Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 51-75

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This third article will cover my updated 51-75 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. Last week's tier that started with Riley Greene at No. 38 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 38-71.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the player(s) who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Hunter Bishop/Oneil Cruz

Bishop has a chance to develop 70-grade power with 60-grade speed. That's top-five prospect material if it comes with even an above-average hit tool. However, Bishop isn't even a lock to have a fringe-average hit tool, which makes him a bit of a nightmare from a ranking perspective. With hit tool outcomes ranging from 35 to 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale, Bishop has a chance to be a superstar, especially when factoring in his OBP potential, and it's also possible he never makes it as a big-league regular. We still have very little data on Bishop against age-appropriate pro pitching to work with, so he's one of those guys who is a good six weeks away from jumping 30 spots and a bad six weeks away from falling outside the top 100. Due to his ceiling, I'm not worried about having him too high, but I loved him pre-draft and could end up kicking myself for not being a bit more bullish with my preseason ranking of him.

Cruz qualifies here for many of the same reasons. He has a chance to develop 80-grade power with enough speed to steal 10-15 bases. It's not impossible that he could someday come close to replicating Aaron Judge's 2017 season (with fewer RBI+R). I bring up Judge because he is not only a good exit velocity comp, but he is a good height comp for the 6-foot-7 Cruz. I have so much trepidation when it comes to ranking super-tall hitters too highly. Intuitively, and as someone who really values a good hit tool, I would rather have a 5-foot-9 hitter than a 6-foot-7 hitter, if the only information I had was height. So far, Cruz has done as well as anyone could have hoped, given age and level. However, we still have a very limited sample of him facing upper-level pitching. If his height is going to lead to debilitating contact issues, those issues would probably arise at Triple-A and/or in the majors, so the jury is still out on the utility of Cruz's hit tool. I was never high enough on Judge as a prospect, and if Cruz comes close to reaching his ceiling, I will have failed in my ranking of him as well. Basically, I think it is justifiable to have him ranked anywhere from 20-120, and I had to settle on putting him somewhere, and this spot felt right.

Pitcher: Edward Cabrera/Grayson Rodriguez

I will write up these two high-octane arms together, since they are ranked back-to-back, have the same strengths and are outside the top 50 for some of the same reasons. Both guys have at least 70-grade fastballs and at least two offspeed pitches with plus potential. That's a borderline ace starter kit if it also comes with good command, which both Cabrera and Rodriguez have demonstrated so far. The reason they are not up with guys like Casey Mize and Clarke Schmidt is that they are not quite as accomplished from a pitchability standpoint, and they are a little further away from the big leagues. Proximity really matters with pitching prospects. If they need Tommy John surgery in the minors, that immediately tacks two years onto their ETA, plus we learn a lot about how well their stuff plays in the upper levels. If both guys stay relatively healthy over the next 18 months, then having them outside the top 50 will look silly. I could pretty easily make a case for having either guy ahead of Luis Patino or Jose Urquidy, and indeed, they are in the same tier as those two.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Nick Madrigal

Sometimes drafting season ends up informing my opinions on big-league ready prospects because I'm doing upwards of a dozen drafts, and inevitably I have the opportunity to end up with whichever prospects I want (no prospects go in the first couple rounds in redraft formats). This is an instance where I just came to the conclusion that I was dead wrong about having a guy as high as I did (top 25 at one point). I firmly believe Madrigal has the upside to hit .315 with 90-plus runs and 20-plus steals. Yet, I continuously passed him over in redraft leagues because I didn't want to pay for that ceiling when I also knew he would be a massive negative in HR+RBI. Let's say Madrigal's bat-to-ball skill only translates to a .285-.290 average against big-league defenders, who are better at turning groundballs into outs. Would the White Sox bat him leadoff or would they bat him eighth or ninth? If he goes from being a massive positive in three categories to being just a solid positive in two categories (AVG, SB), then he's putting you behind in three of the five roto categories (HR, RBI and R). Put another way, is there really any way you'd be kicking yourself for passing on Madrigal in a redraft league or trading him away in a dynasty league? I think you could end up regretting it, depending on who you ended up with instead, but you'd get over it.

Pitcher: Brendan McKay

We often see left-handed starters who know how to pitch but lack elite stuff put up monster numbers in the minors and fail to translate that success to the majors, where the margin for error is razor thin. One could argue that McKay doesn't have a single plus pitch (his fastball and cutter are borderline), so he really needs to excel at executing and sequencing his pitches. Thankfully, he could end up with plus or better command, but if he only has 50- or 55-grade command, that may not be good enough for him to make it as a No. 3 starter. I'm already kind of out on a limb by having him as low as I do, given his pedigree and proximity to the majors, but if he struggles in his next string of MLB starts, his dynasty value is really going to crater, and I think that's a legitimate possibility. Given that he has a quantity over quality repertoire, I'd feel comfortable cashing him out now in dynasty leagues, as he lacks the ceiling to really come back to haunt you.

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.