This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC is in Perth, Australia for a solid UFC 305 card that sees the Dricus Du Plessis looking to defend his middleweight title in the main event against Israel Adesanya.
Below, I'll share my UFC 305 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC 305 odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Steve Erceg (12-2) vs. Kai Kara-France (24-11)
The co-main event of UFC 305 is an intriguing flyweight bout, and I'm backing Steve Erceg to get his hand raised against Kai Kara-France.
Erceg is coming off a very competitive loss to Alexandre Pantoja for the flyweight title and now gets to fight in his hometown. Kara-France, meanwhile, has suffered back-to-back losses, and to me, is more of a gatekeeper to the top-five than a true title contender.
Erceg is a solid striker, but he will have a big advantage on the ground in this matchup. Erceg should be able to have success with his wrestling and controlling Kara-France, but even if he doesn't get the takedowns, I think he can be the more active striker to get a decision.
Ultimately, Erceg should be able to get a couple of takedowns to control the fight and edge out a decision.
UFC 305 Best Bet: Steve Erceg (-162)
Looking for a new online sportsbook to sign up for? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a guide of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
More UFC 305 picks can be found below...
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Casey O'Neill (9-2) vs. Luana Santos (8-1)
Casey O'Neill was once a top prospect, but after back-to-back losses, she could be fighting for her job at UFC 305, and is the underdog here.
However, I do like O'Neill in this spot. She recently made a change in her training camp to go to Fight Ready, which is a move I like for her.
Santos, meanwhile, is taking this fight on short notice, so I have some concerns about her cardio.
If Santos can get O'Neill down, it could be a long night for her. However, I like that O'Neill took a ton of time off since her loss in December to change camps and truly get healthy again. I think O'Neill will be able to keep it standing, and given she is the better striker and throws more volume, the path is laid out for her to win a decision.
UFC 305 Best Bet: Casey O'Neill (+130)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (24-2) vs. Dan Hooker (23-12)
On the main card, we have a lightweight bout between Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker.
Gamrot is a sizable -340 favorite, but I like him to win a decision, which is only -130. Hooker is the better striker, but Gamrot still can hang on the feet. In terms of wrestling and grappling, he has a massive upside.
Hooker is pretty durable, while Gamrot isn't a known finisher. So, I like Gamrot to be able to take Hooker down and control him on the ground and grind out a decision.
UFC 305 Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot by decision (-130 on FanDuel)
Weight Classes: Flyweight & Welterweight
Stewart Nicoll (8-0) vs. Jesus Aguilar (10-2)
Carlos Prates (19-6) vs. Li Jingliang (19-8)
For my parlay at UFC 305, I'm taking Stewart Nicoll and Carlos Prates to get their hands raised.
Nicoll is making his UFC debut and gets to fight in his home country, and I like him to get the win. Nicoll looks like the real deal, as the flyweight is a pure finisher. Aguilar, meanwhile, is coming off a controversial decision win last time out, in a fight he got controlled in. Nicoll should be able to follow a similar game plan to Mendonca and Taiara. He'll be able to control Aguilar on the ground to either get a submission win or a clear-cut decision.
Prates, meanwhile, gets a step up to face Jingliang, and this is a good spot to take the Brazilian. Jingliang is 36 and hasn't fought since September of 2022, so the layoff and age are concerns. Prates, meanwhile, is a very powerful striker who should have a speed advantage over Jingliang.
Although JIngliang has shown a good chin, he is facing a pure KO artist, and this is a spot I think Prates can get a TKO win due to the amount of volume and damage.
UFC 305 Best Bet: Stewart Nicoll and Carlos Prates parlay (-119)
UFC 305 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 305 picks:
- Steve Erceg (-162)
- Casey O'Neill (+130)
- Mateusz Gamrot by decision (-130)
- Stewart Nicoll & Carlos Prates parlay (-119)
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
