This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
The trade deadline has come and gone, and I, quite frankly, found it rather exciting. Unless you are in an AL-only league and were holding out cash for a big crossover target, odds are you enjoyed it as well. The balance of talent mostly shifted to the National League the last few days, but the American League was not completely robbed.
I think my favorite part about the deadline was when a fake Ken Rosenthal duped a Milwaukee beat writer into saying the Brewers had acquired Jonathan Schoop 90 minutes before the real Ken Rosenthal reported the Brewers had in fact acquired Jonathan Schoop:
Now, let's look at the moves that happened since Monday and how the changes in scenery may impact the player.
Houston and Toronto swap relievers: Ken Giles to Toronto, human garbage to Houston.
Giles was in desperate need of a change of scenery. He was terrible in April 2017 and finished the year well before his issues in the postseason. The numbers this year have been a bit of everything with him having tremendous troubles stranding runners, but he has vastly improved his walks while sacrificing some strikeouts. His strikeout rate is the lowest it has been at any phase of his career. The trade should get Giles back to the major leagues, which helps his value, though it is unlikely he would go into the closer role in Toronto given the team has been fine without the services of their closer most of the
The trade deadline has come and gone, and I, quite frankly, found it rather exciting. Unless you are in an AL-only league and were holding out cash for a big crossover target, odds are you enjoyed it as well. The balance of talent mostly shifted to the National League the last few days, but the American League was not completely robbed.
I think my favorite part about the deadline was when a fake Ken Rosenthal duped a Milwaukee beat writer into saying the Brewers had acquired Jonathan Schoop 90 minutes before the real Ken Rosenthal reported the Brewers had in fact acquired Jonathan Schoop:
Now, let's look at the moves that happened since Monday and how the changes in scenery may impact the player.
Houston and Toronto swap relievers: Ken Giles to Toronto, human garbage to Houston.
Giles was in desperate need of a change of scenery. He was terrible in April 2017 and finished the year well before his issues in the postseason. The numbers this year have been a bit of everything with him having tremendous troubles stranding runners, but he has vastly improved his walks while sacrificing some strikeouts. His strikeout rate is the lowest it has been at any phase of his career. The trade should get Giles back to the major leagues, which helps his value, though it is unlikely he would go into the closer role in Toronto given the team has been fine without the services of their closer most of the season.
Roberto Osuna going to Houston, from a skills level, is an upgrade. Osuna is the better pitcher and should help the team as it tries to repeat as world champs. It is also weird for a team with a zero tolerance policy to trade for someone currently on trial for spousal abuse. There were many relievers on the market to target, and they chose to chase the one with the most baggage. The skills are also no sure thing given the long layoff from live competition.
Minnesota trades Lance Lynn to New York for Tyler Austin.
When a club has Sonny Gray in its rotation, anything is an upgrade. The Yankees might be looking at that 51 percent groundball rate and the recovering strikeout rate and think there is some more juice to squeeze out of Lynn. He has had a terrible time with walks since returning from Tommy John surgery, walking 10 percent of hitters in 2017 and 13 percent this season. The StatCast data shows Lynn's performance, to date, has been exactly as it should be without any luck in either direction. Today, Lynn came in to effectively relieve Gray, who once again was terrible for the Yankees. The two could quickly swap roles, which would then allow Lynn to enjoy that Yankee run support.
The Twins get rid of Lynn's remaining salary and get a useful piece in Tyler Austin in return. The first base/outfield type will not likely have a 2018 impact as the depth chart still has some depth to it at his positions, but that could change in the offseason. His pop potential makes him an intriguing late add in AL-only leagues next year depending on what Minnesota does with the roster over the winter.
Atlanta acquires half of the Baltimore roster for the Double-A Mississippi Braves: Brach to the Braves
Atlanta wanted to improve its roster depth, so it acquired a trio of pitchers from the worst team in the league, netting Kevin Gausman, Darren O'Day and Brad Brach. The Braves will have to wait for O'Day's hamstring to heal before getting to use him in their multi-faceted bullpen. Brach, usually reliable in Baltimore, was struggling this season with his strikeouts down, his walks up and his BABIP way up compared to his career average. He has historically been tough on righties, but that has not been the case this year. In short, Brach gets marginalized in the Braves pen unless they decide to go the experience route and give Brach another run.
Gausman is the key haul, and we should be intrigued. He gets out of the AL East and its cozy run environments and tough lineups and can get the run support he has not had most of the season. Gausman had a 6.39 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in nine starts against AL East teams this season and a 3.13 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP against all other teams over 12 starts. He averaged a home run per start in both situations, but a change of scenery, the better defense and facing the opposing pitcher two to three times a game should give Gausman a nice in-season boost the rest of the season
Atlanta adds a bat while making room for the new arms.
The Braves clearly wanted to move some youth for experience to make their push for the NL East title, so they moved Matt Wisler, Lucas Sims and Preston Tucker for Adam Duvall. For now, the two pitchers go to Louisville until the team can trade Matt Harvey via waivers while Tucker goes into the outfield rotation in left field. Duvall goes into a fourth outfielder role in Atlanta as Duvall is not going to unseat any one of the three starters in the outfield. Duvall has disappointed this season at the plate as his power numbers have fallen from the last two seasons. The bench role now allows Atlanta to use him based on matchups, but that is not welcomed news to NL-only owners who have been using his power.
Los Angeles sends a former second-sacker basher to Minnesota for a current one.
Dozier gives the Dodgers another right-handed flyball pull hitter who can help them in the lineup now while Justin Turner is still out on the mend. Dozier's power numbers are well down on the season as he is going to struggle to get to the mid-20s in homers for the first time in four seasons. He retains his ability to hit lefties well, but once the Dodgers lineup is back at full strength, Dozier's playing time will be marginalized whereas he was an everyday guy in Minnesota. Forsythe has been an abject failure as a hitter since he left the Rays after the 2016 season. That will not change in Minnesota.
Milwaukee and Baltimore swap shortstops.
Everyone saw the Brewers adding a starter at the deadline, and they zagged and grabbed even more offense in Jonathan Schoop. Schoop had been hot out of the break, homering in five consecutive games, but has otherwise had a terrible season at the plate with a .273 OBP and a .244 batting average. Despite the power, he was having a below-average offensive season, and was already in a great home ballpark, so the change to Milwaukee should not be a factor. The better lineup around him should help, but if he cannot get on base, that will not matter.
Jonathan Villar has not played since the All-Star break due to a thumb injury. Villar too was having a below-average season at the plate, but had still swiped 14 bases. That running game will likely take a hit under Buck Showalter's cautiousness, which is unfortunate for those carrying Villar's bad numbers for empty steals.
Cleveland gets its outfielder, just not the one people expected.
The Indians were rumored to be chasing Adam Jones, but ended up with a nice consolation prize in Leonys Martin. Martin has had a resurgence at the plate this season after being horrendous for most of the previous three seasons. The folks at Beyond the Boxscore had some nice data on Martin:
Leonys Martin Barrel% by season2015: 2.2%2016: 5.3%2017: 4.2%2018: 10.5%Exit Velocity2015: 84.92016: 85.62017: 83.82018: 87.1xwOBA2015: .2432016: .2772017: .2602018: .318
— Beyond the Box Score (@BtBScore) July 31, 2018
Martin should enjoy a cozier home park and starting in center most nights with better overall offensive talent surrounding him. If you're looking for someone who could score 30 runs the rest of the way with 7-10 steals, you should consider making a move to acquire Martin.
Boston reverses the story from college.
Ian Kinsler transferred to Arizona State in 2002 and was told he was going to be Dustin Pedroia's double-play partner that season. Kinsler stumbled out of the gate, Pedroia went back to shortstop, and Kinsler never got the job back. Fast forward 16 years, and Boston is giving Kinsler the job Pedroia has not been able to make it back on the field to handle. Kinsler should enjoy the Green Monster, but he is having a disappointing offensive season for a second consecutive year. He has rarely missed a game over the course of his long career, and that wear and tear is catching up to him. The road environments and the younger pitching in the AL East should be nicer for Kinsler than what he has experienced on the road in the AL West, so give him a small bump up in value.
Pittsburgh finally got busy.
The front office has taken a beating from the fan base about its inaction in building a winner. This year, it took that criticism to heart and got a front-of-the-rotation-arm in Chris Archer and more experience in the pen with Keone Kela. Kela, paired with Felipe Vazquez, is an unfair righty/lefty situation at the back of the pen that can miss plenty of bats when needed. The trouble is that Kela loses his role as the closer and goes into a setup role looking for scraps of saves the rest of the way.
Archer, meanwhile, gains value moving to Pittsburgh. Archer desperately needed out of the AL East. I tweeted out a series of numbers on Sunday when the rumors got hot and heavy on Archer:
For Archer's career, he's thrown 48% of his pitches against teams in the AL East. Here are his splits for different metrics ALE vs Rest:ERA: 4.02 / 3.40wOBA: .311/.293K-BB% 17% / 20%HR/9: 1.12 / 0.88SwSTR%: 11.8 / 13.5Chase%: 26.9/29.5Needs a relocation https://t.co/DERzLdUyy1
— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) July 28, 2018
83 of Archer's 177 starts have come against NYY (18), BOS (21), TOR (25), & BAL (19). DET only other team he has faced at least 10 times. I truly feel there is an overexposure issue in play with him inside the east. Firmly believe he takes a step up when he steps out
— Jason Collette (@jasoncollette) July 28, 2018
It is insane that any one pitcher would throw nearly 50 percent of his career pitches within his division, but that is the terrible side effect of unbalanced scheduling. Archer's numbers outside of "The Beast" are quite good, and he also now gets to face pitchers who are going to look foolish against his slider.
I believe Archer and Gausman have the most to gain from the trades over the last few days and think Archer could finally pitch like the guy everyone drafts in March. His secondary indicators have hinted at him getting ready to take a surge forward, and this relocation may be just the thing he needed.
