This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
There are some clouds expected Tuesday night, but rain isn't a major worry for the slate, which is filled with stud pitching options. You can spend everything there or grab a value arm. Either way, you'll likely need at least one high-end pitcher to have success in cash and GPP.
PITCHING
If you usually skimp on pitching, that strategy probably won't work Tuesday. At least one of the many aces on the slate will have a huge game. Gerrit Cole ($12,700) is most expensive because he's been most consistent with at least 27 fantasy points in seven of his last eight starts. He also faces the White Sox, who have struggled against righties since the All-Star break with a 29.0 K% and .257 wOBA. Clayton Kershaw ($11,800) is similarly consistent with at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six starts, including a 31.7-point effort against Miami. The downside is that the Marlins have a decent .331 OBP against southpaws over the last month. It's the same worry for Lance Lynn ($11,300), as the Blue Jays have a .213 ISO against righty arms since the break. However, Lynn has hit 25 points in his last four outings and two of those came against the Indians and Astros.
You can find the same upside for cheaper, but the matchups are a little harder to trust. Chris Sale ($10,700) is coming off a huge 13-strikeout performance, yet gave up 14 runs in his prior two starts (against the Yankees) and the Indians have a stout 18.2 K% and .355 wOBA against lefties in the last month. Matthew Boyd ($10,300) faces the strikeout-heavy Mariners and Zack Wheeler ($9,400) has cruised through his last few outings, but Jack Flaherty ($9,000) may be the best play in that range with eight hits allowed and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts (20 IP). The Royals haven't been striking out that much against righties, but the same could be said for Flaherty's previous three opponents: the Dodgers, Cubs and Astros.
Given the options at the top, it'll likely be more popular to go cheap instead of the mid-range for a second pitcher. That starts with Yusei Kikuchi ($5,300), who is coming off one of his better performances with eight strikeouts. More importantly, he faces the Tigers, who are better against lefty arms, but still aren't good with a .312 OBP in the last month. Kikuchi made it 6.2 innings against Detroit a couple weeks ago and that's enough for his price. I'd also take a chance on Joe Ross ($5,500) even if his matchup isn't as good. He's allowed four hits and no runs in his last two starts so something is going right. If you want to spend a little more, Jose Quintana ($7,600) is at least putting in positive performances and went seven innings last start, and the Phillies are striking out a lot against lefty arms with a 26.1 K% since the break.
KEY VALUES/CHALK
As expected, the game at Coors Field has the highest over/under on the slate at 12 runs, though I'm not sure I'd throw everything on the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Jon Gray has been decent at home and a couple starts ago went eight innings against the Dodgers, allowing one run. Zac Gallen hasn't pitched in Colorado, though his 29.2 K% and 3.46 FIP are still impressive. If you trust over/unders above everything else, it's best to use Arizona lefties and Colorado righties. You can spend on Ketel Marte ($5,700) and Trevor Story ($5,600) or save a few with David Peralta ($4,700) and Ian Desmond ($4,100).
I'd feel a little more comfortable with someone from the Yankees and that could be the chalkier route due to better prices. John Means has lost some control and has allowed 15 runs and six homers in his last four starts. He only made it 3.2 innings against the Yanks last time out and could have similar trouble. Any of their righty bats are worth it whether it's DJ LeMahieu ($5,000) or Aaron Judge ($4,400), though Gio Urshela ($5,000) could be most popular due to his recent run. The GPP route is to stack Orioles against Domingo German because he's allowed 10 home runs in his last five starts. Jonathan Villar ($4,500) and Trey Mancini ($4,400) cost the most for a reason, yet Stevie Wilkerson ($3,300) and Rio Ruiz ($3,200) are worth a shot for value. Wilkerson has a .231 ISO in his last 51 plate appearances against righty arms while Ruiz is at .289 in his last 40.
The Brewers may have the most enticing matchup because Martin Perez has allowed three homers in three of his last four outings. It's almost like he's returned to 2018 levels when he allowed a .410 wOBA to righty bats and even with some success this season, he's allowing a .341 OBP to righties. Keston Hiura ($5,000) is a bit expensive these days, but I'd still ride with Ryan Braun ($4,700) and Lorenzo Cain ($4,300).
Neither Alex Wood nor Joe Ross have pitched well and that's why the Reds-Nationals games has one of the higher over/unders (10.5). Wood has allowed poor numbers to both sides of the plate in limited time while Ross has allowed a .468 OBP to 80 lefties faced. The Reds have a slew of cheap lefties even if none of them have been consistent like Josh VanMeter ($3,900), Jesse Winker ($3,800) and Tucker Barnhart ($3,400). The Nationals don't have a ton outside of Anthony Rendon ($5,000), but Kurt Suzuki ($3,700) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,500) are worth gambling on in a good situation.
STACKS
Dodgers vs. Jordan Yamamoto (Marlins)
(1B/2B Max Muncy - $4,700), (OF Cody Bellinger - $5,400), (SS Corey Seager - $4,000)
Yamamoto's overall numbers are good because of how he started the season, but that success quickly faded and he's allowed 19 runs in his last four starts. One of those came against the Dodgers in which he allowed a couple homers and four runs in four innings. This stack is a bit expensive with Bellinger, but the Dodgers have more affordable options if needed. Matt Beaty ($3,900) is a cheap lefty while Justin Turner ($4,500) and Will Smith ($4,300) have the best numbers against righty pitchers in the last month despite being righties themselves.
Rangers vs. Thomas Pannone (Blue Jays)
(1B/OF Danny Santana - $4,900), (2B Rougned Odor - $4,100), (3B/C Isiah Kiner-Falefa - $3,000)
Pannone has allowed a .356 OBP to righties, which doesn't mesh well with Texas's .285 ISO against southpaws since the ASB. Santana and Odor are musts while Kiner-Falefa is more of a throw-in to save money, though he's much better against lefties with a career .337 wOBA. Santana has a .404 OBP and .382 ISO in his last 57 PA against lefty arms while Odor is at .407 and .354 in his last 54.
Cardinals vs. Glenn Sparkman (Royals)
(OF Dexter Fowler - $3,900), (2B/3B Tommy Edman - $4,200), (2B Kolten Wong - $3,700)
I've stacked against Sparkman his last few outings and it's worked well. He has allowed 18 runs and six homers in his last three starts to go with a 2.72 HR/9 allowed to lefty bats and .342 OBP to righty bats. The Cardinals don't have a ton of power from the left side, but there are options. If you don't like the lefty stack, you can still use Marcell Ozuna ($4,900) and Paul Goldschmidt ($4,400). Wong is the safest play with a .409 OBP in his last 90 PA against righties while Fowler has a bit more power with a .345 wOBA in his last 98 PA.
