This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Brighton look for their first Premier League win since November when they travel to Portman Road to take on Ipswich Town on Thursday.
Ipswich have gotten some positive results recently to give them a shot at getting out of the relegation fight. The Tractor Boys are sitting in 18th place but are tied on points with Wolverhampton (prior to Wednesday's result). They held Brighton scoreless in the previous meeting and they'll try to do the same at home.
Brighton are in a bit of a rut at the moment. They've drawn four straight Premier League matches and have fallen into the bottom half of the table. Manager Fabian Hurzeler needs to figure how to get Brighton back on the right track quickly or the season will slip away from them.
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Premier League Best Bets for Ipswich Town vs. Brighton
Betting on Player Shots
Brighton are going to take a ton of shots in this match and the guy who has been getting most of those shots is the one playing the No. 10 role in their 4-2-3-1.
Whether it's Matt O'Riley or Julio Enciso, that player has taken shots in chunks. On the season, O'Riley is averaging over three shots per 90 minutes and with Ipswich sitting deep, passes back across the top of the 18-yard box are going to be there for O'Riley to fire off.
I like the value on him over 1.5 shots at +100.
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Betting on Team Total Shots
Similar to the above prop, it's hard to get away from Brighton taking a bunch of shots in this match. Most of the time, they're not of the highest quality since teams tend to sit deep against them.
The Seagulls have a lot of talented individual players and they utilize that with a lot of shots in and around the 18-yard box. Ipswich are going to sit deep and invite them into taking those types of shots, just like they did in the previous meeting when they held them scoreless despite giving up 21 shots.
I like the value on Brighton's shot total over 15.5 at -138 odds.
Betting on Total Goals
The previous meeting ended 0-0 and I think this one has a shot to do the same because of how that match played out. Brighton have struggled to break down low blocks the past couple seasons and the main reason for that is they take a lot of low quality chances.
Only Manchester City have taken more shots from outside the box than Brighton and the Seagulls have one of the lowest xG per shot mark in the Premier League.
In the previous meeting, Ipswich sat in a low, compact defensive block and Brighton proceeded to fire off 21 shots and only created 1.66 expected goals. Ipswich did nothing themselves, creating only 0.35 expected goals for the match.
I think this match ending 0-0 at +1200 is in play.
Ipswich Town vs. Brighton Betting Picks
- Matt O'Riley Over 1.5 shots (+100)
- Brighton Team Shots Total Over 15.5 (-138)
- Correct Score: 0-0 (+1200)
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