Farm Futures: Top Deadline Prospects On the Move

There were a lot of moves at the deadline, but there weren't a ton of high-impact prospects changing hands. Still, 15 of the top 200 prospects switched organizations as well as a handful of other notable players who should be owned in very deep leagues. Here is a breakdown of the top 10 prospects for dynasty leagues to get traded around this year's trade deadline. If you have a question about a prospect who was dealt that I did not touch on in depth, feel free to leave a comment or ask me a question on Twitter.

1. Gleyber Torres, SS, Yankees
Age: 19
Top 200 Rank: 17
Level: High-A
ETA: 2018

Torres was the headlining prospect in the Aroldis Chapman trade that really jump-started the deadline action and put a major wrench in the relief pitching market. If two-plus months of Chapman required a prospect of Torres' ilk plus two other pieces of value in Billy McKinney and Adam Warren and a high-upside throw-in in Rashad Crawford, then fellow southpaw relievers like Andrew Miller and Will Smith were going to cost much more in prospect gold than other contenders originally anticipated. Maybe this was part of Theo Epstein's grand plan, essentially removing teams like the Nationals from the high-end relief market unless they were willing to part with a blue chip prospect. The fact is, Torres was the top prospect moved at this deadline and he didn't really figure into the Cubs' long-term plans. When a team can deal from excess to fill its only need (left-handed reliever) with the best player alive at that specific position, it's really hard to fault them for paying up.

The Yankees landed a no-doubt shortstop in Torres, who possesses average or better tools across the board (the power could be just fringe average although it is at least average relative to the position). He is hitting .271/.356/.424 with nine home runs and 19 steals (on 30 attempts) as a 19-year-old at High-A. That would be an impressive stat line for a 19-year-old toolsy outfielder, but the fact that Torres is a slick-fielding shortstop and also an above average offensive player despite being 3.5 years younger than the average player at that level is what makes him a blue chip prospect.

He not only jumps to the top of the Yankees' prospect rankings, but he jumps over Jorge Mateo (among others) as the Yankees' shortstop of the future. Mateo now figures to be converted to either center field or second base down the road.

2. Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees
Age: 21
Top 200 Rank: 19
Level: Triple-A
ETA: 2017

Oddly enough Andrew Miller, who is under team control through the 2018 season, netted a slightly less impressive headlining prospect than Chapman, although the overall package the Yankees received from the Indians was a tad better than the one they got from the Cubs. Frazier is ranked just two spots behind Torres on the top 200, although if position scarcity was not factored in Frazier would sit atop the Yankees' system.

He has the potential to be a true five-category contributor in fantasy as soon as late next season. Frazier's plus bat speed and lush red locks are the two things that always got brought up first, but what has really propelled his rise up prospect rankings is a strong approach since the start of the 2015 season that was not a given when he was drafted No. 5 overall in 2013. After posting K-rates above 29 percent in 2013 and 2014, he has since been hovering around a 22 percent K-rate while also walking at more than a 10 percent clip. This is a crucial improvement against more advanced pitching that he will need to maintain in order to allow his plus raw power and plus speed to play in games. He also shows very advanced general baseball instincts that will allow him to add counting stats in the margins at the highest level. If everything works out, Frazier could hit anywhere in the top three spots of a big league lineup while hitting around .275 with 20-plus homers and 20-plus steals. Even if he falls a little short of that, there should be enough all-around production for him to be a top 30 outfielder in most formats.

Those who have owned Greg Bird, Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez know how frustrating it can be to have a top prospect blocked in the Bronx and that may also apply to Frazier in the short term in a way that would not have been the case had he remained in Cleveland. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are not going anywhere anytime soon and Judge is likely to take over in right field later this season, so it's unclear where or when there will be a spot open for Frazier. However, now that the Yankees have embraced a mini-rebuild, it would behoove them to work at clearing the way for Frazier for at least the start of 2018, although he should join the club in a part-time role by next September provided he stays healthy. The Yankees' organizational outfield depth means Frazier will likely debut in a full-time role later than would have been the case before the trade, but that is hardly a bad thing for his development.

3. Lewis Brinson, OF, Brewers
Age: 22
Top 200 Rank: 35
Level: Triple-A
ETA: 2017

A lot of people seem to think the Brewers got a bit of a light return for Jonathan Lucroy, but I speculated back in January that I thought a Lucroy/Brinson deal made some sense from the Brewers' perspective.

@cdgoldstein that would be my preference. I'd love something headlined by Brinson.

— James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) January 26, 2016

Since then, Lucroy's perceived value has spiked and Brinson's perceived value (may have) dipped, but at the same time Luis Ortiz's value has also gone up, so the deal seems pretty fair. It's even more justifiable from the Brewers' standpoint when one considers their initial deal with the Indians that Lucroy nixed, as Brinson and Ortiz are both better than any of the prospects the Brewers would have received from Cleveland. I also don't think we can say for certain that Brewers general manager David Stearns preferred Joey Gallo to Brinson. The gap between Brinson and Gallo defensively is massive, and the risk with the hit tool is similar. That said, Gallo is obviously the preferred option in dynasty leagues because of the power upside.

Brinson is a potential star in real life thanks to his plus defense in center field, and he's a potential top 50 player in fantasy thanks to plus raw power and plus speed. When the Rangers selected him with the No. 29 pick in the 2012 draft he was seen as one of those classic prep lottery tickets -- the type who could very realistically never make it past Double-A, but had the upside to be an All-Star if his baseball skills ever caught up to his athleticism. Since then, things have worked out about as well as one could have hoped. Brinson's power and speed have always been evident and he hasn't struck out at a 25 percent clip since his 2014 season at High-A. Few people would ever project his hit tool to be better than a 50 grade, but he could offer Carlos Gomez-level production (the good version) with even a bit more in the on-base department if everything works out. The power/speed/defense combo gives him a solid floor as a low-average 20/20 candidate.

Like Gomez, Brinson is the type of hitter who could test his owners' patience early on as he could struggle to hit .250 in his first couple seasons. He is now one of four high-pedigree center fielders in the Brewers' system (Brett Phillips, Corey Ray and Trent Clark being the others) although he is the closest of the four to being big league ready and the best bet to stick in center field, so playing time shouldn't ever be an issue. He should debut with the Brewers sometime next summer and should be given plenty of time to work on adjustments against big league pitching, as the Brewers competitive window won't realistically open until 2018 or 2019.

4. Dan Vogelbach, 1B/DH, Mariners
Age: 23
Top 200 Rank: 38
Level: Triple-A
ETA: 2016

The Vogelbach/Mike Montgomery trade happened a few days before the trade deadline action really heated up, but he was undoubtedly the best pure hitter to move last month. He goes from a situation with the Cubs where he was never going to be used as more than a DH in road interleague series to the Mariners, where he should be in the lineup every day as soon as next April. It's possible he could be up at some point over the final two months of this season, although with Adam Lind, Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee already in the mix he would likely only start four or five days each week. Vogelbach has a 70 grade hit tool, 60 grade power and 15 grade speed on the 20-80 scale. He will only ever be first base eligible, at best, and could very reasonably settle in as a UT-only slugger which is why he is ranked outside of the top 20 on the prospect rankings.

5. Grant Holmes, RHP, A's
Age: 20
Top 200 Rank: 76
Level: High-A
ETA: 2018

There is a noticeable drop off after Vogelbach, as there is plenty of risk associated with all of the pitching prospects moved at this year's trade deadline and the remaining position players all come with some flaws of their own. Holmes is probably the safest of the pitching prospects who were dealt as he has a thick 6-foot-1, 215-pound frame and the pitch mix to survive as a starter. He has also logged 100-plus innings in back-to-back seasons and should finish this season at around 120-130 innings. By the time he is big league ready, a 180-200 inning workload should be doable. Holmes' K-rate has decreased as he has climbed the ladder though and unless his offspeed stuff takes a noticeable step forward, he is likely a mid-rotation starter who strikes out 180 batters a year. There is plenty of value in that, but given the fact that he's still at least a couple years away from the big leagues, the risk/reward profile leaves him well outside the top 50.

6. Luis Ortiz, RHP, Brewers
Age: 20
Top 200 Rank: 80
Level: Double-A
ETA: 2017

Ortiz's innings totals by year:
2014: 20.1
2015: 50.0
2016: 67.1

Nobody doubts his stuff, but it's easy to see why some are concerned about his ability to hold up to a starter's workload. His plus fastball and plus slider give him a safe floor as a late-inning reliever, but the Brewers will obviously do everything they can to continue to develop Ortiz as a starter. While he is already at Double-A as a 20-year-old this year it is unrealistic to expect him to be able to log 150-plus big league innings until at least 2018, which makes his ETA a little misleading in terms of when owners can expect impactful fantasy production. He has No. 2 starter upside if everything breaks right, but there is an awful lot of risk here for a pitcher at Double-A with two plus pitches.

7. Phil Bickford, RHP, Brewers
Age: 21
Top 200 Rank: 87
Level: High-A
ETA: 2018

Bickford is a big wild card. At 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, and as someone who once sat in the mid 90s, he's young enough and projectable enough to think that his low-90s fastball will tick back up in a year or two. He would not be the first young pitching prospect to lose a few mph on his heater after adjusting to a professional pitching regimen and then have his stuff come all the way back as he adds muscle and gets into better shape. To land Bickford, who also boasts a potentially plus slider, and Andrew Susac, who was an excellent buy low, for Will Smith was a heist. Even if Bickford is only sitting 91-93 mph with his fastball he could be a mid-rotation starter if his changeup continues to develop and his command improves a bit. He still gets swings and misses on his low-90s fastball, after all. He is the type of pitcher who could be a top 25 prospect in baseball or ranked outside of the top 150 by the All-Star break next year.

8. Josh Naylor, 1B, Padres
Age: 19
Top 200 Rank: 102
Level: High-A
ETA: 2019

Naylor is known for a recent prank with a knife that landed Stone Garrett on the DL and perhaps that motivated the Marlins to include their top prospect in the trade to land Andrew Cashner. By next season however, everyone will have forgotten about the knife prank gone wrong and will start to focus back in on what Naylor does on the field. He is the rare power-hitting first base prospect in the lower levels of the minor leagues who doesn't have any problem making consistent contact. Naylor had a 16.8 percent K-rate at Low-A, primarily as an 18-year-old, while serving as an above average hitter (110 wRC+) and parking nine home runs in 89 games prior to the trade. There is much more raw power in his bat that should show up as he moves up the Padres' organizational ladder, although it may not show up in a big way while he is one of the youngest players in the California League. He doesn't walk much (5.9 percent walk rate), so his real life value will be even more depressed relative to the fantasy value of most legitimate first base prospects. He could offer Maikel Franco-level production from the first base position in time, and that will be plenty valuable.

9. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Yankees
Age: 20
Top 200 Rank: 117
Level: High-A
ETA: 2018

When news trickled out that the Yankees would pass on Andrew Miller for Lucas Giolito straight up

for the record, yankees would not do this https://t.co/dPM9QZdJk2

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 29, 2016

it seemed unlikely that Sheffield would be able to serve as the second piece in a package coming from the Indians, but apparently general manager Brian Cashman was more intent on getting quantity over one elite arm. Ben Heller, who served as the third piece, is a very legitimate relief pitching prospect and Frazier is obviously a good get, but I would have preferred Giolito.

Sheffield stands just 5-foot-10 but is athletic and has the potential for three above average pitches in time. Some think he could be a future No. 2 starter, but I don't think he has the command or that one hammer pitch to justify that projection. He is mid-to-low 90s with his fastball and can miss bats with his curve while his changeup lags behind as the third offering. His athleticism and pitchability should allow for him to make everything work despite his short stature, but I see more of a mid-rotation type if everything works out.

10. Adalberto Mejia, LHP, Twins
Age: 23
Top 200 Rank: 130
Level: Triple-A
ETA: 2017

This was a very important trade for both teams, as acquiring Eduardo Nunez allowed the Giants to part with Matt Duffy in the Matt Moore trade, while Mejia gives the Twins another much-needed close-to-the-majors starting pitcher. Nothing about Mejia's repertoire is flashy or would give anyone the false impression that he could hack it as a No. 2 starter, but with advanced pitchability and three average or better pitches from the left side headlined by a 92-94 mph fastball, he could be a low-end No. 3 starter as soon as next year. The trade obviously hurts his fantasy value, as he not only moves from the NL to the AL but leaves a Giants organization that always seems to get the most out of its young starting pitchers. He should join the Twins' rotation sometime in the first half of next season.

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