AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and talent on an A-E scale. Julio Rodriguez would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects that could thrive in an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

<!--td {border: 1px solid #cccccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Shane BieberCLESPB235
Triston McKenzieCLESPB235
Sawyer Gipson-LongDETSPC137
John MeansBALSPCNo25
Bailey OberMINSPC125
Kenny RosenbergLASPDNo14
Paul BlackburnOAKSPC111
Cal QuantrillCLESPC111

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and talent on an A-E scale. Julio Rodriguez would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects that could thrive in an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

<!--td {border: 1px solid #cccccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}-->

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Shane BieberCLESPB235
Triston McKenzieCLESPB235
Sawyer Gipson-LongDETSPC137
John MeansBALSPCNo25
Bailey OberMINSPC125
Kenny RosenbergLASPDNo14
Paul BlackburnOAKSPC111
Cal QuantrillCLESPC111
Taylor ClarkeKCRPD137
Robert StephensonTBRPDNo14
Jose UrquidyHOURPCNo12
Louie VarlandMINRPCNo13
Logan PorterKCCDNoNo1
Bobby DalbecBOS1BDNoNo1
Heston KjerstadBAL1BB1 / 53 / 117 / 21
Jared WalshLA1BDNoNo3
David FletcherLA2BDNoNo3
Michael MasseyKC2BC13Rostered
Wilyer AbreuBOSOFC37Rostered
Oswaldo CabreraNYOFCNo14
Estevan FlorialNYOFCNoNo1
Aaron HicksBALOFC37Rostered
Manuel MargotTBOFCNoNo2
Brett PhillipsLAOFCNo14
Ceddanne RafaelaBOSOFB25Rostered

Starting Pitcher

Shane Bieber / Triston McKenzie, Guardians: I'm listing both these guys together, as both could rejoin the Cleveland rotation as soon as this coming weekend. Bieber threw 50 pitches for Double-A Akron on Tuesday, while McKenzie tossed 44 for Akron on Wednesday, and both looked good doing it. They'll each need at least one more rehab start before being activated, but they could be ready to handle 75-80 pitches when they are. A weekend activation would line them up for two starts before the season's over, but with the Guardians all but out of the playoff race, there may not be a lot of incentive for the club to actually get them back in 2023. If you have a bench spot to churn and need those two starts though, keep them in mind – especially with Cleveland's last series of the season coming in Detroit. Both – 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $5

Sawyer Gipson-Long, Tigers: The unheralded 25-year-old has had an impressive start to his big-league career with a 16:3 K:BB through 10 innings over two starts, but those outings did come against the White Sox and Angels. Gipson-Long's last two opponents don't figure to be much tougher though, as he'll pitch in Oakland this week and host the Guardians for the final weekend. The strikeout upside is real – he fanned 50 in 34.2 innings prior to his promotion – even if the ratios are a bit of a mirage. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

John Means, Orioles: Means made his season debut Tuesday and lasted 75 pitches, giving the O's five solid innings against the Cards. The southpaw gets two starts this week – on the road in Houston (second in wRC+ against LHP) and Cleveland (29th) – so he could provide a boost for the stretch run, but don't expect a lot of strikeouts. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Bailey Ober, Twins: The righty returned to the Minnesota rotation Friday and pitched well enough to push Dallas Keuchel to the bullpen, although that was a very low bar to clear. He's in Cincinnati this week and hosts the A's for his likely final start of the year, so there is some value here given his solid numbers overall in 2023. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Kenny Rosenberg, Angels: Rosenberg's put together back-to-back solid starts, so he'll draw some attention, but the 28-year-old lefty has a tough closing schedule – at Tampa this week, hosting the Rangers next week. As such, he's a much riskier option than the other SPs listed this week, and he may not have the strikeout upside to compensate if he does get roughed up a bit. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Other two-start options, Mon-Sun (12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $1)

Paul Blackburn, A's (vs. SEA, vs. DET)
Cal Quantrill, Guardians (at KC, vs. BAL)

Relief Pitcher

Taylor Clarke, Royals: Clarke picked up saves Friday and Saturday, the latter a one-out special after Carlos Hernandez started the ninth in a no-save situation and gave up a couple runs. Hernandez has been awful lately, and while the Royals may not win a lot of games over the final couple weeks, what late leads they do create figure to get handed off to Clarke. He's had some bumpy outings in September too, but since coming off the IL about a month ago, he's posted a closer-worthy 13:2 K:BB through nine innings. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Robert Stephenson, Rays: Tampa Bay's latest reclamation project hasn't given up a run since August 9, posting an eye-popping 22:1 K:BB over 12 innings during his 14-appearance scoreless streak. Stephenson probably won't see many save chances the rest of the way, but he's got seven holds during his dominant stretch and should be a ratio asset. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Jose Urquidy, Astros: J.P. France is fading badly, and while Urquidy hasn't been pitching particularly well lately himself, he did throw 73 pitches in his last relief appearance two Fridays ago and would be stretched out should Dusty Baker decide to make a change. France's spot in the rotation lines up to host the Royals this week before a potentially crucial series against the M's next week, and rolling the dice on an Urquidy resurgence isn't the worst idea for Houston given how tight the AL West standings are. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $2

Louie Varland, Twins: Varland's been very impressive in a long relief role in September, posting a 2.16 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 11:1 K:BB through 8.1 innings over four appearances, and he vultured a win in one of them when Joe Ryan couldn't get through the fifth inning. If you're in a dogfight in ERA and WHIP, Varland could be a very smart, very sneaky pickup and a better option for you than a risky SP. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $3

Catcher

Logan Porter, Royals: Salvador Perez took a foul tip off the mask Saturday and left the game, and while he was initially diagnosed as having avoided a concussion, you never know if or when post-concussion symptoms might surface. If he does become unavailable, Porter's the only other healthy catcher on the roster at the moment. The 28-year-old showed modest power and a decent batting eye at Triple-A this year, but if you pick him up, what you'd really be hoping for is one of those fluky late-September surges against weaker pitching. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

First Base

Bobby Dalbec, Red Sox: With Triston Casas potentially done for the season, Dalbec got called back up to help fill that hole. He's slugged 33 homers at Triple-A this season, but with a 34.3 percent strikeout rate, and the 28-year-old is pretty much the definition of a Quad-A hitter at this point in his career. Don't expect Dalbec to be a full-time starter over the last couple weeks, as Justin Turner should slot in at 1B frequently, but he might put a couple balls over the Green Monster when he is in the lineup. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Heston Kjerstad, Orioles: Much as I rag on Rob Manfred for most of the things he's done, the new roster rules for rookies have been a resounding success and have kept a steady flow of top prospects joining big-league rosters all year. Kjerstad's (probably?) the last of the 2023 crop, making his MLB debut Thursday and slugging his first big-league homer Friday. Ryan Mountcastle's shoulder hasn't been bad enough to land him on the IL, and Ryan O'Hearn keeps producing, so Kjerstad likely won't see regular playing time over the final weeks – which makes him a better keeper stash (the second set of bids) than a redraft option. The 24-year-old should have a regular role in 2024 though, especially if the team parts ways with players like Mountcastle and Anthony Santander in the offseason. Kjerstad's health issues seem to be firmly behind him too, based on his .303/.376/.528 slash line over 122 games in the high minors this season. 12-team Mixed: $1 / $5; 15-team Mixed: $3 / $11; 12-team AL: $7 / $21

Jared Walsh, Angels: Speaking of health issues, Walsh's 2023 got ruined by migraines that also caused insomnia, but he's back on the big-league roster and looked 100 percent as he homered in back-to-back games Friday and Saturday. The Angels will give Nolan Schanuel the regular job at first base down the stretch, but Walsh has paths to at-bats at DH and in the Halos' patchwork outfield, and it's always possible he turns the clock back to 2021. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Second Base

David Fletcher, Angels: The veteran infielder has started two straight games since being called back up, once at second base and once at third, and he could be slipping into the super-utility role Luis Rengifo vacated. Fletcher was hitting .330 at Triple-A Salt Lake, but that's the only category you can really count on him making an impact. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Michael Massey, Royals: The 25-year-old has gone on a couple power binges this season despite only having 14 homers on the season, and he's having one now – Massey went yard in three straight games this week, adding a fourth back on Sept. 5. He could go cold as soon as you pick him up, but given how little time is left on the schedule, if you have any soft spots in your lineup, you've run out of time to let those guys turn things around. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: Rostered

Outfield

Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox: Boston's got no reason to give veterans like Adam Duvall consistent playing time any more, and with Casas on the IL, Masataka Yoshida could see plenty of action at DH so prospects like Abreu (and Ceddanne Rafaela below) can get their reps in the outfield. Abreu's started six straight games between center field and left field and hit safely in seven of eight, batting a mere .520 in that stretch with three steals, four runs and five RBI. He doesn't have the prospect pedigree Rafaela does, but he might be the better redraft pickup for the remainder of 2023. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: Rostered

Oswaldo Cabrera, Yankees: Cabrera's quietly moved into a starting role for the Yankees over the last week or so and gone 8-for-22 with a homer and a steal. The 24-year-old is probably a future utility player, but the team will give him a chance to change that perception over that last couple weeks. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Estevan Florial, Yankees: The Jasson Dominguez injury opened up center field for Florial, and he's started six straight games. He's also only hit .182 (4-for-22) without an extra-base hit, but four walks and a steal offer some hope he might provide some value with his legs down the stretch. The 25-year-old's prospect status has long since faded, though, so don't view him as much of a keeper stash. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Aaron Hicks, Orioles: Hicks is hot again and seeing consistent starts again, bouncing around the outfield when someone else needs a break or has a bad matchup. That arrangement has allowed the 33-year-old to slash .395/.500/.526 over 46 plate appearances in September, which is probably better than whatever your fifth outfielder is giving you. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: Rostered

Manuel Margot, Rays: Back off the IL, Margot rapped out three hits and two RBI in his return Friday, and with Jose Siri likely done for the regular season, center field is wide open. Margot can't be counted on for power, but he could supply a steal or two. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Brett Phillips, Angels: Phillips supposedly put on some muscle at Triple-A, and while he only has nine homers on the season in 96 games between the minors and majors, seven of them have come in his last 16 games – four in his last seven games for Salt Lake, and three in nine games with the Halos since his promotion. Hmm. The 29-year-old's defense would make him an everyday-caliber player if he could just supply an adequate level of offense, so if this power display is legit, he suddenly has some deep-league keeper appeal, in addition to being a worthy redraft dart throw. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox: Rafaela's getting regular work in center field while also spelling Trevor Story at shortstop on occasion, and over his last 11 games he's batting .324 (12-for-37) with two solo homers, a steal and eight runs – the latter thanks to semi-consistent looks as the leadoff hitter. The 22-year-old should be a big part of Boston's future, and the team will give him all the playing time he can handle down the stretch. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: Rostered

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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