Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 101-125

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This fifth article will cover my updated 101-125 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. The tier from the third installment that started with Josiah Gray at No. 72 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 72-106.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Daulton Varsho/Francisco Alvarez

One recurring trope in my rankings is that I devalue bat-first catchers. Yes, these are rankings for fantasy and you don't get points for how well your catcher frames pitches or controls the running game, but MLB teams have proven that in the vast majority of cases, they will not give significant at-bats to poor defensive catchers. Varsho is not as bad behind the plate as Francisco Mejia was as a prospect, but he is nowhere near as good as Carson Kelly, and that matters over the next couple seasons. That said, he does bat left-handed (Kelly struggles against righties) and he clearly has top-five upside at the position if he were to receive the playing time of a lead catcher. I will probably end up being too low on him if he maintains catcher eligibility and gets 400-plus plate appearances per season, but I still think it's a mistake to assume those two things will happen, especially early in his career.

If Alvarez did what he did last season as a shortstop or third baseman, he would probably be a top-25 prospect. That's not hyperbole. He was that good in his pro debut. However, he's still a catching prospect who has never played in a full-season league, and that's the least appealing type of high-performance prospect because of how much the rigors of the position slow one's ascent through the minors. For instance, Diego Cartaya checks all the boxes and he's still outside the top 150. I've seen speculation that the Mets could move Alvarez off the position to allow him to stay on the fast track that his bat deserves, but I doubt they will make that move as he shows aptitude behind the plate. If it all comes together, he could be a six-win type of MLB player in his prime years, so I wouldn't give up on that possibility until his defense becomes a big enough question mark. It's possible he is a once in a generation type of catching prospect who just cruises through the minors without any real adversity, and if that happens, this ranking will be way too low.

Pitcher: Shane Baz

As good as Baz looked in brief stints in the AFL, I couldn't help but think how dominant he could be for the Rays in a multi-inning relief role. He has below-average command and doesn't have a quality third pitch, so the reliever risks would be obvious in any organization. Even so, the Rays rotation especially is going to be very difficult to crack in the coming seasons, so I could at least see him beginning his big-league career in the bullpen, even if he meets little resistance in the upper levels of the minors. That said, it's scary to rank a pitcher with good size, a pair of 70-grade pitches and full-season experience outside of the top 100. He could pretty easily improve his command and changeup this year and then lay waste to High-A and Double-A hitters in 2021.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Kameron Misner/Jorge Mateo

Misner's No. 186 ranking on Oct. 1 largely reflects how low I was on him pre-draft, and his No. 76 ranking on Jan. 1 was an overreaction by me to his very impressive pro debut. He was worse in 30 SEC games than he was in 34 Low-A games last year, and neither sample is big enough for me to feel confident in where his true talent level lies. Toolsy guys with questionable hit tools can run into trouble as they move up the ranks, and if Misner's strikeout rate spikes and his AVG drops following an assignment to High-A, it would only be natural for me to assume I was right about being low on him pre-draft. 

Mateo seems just as likely to provide fantasy value in the next MLB season as he does to be booted off Oakland's 40-man roster at some point in the next year. He is out of minor-league options, but with expanded rosters, he is less likely to be designated for assignment in the immediate future. However, if at some point the A's come to the conclusion that he just won't hit enough to play over Tony Kemp or Franklin Barreto — remember, he was slightly below league average in a return to the PCL last year — then they will have to make a tough decision. His speed and proximity warrant him being ranked somewhere in the top 200 or so, but his hit tool and roster status offer plenty of avenues for his stock to plummet.

Pitcher: Luis Medina/Brent Honeywell/Daulton Jefferies

Medina has completely fallen off the top-400 twice in the past two calendar years, so that illustrates how volatile he can be. He was excellent last season over his final 13 starts, and those starts are the reason he is ranked at all. Prior to that, he had flashed frontline stuff but his command was so bad that it didn't really matter. If he reverts back to his old self, he will tumble down the rankings, as he is already on the 40-man roster, so the Yankees can't give him unlimited time to develop as a starter. That said, his upside is such that I think he needs to be ranked somewhat aggressively in case he actually did figure something out down the stretch, but it's undeniable that I'm relying on a fairly small sample to justify this ranking.

One good rule of thumb with pitchers in redraft or dynasty is that you will rarely regret fading injured pitchers. Honeywell has missed two full seasons with Tommy John surgery and a subsequent elbow fracture, and while he was trending in the right direction in spring training, we have no idea how his elbow will respond as he eventually ramps up to a starter's workload. Another arm-related setback would really hurt his stock. Jefferies also missed close to two full seasons while taking longer than usual to recover from Tommy John surgery. His stock was trending way up when he suffered a biceps strain in camp, further evidence (applicable to Honeywell) that even when you return from TJS, your arm may not be done barking. I think both pitchers have No. 2/3 starter upside, and I have to rank them somewhere, but they are both pretty scary from a health standpoint.

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.