Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 26-50

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This second article will cover my updated 26-50 prospects. I will continue this series,  working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. Jeter Downs, who was ranked No. 25 in last week's installation is a part of the tier that runs from prospects 25-37.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the player(s) who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Alec Bohm/Cristian Pache

There are going to be guys I'm very confident in my evaluation on, and there are others where I just can't get a good feel for what they will become. Bohm falls into the latter group. His ability to make contact for a player his size is really impressive. The only times he has hit for power and average at the same time was when he was a 22-year-old at High-A and when he was a 23-year-old in the hitter-friendly AFL. His splits away from the hitter-friendly park at Double-A Reading (.727 OPS) are something that I'm treating as a bit of a red flag, but it was a small sample and the fact he was good in the AFL has to be factored in. While his AFL numbers were awesome, his batting practice sessions were good, not great, for a player whose stature would lead one to expect big raw power. Typically I gravitate towards players with Bohm's control of the strike zone, but something about his profile just leaves me wanting a little more. Maybe it's his poor defense or the fact I was lower on him prior to the draft, but I just can't get on board with him being up in that elite group of hitting prospects from last week's article. 

Pache looks like a big leaguer and I expect him to have a very long, successful career, thanks in large part to his elite outfield defense. Like Bohm, Pache has been a tough guy for me to peg. If he stole 20-plus bases per season with at least a 70 percent success rate, he would make much more sense and would be ranked higher. However, in 272 games over the last two seasons, he has stolen 18 bases and has been caught 19 times. Can we even count on 10 steals from him in a full MLB season? With that uncertainty, batting average, OBP (for lineup placement) and power are more important aspects of his profile. I can't help but think he's basically Byron Buxton with 30-50 percent of Buxton's stolen-base upside and a much better track record of health. That's not an exciting player in fantasy, but I shouldn't pigeonhole a 21-year-old who is knocking on the door of the majors and will get an everyday job via his glove alone. He has undeniably made strides as a power hitter and he improved his contact rate at Triple-A, so the paint could be far from dry on his development, which is what makes me uneasy about being too low on him.

Pitcher: Nate Pearson

I love Pearson's workhorse frame, his 80-grade fastball, his plus slider and his solid command/control for a pitcher his size. I also love it when a pitching prospect has three or more plus or better offerings. That's what is required to be an ace. I don't even think the people highest on Pearson would claim he has three plus pitches yet, but I could buy the argument that his changeup will eventually play up as a plus pitch due to hitters having to worry about the fastball. The Blue Jays have babied him with conservative workloads because they are rightfully terrified of his arm blowing out. It would be easier to name the recent pitchers who throw as hard or close to as hard as Pearson who haven't had Tommy John surgery than the reverse exercise. It would also be easier to name the team contexts (park, league, division, defense) that are worse than Toronto's for a starting pitching prospect -- probably only Colorado and Baltimore. Now, if Pearson stays relatively healthy over the next few years, my current ranking of him will look bad, and this puts me in the weird/unenviable position of needing a player to get injured for me to be right about where I have him ranked. I would rather be wrong than for Pearson to get hurt, but it's my job to rank guys based on how much I would want them in a dynasty league, and that's what I have done with Pearson.

Might Be Too High

These are the guys whose ranking requires the most fortitude on my part.

Hitter: Tyler Freeman

Freeman and I will be forever linked, for better or worse, because I'm really out on an island with him as a clear-cut top-50 prospect. I am confident in my evaluation of him, but it's not like the people who rank prospects and are much lower on him are dumb (for the most part). When you are at odds with smart people about something, it's human nature for there to be some trepidation. I've seen Freeman lumped in with slap hitters like Nick Madrigal or Brice Turang because he has not hit for much over-the-fence power. I've even seen people say he's basically the same guy as fellow Indians middle-infield prospect, Brayan Rocchio. In my opinion, Rocchio's best-case scenario is to be where Freeman is in a couple years, but I digress. Yes, Freeman has one of the best hit tools and contact rates in the minors, but he doesn't just dump singles into the opposite field. He has never posted a line drive rate below 22 percent as a pro and has never had a line drive rate below 24 percent above rookie ball. He evenly distributes his lasers to all fields. Also, while Pache's speed plays down on the bases, Freeman's speed plays up as he's stolen 33 bases on 41 attempts in 195 games over the past two seasons. People often say power is the last tool to show up, and I think it's our job as prospect rankers to predict which players that really applies to. Freeman is the prototypical minor-league hitter to hit for more power than people expect, because he can already do literally everything else at the plate and has not yet turned 21. So here is the comp that ties everything together: I think Freeman will have a Dustin Pedroia type of fantasy profile, mirroring Pedroia's early years and prime years, hopefully with a lengthier career. Now, there is a world where Freeman is only ever a doubles hitter who slows down to the point that he can only steal 10-12 bases and proves he can't handle shortstop defensively. In that world, where he would probably fit best as a utility infielder, everyone who ranked him as a borderline top-100 prospect will be able to say, "I told you so." On Twitter, that translates to "I never understood why some people thought Tyler Freeman was a good fantasy prospect." That's my worst-case scenario.

Pitcher: Jose Urquidy

There wasn't a good pitcher for this category this week, as I don't feel any trepidation about being too high on any of the pitchers in the 26-50 range. Even as I move Clarke Schmidt further and further up my rankings, all I worry about with Schmidt is whether I should keep moving him up. That brings us to Urquidy. I haven't taken him in many redraft leagues, simply because I prefer Sandy Alcantara and A.J. Puk, and Alcantara in particular is available one round later in most drafts. That said, I think Urquidy is a top-50 fantasy starter for 2020. If I just told you a pitcher projected to be in the 30-60 range among fantasy starters over the next few seasons, which is how I feel about Urquidy, where would that player belong on a top-400 prospect list? The scouting version: Where should you rank a pitcher with a low-to-mid-90s fastball, one plus offspeed pitch (changeup), four average or better pitches and plus command? He lacks the pedigree, the traditional build for a right-handed starter, or the electric arsenal that I typically associate with pitchers who belong in the top 50, but I still think the answer to both of my questions is that he belongs right in the middle of the top 100. The only thing I worry about with Urquidy (other than the fact he is a pitcher and pitchers get hurt) is that he has less margin for error than a guy like Pearson, so he needs to maintain his command and the velocity he gained over the past 18 months in order for me to be right about him.

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.