This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The Premier League continues midweek with four matches Tuesday. Some teams rotated their entire squads like Chelsea in the FA Cup, but a lot of them also played a bunch of regulars because they don't have Chelsea-like benches. Will that give a leg up to teams like Chelsea and Liverpool after rotating? Don't bet on it.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches.
Record: 30-32. Down $54 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester City at Brentford
Brentford to score first +155
Premier League game props can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
Brentford double chance was my initial view at +125, but I'm not overly confident in their back line unless Thomas Frank opts for a formation change, which is always possible. Brentford were already bad defensively and then both Ethan Pinnock and Kristoffer Ajer got injured.
Instead of relying on a nervy back line, Brentford early goals have been a constant this season. Whether off the counter or from a set play, they've caught numerous teams off guard early in matches, including when these teams met earlier in the season and Yoane Wissa bagged one in the first minute.
Brentford also scored first in their last two home matches against Man City. Despite a few wins, I'm not sold on City being back to their normal selves. Beating West Ham, who fired Julen Lopetegui after the match, and Leicester City doesn't mean much.
At +155, I think the odds are great for Brentford to get the first goal.
EPL Best Bets for AFC Bournemouth at Chelsea
SGP: Under 3.5 goals between Chelsea and Bournemouth + Chelsea over 4.5 corners +120
Premier League SGP bets are available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
I like Bournemouth double chance at +140, but down a few attacking players and having already lost 1-0 in the reverse fixture, I'm opting for something else. This still figures to be a low scoring match, at least in my eyes.
Chelsea have blown past lower-level competition, but the goals haven't been there against viable Premier League clubs. They've scored just two goals in their last four league games, including being held scoreless by Everton and Ipswich Town.
Bournemouth have been quietly good defensively with the fifth-best expected goals allowed in the league. Despite multiple injuries in the back, the consistency of their midfield between Lewis Cook and Ryan Christie has kept them resilient all season.
Since under 3.5 goals by itself is -140, I'm putting it with Chelsea over 4.5 corners to get +120 odds.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Nottingham Forest
'No' on both teams to score between Forest and Liverpool +125
Nottingham Forest are on a tear, winning their last seven in all competitions, catapulting to third in the table, level with Arsenal. That's still insane to say, but when you take care of all the mediocre and bad teams in the league, that usually means you'll be near the top of the table.
Their brand of football has worked to fruition, limiting opponents to minimal good chances every match while taking their own chances with elite efficiency. However, against top teams, that strategy hasn't worked as well as early in the season, like in the first Liverpool match.
Forest had 1.04 xG and 12 shots at Manchester City and .33 xG on seven shots against Arsenal, both 3-0 losses. In a 3-1 home loss to Newcastle, they had .63 xG on nine shots. Even in positive results, they had .87 xG from 16 shots at Chelsea and .44 xG and five shots in the 1-0 win at Liverpool.
Liverpool are aware of this (I hope) and they'll be hyper-aware of allowing another goal on the counter. I like under 2.5 goals at +125 odds, but I think both sides are in play to win to nil, so 'no' on both teams to score is the play. I was also killed on under 2.5 goals in Forest's last game and that's fresh in my mind.
If you're looking for some boosts and can't decide which one, check out RotoWire's sportsbook promo codes.
EPL Betting Picks Tuesday, January 14
- Brentford to score first +155
- SGP: Under 3.5 goals for Chelsea and Bournemouth + Chelsea over 4.5 corners +120
- 'No' on both teams to score between Forest and Liverpool +125
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
