This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the Australian Open commences Friday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Thursday night in the United States. A pair of former quarterfinalists in the women's draw here are looking to knock off slightly higher-ranked opponents, while two men ranked just outside the top 20 will try to continue their ascents into the tier of contenders at big tournaments.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+160) vs. Jakub Mensik
Both of these players are coming off wins over seeded opponents, but while the volatile Davidovich Fokina has proven capable stringing together multiple high-quality matches when he's on his game, the 19-year-old Mensik's at risk of a letdown after notching the biggest win of his career over No. 6 seed Casper Ruud. Just one day after fellow talented teenager Joao Fonseca stumbled in his next match after knocking out No. 9 seed Andrey Rublev, Mensik will be feeling the pressure of trying to back up his signature win while attempting to reach the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam for the first time. Davidovich Fokina has made a few deep runs at big tournaments before, reaching the quarterfinals of the French Open in 2021 and the final of the Monte Carlo Masters 1000 in 2022 while showcasing his hard-court ability with a semifinal showing at the Canadian Open Masters 1000 in 2023. Mensik currently has an 18-spot edge in the rankings as he sits at a career-high No. 48, but Davidovich Fokina has been ranked as high as No. 21, which the Spaniard achieved on the heels of his Canadian Open run.
Marta Kostyuk (+195) vs. Paula Badosa
Kostyuk has perennially been a tough out at the Australian Open, as the 22-year-old Ukrainian is into the third round here for the fifth time in six appearances and reached the quarterfinals last year. Badosa has a six-spot edge in the rankings at No. 12, but the Spaniard has found more Grand Slam success on surfaces other than hard courts, with a 21-9 career record at the French Open and Wimbledon but just a 14-10 mark at the Australian and U.S. Open. At this venue, this matchup looks like a pure tossup, and while Badosa leads their head-to-head 3-1, Kostyuk won their most recent encounter at Wimbledon in 2023.
Honorable Mention
Olga Danilovic (+425) vs. Jessica Pegula
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Jiri Lehecka (-330) vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Lehecka would likely be a top-15 player already if not for a multi-month layoff due to a back injury that kept him from playing the French Open and Wimbledon last year. As things are, the big-hitting Czech is knocking on the door of the top 20, and the No. 24 seed is off to a 7-0 start in 2025, including two top-15 wins en route to the title in Adelaide. Bonzi has capitalized on a favorable draw here, beating two players ranked outside the top 50 to reach a Grand Slam third round for the third time in his career, but the 64th-ranked Frenchman has never been past this stage of a major at age 28.
Novak Djokovic (-425) vs. Tomas Machac
Djokovic has looked a little vulnerable in this tournament, dropping a set apiece to a pair of unheralded opponents in the first two rounds, but that has hardly been unusual for the 24-time Grand Slam champion in the last couple years. He usually ups his game as majors progress, and while Djokovic suffered a shocking third-round loss against Alexei Popyrin in the third round of the U.S. Open last year, that marked the only time the Serbian legend failed to reach the Round of 16 at a Grand Slam since the 2017 Australian Open. Machac will have some belief stemming from a victory over Djokovic on clay in Geneva last year and pushing Djokovic to a third set tiebreak in Dubai in 2023, but beating Djokovic in best-of-five sets is a far taller order that the 25th-ranked Czech is unlikely to accomplish, especially at an event that Djokovic has won a record 10 times. Father Time will catch up to Djokovic eventually, but he should still have enough in the tank to beat an opponent that has yet to reach a Grand Slam quarterfinal in his career.
Honorable Mention
Coco Gauff (-600) vs. Leylah Fernandez
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Arthur Fils (+125) vs. Ugo Humbert
Fils is a nice value as the underdog in this clash between seeded Frenchmen. Humbert's edge in experience helped the 14th-ranked Frenchman win the first three encounters between these compatriots, but Fils turned the tables in their last matchup, which came in the final of a hard-court event in Tokyo in October. The 20-year-old Fils is six years younger and ranked seven spots back of Humbert, but Fils is already on the verge of realizing his higher ceiling, while Humbert has been a perennial underachiever at Grand Slams. Humbert has made it past the third round only twice in 24 previous Grand Slam main draw appearances, reaching the Round of 16 twice at Wimbledon, so Fils would equal Humbert's career total of fourth-round showings at majors if the younger Frenchman triumphs in this match.
Donna Vekic (+140) vs. Diana Shnaider
Both of these women played the best tennis of their careers in the second half of 2024, as Vekic reached the semifinals at Wimbledon and claimed a silver medal at the Olympics, while Shnaider rocketed up the rankings to a career-high of No. 12. The 20-year-old Russian has since slipped one spot but is still ranked six spots ahead of Vekic. Shnaider has yet to really break through at a Grand Slam, though, as she's just 9-6 in her career at majors, with a Round of 16 showing at the most recent U.S. Open representing her best result to date. The veteran Vekic has a significant edge in big-match experience, and she has played some of her best tennis at the biggest tournaments, including a run to the quarterfinals of the 2023 Australian Open. While Shnaider's ceiling is higher long term, Vekic could still have the short-term edge between these two big hitters.
Honorable Mention
Naomi Osaka (-150) vs. Belinda Bencic
