This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Advancing in the EFL Cup and getting to the Club World Cup are kind of punishments… to an extent. Both Cup matches Tuesday between Premier league sides were played fairly close to the chest as neither game totaled more than 20 shots. On Wednesday, it didn't seem like West Ham wanted to play as they were thrashed by Liverpool.
Playing in Saudi Arabia for a chance at another trophy is fun for Man City, but putting minutes on regular starters in the middle of holiday season can't be helpful.
Betting over the next two weeks has to take into account injuries, suspensions and depth of squads, something I always have in the back of my mind.
Record: 31-36-1. Down $252 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen bet on arguably the three biggest matches of Gameweek 18.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton & Hove Albion at Crystal Palace
SGP: Crystal Palace double chance + Brighton over 1.5 corners 2H = +110
Premier League single-game parlays can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
It's a Thursday start in a standalone spot for two teams battling constant injuries. While Palace have been gutted in their midfield, Brighton lost another defender this past week with Joel Veltman out up to a month. Eberechi Eze has a slight chance to start, though I'm comfortable backing the home team either way.
Brighton haven't been at their best in maybe two months. Their offseason departures combined with a bevy of injuries has resulted in a lot of down performances. I tried a few ways to get Palace double chance and landed on a single-game parlay that involves corners. This isn't the Brighton of last season when they would dominate possession and rack up opportunities. I think Palace prove to be a nuisance, especially whenever Eze and Michael Olise are on the pitch at the same time.
Assuming it's level or Palace are up a goal in the second half, Brighton will push and that leads to corners, which is the second part of this bet.
EPL Best Bets for Burnley at Fulham
SGP: Fulham to beat Burnley + Fulham over 1.5 goals = -110
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I may be forcing single-game parlays into this article, but I'm never going to write up a -145 bet (Fulham moneyline). Instead, I'll put moneyline together with over 1.5 goals and take closer to even odds.
I've been waiting for Burnley to turn a corner, but I'm not sure it's coming before 2024, as there aren't a ton of changes Vincent Kompany can do with his lineup. Meanwhile, Fulham are on somewhat of a high if you ignore the Raul Jimenez red card last weekend. They advanced to the EFL Cup semi-finals midweek and have won each of their last three home matches, totaling 13 goals.
Craven Cottage has been a fortress of late and I think they could grab two or three goals against this back line. The addition of Alex Iwobi and Tom Cairney into the lineup is what the team needed earlier in the season when they were struggling for an identity.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at West Ham United
Under 2.5 goals between West Ham United and Manchester United +120
This feels almost like a perfect matchup for West Ham. They don't like to keep possession and often play heavy on the counter. Manchester United are one of the teams that seemingly doesn't know what to do with a ton of possession and their back line has been prone to a ton of mistakes.
Betting West Ham to win isn't usually high on my list of plays and I'm going to pass on that here even if I like it. Because of the way they play, they're always in range of losing to anyone who can convert chances.
Seen in the match against Liverpool, Manchester United are playing a little safer away from home, as Erik ten Hag doesn't want them exposed in the back, something that has burned them a few times this season. So if they play safe against a team that thrives off counters, that means fewer goals, right?
Hopefully. I can see it going off the rails like a lot of West Ham games this season, but I can also see two teams struggling to do anything of significance.
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EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Luton Town
Luton Town double chance against Newcastle +120
Tom Lockyer is probably Luton Town's best defender and maybe most valuable player. Without him, it's a little harder to bet the match immediately following his recent health scare. Still, playing at home, it feels like a game where everyone in the stadium will be thinking of Lockyer and I think that benefits Luton, who have already been a much better team at home.
Newcastle have played much different away from home of late, as their lack of bodies has resulted in new injuries and tired legs. They got an early goal at Chelsea on Tuesday and couldn't hold on. Prior, they'd lost to Tottenham, Everton and Bournemouth.
While under 2.5 goals at +105 was my initial look, I think riding Luton Town at Kenilworth Road is worth it and taking them to get at least a point. More than anything, this is a bet on Lockyer.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 18
- SGP: Crystal Palace double chance + Brighton over 1.5 corners 2H = +110
- SGP: Fulham to beat Burnley + Fulham over 1.5 goals = -110
- Under 2.5 goals between West Ham and Manchester United +120
- Luton Town double chance against Newcastle +120
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
