This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Tuesday bring a Coors matchup with two left-handed starters facing off in Colorado, the highly-anticipated debut of one of the game's top pitching prospects, and a slew of other matchups that are interesting for those who love good pitching, and for those who love crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Depending on the approach with pitching, pricey stacks are easily within reach, creating some unique fade considerations since it will be easier than usual to load up Rockies and Padres bats.
As per usual, keep an eye on the weather around the country, as threats of rain might delay or wash out a game or two.
I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in -- cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) -- which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.
Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.
Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.
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Pitcher
Preferred Cash Play: Michael Kopech, CHW vs. MIN ($6,000)
Also Consider: Blake Snell, TAM vs KC ($9,600), Kyle Hendricks, CHC at DET ($8,100),
Preferred Tournament Play: Patrick Corbin, ARI vs LAA ($10,800)
Also Consider: Jose Berrios, MIN at CHW ($9,100), Masahiro Tanaka, NYY at MIA ($10,200)
Kopech is going to be chalky. A very high-ceiling prospect with a low price tag, pitching at home against a team that moved away a couple key lineup pieces at the trade deadline is the type of debut that only comes around once in a while. Over his last seven starts at Triple-A, Kopech racked up a 59:4 K:BB in 44 innings. He's always and excellent swing-and-miss stuff, and now he appears to have found consistency with his command, which gives him a near-immediate top-of-the-rotation upside. The willingness to use Kopech in a tournament with high ownership comes from the flexibility afforded with the combination of bats you can build around him. There are plenty of viable alternatives, however, if you would rather steer away from the masses right from the start. Also, be sure to keep an eye on the forecast in Chicago, as there is a ~35 percent chance of rain at game time as of 10 am ET.
Corbin is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $10,800, but he's at home, and he draws an Angels team that is without Mike Trout for a few more days. He's posted at least 43 FanDuel points in each of his last three starts, topping out with 59 against the Phillies back on August 8. At -200, the D-backs are among the biggest favorites on the board, and the over/under total sits at an even 8, on a night where lower totals are difficult to come by. Corbin is my preferred tournament play because I think his price will cause many owners to overlook him with Kopech available at a huge discount, and with Blake Snell and Masahiro Tanaka a slight one.
Snell has picked up the win while firing five scoreless innings in each of his last two starts. He's managed to do that while facing pitch-count limits, as the Rays are handling him carefully following a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. A bump up to the 85-90 pitch range is possible Tuesday, and that should be enough for him to get through six frames against a woeful Kansas City lineup, but there is less appeal than usual for tournaments especially, since it seems unlikely that he'll get to work much deep than that with the Rays having every reason to avoid exposing him to unnecessary risk.
I don't have the stomach to use Tanaka in cash games, but a road start in Miami is tempting on that front (I'm still not using him in that format). At the very least, I like him in tournaments, as I think he'll benefit from having a relatively high price tag on a night with Kopech making his debut. The Marlins have the league's lowest team wRC+ (69) over the last 30 days, and their biggest home-run threat (Justin Bour) was removed from the equation when he was flipped to the Phillies as part of a waiver deal earlier this month.
Hendricks draws at Tigers lineup that has mustered a 72 wRC+ over the last 30 days (fourth-worst during that span) on the heels of an effective start against the Brewers over the weekend. Over his last five starts, Hendricks has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points each time out, topping out with 49 in a road start against St. Louis on July 29. The lower price makes him a much better cash play than Tanaka, since that offsets a good deal of risk, and while he might be one of the highest-owned arms behind Michael Kopech in tournaments, it should be a low enough rate to be viable.
Berrios struggled in a home matchup against the Pirates last time out, and a pair of disappointing road turns against Cleveland and Boston have also dragged down his ratios in recent weeks. With all of the attention Tuesday on White Sox starter Michael Kopech, Berrios is an excellent play in his own right. Even though the White Sox's offense has produced at a league-average clip (100 wRC+) over the last 30 days, they have posted a league-high 27.1% K% during that span. With three 60-point starts already on the ledger this season, Berrios has a shot at making it four given the whiff-heavy tendencies of the White Sox. As is the case for those considering Kopech, the weather for this matchup should be monitored closely as lineup lock approaches.
Catcher/First Base
Max Muncy, LAD vs. STL ($3,700) -- The Dodgers are facing St. Louis rookie Daniel Poncedeleon in a home matchup against the Cards on Tuesday night, and Muncy's slightly deflated price makes him a viable second-tier play as he continues to provide thump despite slowing down with his production since the All-Star break. Even if Muncy is more of a .250/.360/.480 hitter the rest of the way, his patience and power makes him playable at this price against unproven and low-end starters when the matchups arise.
Matt Olson (also $3,700) is a viable alternative as well against Texas rookie Ariel Jurado.
Second Base
Travis Shaw, MIL vs. CIN ($3,800) -- Shaw has a lefty-righty matchup at home against Sal Romano makes him one of the better power options in play at second base when you account for the park boost he gets at home, and when you factor in Romano's ongoing struggles against lefties (.369 wOBA allowed). The Brewers' bats started to wake up against Homer Bailey and the Cincinnati bullpen in the series opener Monday (five runs, 12 hits), and the outpouring of runs might not be far off.
If Garrett Hampson draws a start for Colorado, he offers cheap exposure to Coors at even $3,000. DJ LeMahieu will be very chalky at $3,500, and for good reason.
Third Base
Nolan Arenado, COL vs. SD ($4,600) -- This price isn't high enough. Period. Arenado smashes lefties, and he's at home, facing a low-velo southpaw in Robbie Erlin. Paying the freight here is ideal if you can swing it.
Alternatives to consider include Christian Villanueva ($3,400) facing lefty Tyler Anderson at Coors, Adrian Beltre ($2,800) against Brett Anderson, Mike Moustakas ($3,700) against Sal Romano in Milwaukee, and Eugenio Suarez ($3,500) on the other side of the Reds-Brewers matchup against Junior Guerra. Matt Chapman in a righty-righty matchup against Ariel Jurado is also very appealing.
Shortstop
Elvis Andrus, TEX at OAK ($3,100) -- Andrus has been surprisingly quiet against left-handed pitching in 2018, and while it may be small-sample noise, there is an ongoing concern that he might not be 100 percent healthy after suffering a fractured elbow earlier this season. Since returning from the DL on June 18, Andrus is hitting .268/.303/.379 overall with a pair of homers, 21 RBI and four stolen bases. Fortunately, he's kept his K% low during that time (15.5%), and the price is very affordable as he continues to hover around the $3K mark.
Skeptics of Andrus looking to save at the position should consider Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,500) against Tanner Roark, as he continues to hit between third and fifth in the Phillies' lineup on a near-everyday basis.
At a slightly higher price than Andrus, the discount on Carlos Correa ($3,600) is tempting again with his matchup against Seattle's Mike Leake.
Outfield
Andrew McCutchen, SF at NYM ($3,400) -- Among outfielders in play Tuesday, McCutchen has the eighth-highest OPS split on the board (.950), as he continues to pummel left-handed pitching. The Mets have Steven Matz on the hill for Tuesday's matchup against the Giants, and Matz's ongoing struggles with right-handed hitters include a 1.55 HR/9 since the start of 2016 (.331 wOBA). The over/under total for the Giants-Mets game sits at a modest 8.0, but it has plenty of potential to go over if Matz is struggling with his command.
Tommy Pham, TAM vs. KC ($2,900) -- Royals starter Glenn Sparkman had 35 strikeouts in 55 innings over 10 starts at Triple-A this season. Heavy contact tendencies can be punished in a big way, and the Royals also boast the league's worst bullpen, so even if Sparkman finds a way to keep the Rays quiet for five or six innings, damage can be done against the relief corps. Pham had a multi-hit game in his first contest back from the DL, but he's gone quiet with three hitless appearances and five strikeouts in the three games since. Buying into him with a league-average caliber matchup might be risky, but this setup should be a layup for the Tampa Bay offense, and it's somewhat easy to forget that Pham was a top-50 player in season-long drafts back in March following a huge breakout in 2017.
Preston Tucker, CIN at MIL ($2,300) -- The Reds are currently without Joey Votto, and the biggest winner in terms of lineup placement might be Tucker. He'll likely hit fifth for the Reds behind Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez on Tuesday, while reaping the benefits of a big park boost with a road matchup against Junior Guerra and the Brewers at Miller Park. Moreover, both Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress have pitched on back-to-back days (both threw a total of three innings) entering Tuesday's matchup, removing two of the best shut-down relievers from the equation for the Reds' bats.
