Collette Calls: 2024 NL West Bold Predictions

Happy Holidays to all, and I hope many of you reading this are wrapping up what has been some much-needed downtime from the daily grind or perhaps a respite from too much time with family and the associated noise which comes from such gatherings. Welcome to the 10th season of my bold predictions, where I look for ways to challenge the marketplace and groupthink on a hitter and a pitcher from each team. I look at established players while also digging deep for names, in an effort to make this article relevant to shallow mixed-league fantasy managers as well as those playing in deep AL- or NL-only formats. 

I considered last season a rather successful one for this series because it included some five-star hits for hitters and pitchers:

Pitching five stars included:

• Braxton Garrett barely inside the top 500 by ADP but finishing the season as the 52nd-best fantasy pitcher
• Cristopher Sanchez with an ADP of 749, but finishing 123rd overall in the pitcher rankings
• The declaration to strongly fade Nick Lodolo against his market price
• Pushing the Mitch Keller breakout season
• Predicting Blake Snell winning the Cy Young
• Pushing the Kyle Bradish breakout season
• Encouraging jumping in on Bailey Ober, who pushed his rankings from outside the top 100 pitchers to inside the top 50 at season's end
• The demise of Jose Urquidy
• Going all-in on George Kirby

Hitting five stars included:

• Michael Harris not being a top-75 overall player
• Jorge Soler's power rebound
• Bryson Stott's coming out party
• Fading the market on Jake McCarthy
• Encouraging fantasy managers to get Nolan Jones 
• Predicting a breakout season for Ha-Seong Kim

25 percent of the 60 predictions I made played out as well as I could have predicted, but that also means 75% of them missed the boat. This is not an all or nothing game, as my predictions for the likes of Carlos Rodon, Chris Martin, Jarren Duran, Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Pham among others played out. There were also several predictions which never played out for Gavin Lux, David Villar, Chad Pinder, Akil Baddoo and Nick Pratto among other names. The five-star list above also has almost twice as many pitchers as it does hitters, and I am striving for more balance in this 2024 body of work.

The purpose of these bold predictions has always been to help you think differently about players. We are sometimes made to behave as acolytes to ADP reports or a particular site's rankings and projections. You're a RotoWire subscriber, so you clearly enjoy the work the team here provides, but we also recognize that many fantasy managers subscribe or utilize multiple services. I encourage such behavior because it allows you to do further research as to why one site or projection system is more bullish or bearish on a player than another. I'll illustrate how this played out with the crown jewel of my 2023 predictions in calling the Blake Snell Cy Young Award.

These were Snell's projections from four different projection systems in late February when I made my call:

There was volatility across the board save for wins, where each system figured Snell would benefit from a productive offense around him to get to double digits. What got my attention was the ratios, because Steamer thought better days were ahead while The BAT was zagging the other direction. I was also intrigued with the disparity in the two camps which formed on Snell's WHIP. That was enough to get me diving further into the pitcher to see why. What I found was how Snell made in-season adjustments after beginning 2022 0-5 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP to adjust his repertoire, and the new mix led to him closing the season 8-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.11 WHIP alongside a 26.6 percent K-BB%. Fantasy managers who had Snell on their roster in 2022 remember how well he closed the season, and I saw a pitcher now one skill away from being the best in his league: health. Snell had only pitched more than 130 innings in one season, and when he did, he won the AL Cy Young. Snell went on to pitch 180 innings and ended the season on a 13-3 run with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, becoming just the seventh pitcher to take home the award in both leagues. 

Regardless of what I write over the next few weeks, I encourage you to do your own homework on these players if you believe the projections are off or if you think I'm off my rocker. Projection systems take into account ballpark changes as well as environmental changes while also modeling out contact predictions. Efforts looking into such impacts on a player typically lead to adjustments on the fringe, as these are ingredients already baked into the secret sauce of predictions. It's like going to a barbecue restaurant and dumping sauce all over the pulled pork before even tasting the product on the paper plate. Chew on the projections as well as my predictions for a bit. If you don't like the taste, add whatever ingredients you desire to make the hitter or pitcher more palatable or simply discard them if they just aren't up to your taste. 

ADP references in the predictions are based Draft Champion ADPs for the 30 days prior to the creation date of this article. In this case, the sample size is 12 drafts from 11/27/23-12/27/23. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jorge Barrosa is a top-80 NL Outfielder (current ADP 749)

Nothing like kicking off a bold prediction series with someone who doesn't have a single plate appearance in the big leagues and is a haircut taller than Jose Altuve. It isn't worth calling up the projections for Barrosa as they don't exist on this site and Steamer only projects him for a cup of coffee. Therefore, we can look at some of his minor-league stats and even a lengthy video clip showing how he hit in the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League.

Arizona's AA and AAA affiliates are in Amarillo, Texas and Reno, Nevada. Amarillo is the most elevated Double-A ballpark at 3,600 feet above sea level while Reno is nearly 1,000 feet higher at 4,500 feet above sea level. Thus, I'm not spotlighting the 25 homers Barrosa has hit over the past two seasons and am more focused on his other skills. His walk rate at the upper levels has been outstanding, but the 37-for-55 effort stealing bases has room for improvement. Left field in Arizona is settled for the foreseeable future with Corbin Carroll in play, but the rest of the outfield is in flux as neither Alek Thomas nor Jake McCarthy have a track record of major-league success. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is back to get playing time in the outfield but there is certainly a path for Barrosa to make it to the big leagues in 2024 and help NL-only fantasy managers in deeper leagues who can stash the upside at the draft to see how things play out in-season.

Zac Gallen finishes outside the top-100 final rankings (current ADP is 39; min 31, max 49)

I am already on record with my concerns for Gallen this season, but now I'm putting a number behind my concerns. Gallen is currently going as the eighth starting pitcher in drafts, just behind George Kirby and in front of the first closer, Devin Williams. The last pitcher to lead the league in innings, total pitchers and batters faced in the same season was Walker Buehler and before him, Justin Verlander. Gallen leans closer to Buehler in age than Verlander was when he accomplished the feat. Verlander had also done some previous heavy lifting, while Gallen and Buehler had never eclipsed the 200-inning mark. This prediction has nothing to do with any skills degradation; instead, I'm concerned about the hangover effect a 32.4 percent increase in workload year over year and a 101.4 percent increase from 2021 will have on Gallen. 

Colorado Rockies

Brenton Doyle is a top-75 outfielder (current ADP 442; min 363, max 585)

This is normally the type of player I completely disregard, which has been a big blind spot for me in the past because I've written off bad strikeout rates and looked for safer options. However, bold predictions aren't supposed to be safe and since I was rewarded with Nolan Jones last season despite contact issue throughout the minors, I'm doubling down with Doyle. After all, if Colorado doesn't care about the strikeouts, why should I if my roster construction is such that I can absorb a batting average risk with steals upside? 

Doyle had one of the worst strikeout rates in baseball last season, and there is not a single part of his batting profile on Baseball Savant which has an ounce of red ink. The only area even above 30 percent is his Barrel%, which was in the 52nd percentile last season. However, he is an elite defender with elite sprint speed and excellent baserunning skills, and that is going to keep him in the lineup for Colorado on a daily basis even if he's striking out more than 30 percent of the time. This is Jose Siri with fewer homers but many more steals and without the threat of losing playing time in some platoon situation. Doyle struggled to hit for average, and somehow is the only Rockies player in the history of forever who hit 68 points worse at Coors (.168) than he did on the road (.236).  That will balance itself out, and his 85 percent stolen base success rate as a professional player (93 of 110) shows he has the ability to further tap into the stolen base market as he raises his on-base percentage from (gulp!) .250. 

You can't roster too many players of this profile, but if you've drafted well enough in the rest of the draft, you should absolutely give Doyle's speed upside a chance because he's going to be playing on a daily basis as his defensive abilities in Coors are invaluable.

Victor Vodnik has positive fantasy value in 2024 (no current ADP)

It's challenging to make a remotely accurate bold prediction for a volatile pitching situation such as the one which impacts Colorado pitchers. I feel like I swing and miss badly at this every season, so I wanted to look back to see how I have done:

• 2015: "Adam Ottavino is closing by the break and never looks back." He had 3 saves and worked 11 innings.
• 2016: skipped pitchers
• 2017: "Tyler Anderson wins 10-plus games with a 3.50 ERA and 140 strikeouts." Not even close.
• 2018: "German Marquez finishes in the top-60 for starting pitchers." He went 14-11 with a 3.77 ERA and struck out 230.
• 2019: "Scott Oberg is a top-150 pitcher." He won six games, saved five more along with a 2.25 ERA, but was out of baseball after the season.
• 2020: "Jairo Diaz is a top-100 pitcher." Even in a COVID season, his numbers were disastrous.
• 2021: "Robert Stephenson is a top-250 pitcher." OK, I was two years early on this one as he was awesome....in 2023.
• 2022: "Robert Stephenson leads Colorado in saves." Again, wishcasting, but redemption finally struck in 2023.
• 2023: "Fineas Del Bonta-Smith has positive value." He did not throw a single major-league pitch.

Marquez was a big hit, and Oberg wasn't terrible for NL-only managers, but the rest of that list was rather terrible. There is no doubt I'm ready to be hurt again here, so let's go with one of the names Colorado received in the Pierce Johnson deal over the summer in Vodnik. 

Vodnik worked just over 61 innings across three levels in two organizations in 2023, striking out 81 batters and allowing 56 hits. The only stop in which he had a hiccup was his handful of innings in Triple-A, but otherwise he was dominant. working in the upper 90s with his fastball while flashing a changeup and slider. The video below shows some rather excellent pitch execution:

Simply put, Vodnik has gained velocity in recent seasons and punched out 235 batters in 194 innings as a minor leaguer. The Rockies will find some use for this talent in the bullpen this season and an opportunity at saves could be there should Justin Lawrence's control not improve in 2024. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Will Smith is not a top-eight catcher (current ADP 88; min 70, max 109)

This prediction is not one based off any concerns with Smith's skills as a hitter, because he remains excellent in every area at the plate. The concern with Smith is how he's going to get to 500 plate appearances for a fourth consecutive season now that Shohei Ohtani will be the full-time designated hitter. Smith got 108 plate appearances at DH in 2022 and 62 there in 2023, but that will be severely reduced in 2024 with Ohtani consuming most if not all the DH plate appearances for the Evil Empire of the West Coast this season. Simply put, there isn't a clear path to the volume of playing time which Smith has enjoyed the past few seasons, which will make it tough for him to capitalize on what should be an amazing offense this season. 

Smith is projected to hit cleanup behind three hitters who had OBPs above .400 last season, but his career high of games started at catcher is 111. I cannot get behind taking a catcher so highly when there are other options going 40 or more picks after him with a clearer pathway to higher volumes of playing time and production. 

Tyler Glasnow wins the Cy Young (current ADP 43; min 31, max 54)

This type of pick worked so well for me last year within this division that I am repeating it again with another former Rays pitcher. We all know that Glasnow can match up with the best pitchers in baseball and is absolutely filthy when he is on his game. However, it's tough to win a postseason award when you have never pitched more than 120 innings in a season. Glasnow's injuries at the major-league level have included forearm soreness in 2019, Tommy John surgery in 2022, and oblique, cramping and back issues which struck in 2023. 

Glasnow's season-high for innings at any level was 124.1 innings while working in High-A for Pittsburgh in 2014. This bold prediction is 1,000 percent predicated on Glasnow bucking his career trend and making 30 starts in a season and doing what Snell did last year. Glasnow should have a plethora of run support around him in Los Angeles, something which only surfaced last season in Tampa Bay. He won 10 of his 21 decisions last season so we could imagine 14-15 wins over 30 starts with 200+ strikeouts. Glasnow's homecoming to southern California could be a very special one. This is a boom or bust prediction because Glasnow could cost you as high as a second round pick as it only takes one Dodger fan wearing rose-colored glasses to push Glasnow's price into the second round. 

San Diego Padres

Matthew Batten is a top-400 overall player (current ADP 662, taken in 1 of 12 drafts)

San Diego is retooling their offense with the departure of Juan Soto via trade and the bottom third of their lineup has thinned out in a hurry. Batten, Cal Mitchell and Jose Azocar are the projected 7-8-9 hitters whose job it is to flip the lineup over and help Xander Bogaerts end his three-year slide in RBIs. On paper, it could be a fourth straight year of slide, although it would damn near impossible for someone playing 160 games to drive in fewer than 58 runs again. 

I have my eye on Batten because he has accepted his walks as a big leaguer, extending a trend which followed him around the minor leagues. He has a .338 career OBP as a big leaguer thanks to those walks and a .362 OBP as a minor leaguer in over 2100 plate appearances. He also owns an 81 percent stolen base success rate in his professional career and was 29 of 35 last season between Triple-A and the big leagues. 

It is those skills which must carry this bold prediction, as Batten has yet to demonstrate the ability to hit fastballs as a big leaguer. He is 16 of 84 when putting fastballs in play, which computes to a .191 average, and his expected batting average on those pitches isn't much higher. Batten doesn't possess much power, so opposing pitchers will throw plenty of fastballs his way until he shows he can handle them. His Whiff% off fastballs was nearly twice as high as what it was off changeups, which is extremely rare to find in anyone's profile. The risk level in this prediction is very high given his limited offensive production outside of steals and runs, but Batten could be a productive reserve pick in deeper leagues. 

Michael King is a top-40 overall pitcher (current ADP 143; min 129, max 163)

This Rays fan is happy that this guy is out of the division and no longer available to the Yankees. I'm also rather intrigued to see how King makes the transition from long reliever to full-time starter, as the Padres want him in their rotation this season after acquiring him in the Soto deal. King is coming off an unusual season in which he worked 104.2 innings in a swingman role while winning four games and saving six others, a workload which was easily a career high for him and double what he put up the previous season. 

King is incapable of throwing anything straight, as his stuff zigs and zags in and out of the zone, with sweepers moving west and changeups moving east around lively fastballs. King has had 40 percent whiff rates on his non-fastballs each of the past two seasons, and pitching away from Yankee Stadium may allow for a more consistent approach to the plate as his opponent's wOBA on the road was 40 points lower than it was in The Bronx. King became a starter for the Yankees late in the season and looked great doing so.

King would have to jump up about five rounds in drafts to make it to the top-40 overall pitcher, as Kyle Bradish currently occupies the 40th spot with an ADP of 89. King's current market price has him going just behind Chris Bassitt and Jordan Montgomery and in front of Hunter Greene and Merrill Kelly, but the upside is worth reaching a bit here if you see pitchers flying off the board. 

San Francisco Giants

Wade Meckler is a top-100 outfielder (current ADP 608; taken in 1 of 12 drafts)

It will be interesting to see how Bob Melvin will manage the San Francisco lineup differently than his platoon-happy predecessor Gabe Kapler. The only certainty in the Giants' outfield would appear to be the recently-acquired Jung Hoo Lee, who should patrol center field on a daily basis. However, the rest of the outfield could be another platoon situation, with Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski for righties and Austin Slater and Mitch Haniger for lefties. Uncertainty presents opportunity, which is why I am intrigued with Meckler.

Meckler would be yet another lefty outfielder in the mix, but one with some redeeming qualities. He possesses a .370/.465/.517 career stat line in 106 minor-league games coming on the heels of a .326/.435/.467 line in three seasons of college ball at Oregon State. Simply put, Meckler loves to get on base, and what he lacks in power he makes up for in speed. Meckler's OBP skills and speed are an interesting combination with Melvin coming to town, who has a positive impact on stolen bases, unlike Kapler. 

If you're looking for late speed in deeper drafts, Meckler possesses the right mixture to provide those steals if the top prospect can crack an outfield rotation that's full of thirty-somethings aside from Lee.

Landen Roupp is a top-250 pitcher (current ADP 725; taken in 1 of 12 drafts)

Yes, I'm doing some deeper digging in this article, but this Giants team doesn't exactly excite me otherwise, so I'm looking for opportunity in newer names. The rotation has lost Alex Cobb due to free agency hip surgery for some time and is going with some unprovens behind their veterans Logan Webb, Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling. San Francisco used 13 different starting pitchers last season due to injuries and the frequent usage of openers and bulk relievers, with just Webb and Cobb starting more than 20 games. Bob Melvin is unlikely to go as bulk-heavy as Kapler, and the departure of Sean Manaea in free agency takes away the club's best bulker anyhow. 

Roupp is a highly-rated prospect in the organization after being drafted from UNC-Wilmington and has pitched to a 10-3 record in the system with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 146.1 innings. Roupp has the classic repertoire of a starting pitcher, but his best pitch is a very high-spin curveball, which you can see being showcased in the video below:

Roupp has yet to pitch in Triple-A and has just over 57 innings of experience in Double-A, but he is already 25 years of age with four years of collegiate development and three seasons in the Giants farm system under his belt. He will be making major-league starts for San Francisco at some point this season assuming the issue which led to him being lifted from his last start in early July is behind him.