Elsinore (Padres)
Age: 21
Stats: .259/.318/.440, 14 HR, three 3B, 25 2B, 2-for-5 on SB attempts, 95:35 K:BB in 402 AB.

Reyes has legitimate plus raw power and he has never shown debilitating contact issues, so it's not that surprising to see him take advantage of the Cal League the way he has this year. That said, his hit tool and speed are both well below average and he's probably Avisail Garcia if everything breaks perfectly, which is not a compliment.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Alex Young, LHP, Visalia (Diamondbacks)
Age: 22
Stats: 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 33:15 K:BB in 43 IP.

Ryan Castellani, RHP, Modesto (Rockies)
Age: 20
Stats: 4.19 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 118:45 K:BB in 133.1 IP.

Dom Nunez, C, Modesto (Rockies)
Age: 21
Stats: .253/.345/.370, seven HR, one 3B, 12 2B, 8-for-8 on SB attempts, 66:44 K:BB in 300 AB.

Sandber Pimentel, 1B/DH, Stockton (A's)
Age: 21
Stats: .253/.345/.480, 20 HR, one 3B, 16 2B, 117:43 K:BB in 344 AB.

Juremi Profar, 3B, High Desert (Rangers)
Age: 20
Stats: .295/.356/.440, seven HR, two 3B, 19 2B, 1-for-4 on SB attempts, 42:28 K:BB in 302 AB.

Max White, OF, Modesto (Rockies)
Age: 22
Stats: .248/.324/.400, seven HR, six 3B, 18 2B, 33-for-39 on SB attempts, 116:34 K:BB in 335 AB.

Osvaldo Duarte, SS, Lancaster (Astros)
Age: 20
Stats: .298/.365/.614, five HR, one 3B, one 2B, 3-for-6 on SB attempts, 17:6 K:BB in 57 AB.

Casey Meisner, RHP, Stockton (A's)
Age: 21
Stats: 4.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 76:47 K:BB in 96.1 IP.

Will Smith, C, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers)
Age: 21
Stats: .273/.360/.409, one HR, 1-for-1 on SB attempts, 4:2 K:BB in 22 AB.

Richie Martin, SS, Stockton (A's)
Age: 21
Stats: .203/.293/.267, one HR, two 3B, nine 2B, 10-for-15 on SB attempts, 58:26 K:BB in 251 AB.

Erick Mejia, SS, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers)
Age: 21
Stats: .287/.338/.402, four HR, 10 3B, 16 2B, 19-for-32 on SB attempts, 88:32 K:BB in 418 AB.