This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 73 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Takashi Sato (16-6-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (10-4-0)
Takashi Sato - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Themba Gorimbo - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 7" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This lines up as a striker vs. grappler match, with Sato being the striker and Gorimbo being the grappler. Gorimbo only has one fight in the UFC but did not showcase anything impressive. Sato has had multiple fights in the UFC and is currently riding a three-fight losing streak against solid competition. The fight is a toss-up, but I will ride with the dog. If Sato can stuff takedowns, I think he will record a knockout.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Sato
Victoria Leonardo (9-4-0) v. Natalia Silva (14-5-1)
Victoria Leonardo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Natalia Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva should be better everywhere and control where the fight goes. I expect her to rag-doll Leonardo for 15 minutes if she does not find an early finish.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Silva
Chase Hooper (11-3-1) v. Nick Fiore (6-1-0)
Chase Hooper - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Nick Fiore - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to primarily play out on the mat, as both guys love to grapple. They are low-level fighters, but Hooper has faced far better competition and should have the edge everywhere.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Hooper
Ilir Latifi (16-8-0) v. Rodrigo Nascimento (9-1-0)
Ilir Latifi - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Rodrigo Nascimento - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless Latifi lands something flush, I expect Nascimento to have his way with him on the mat. Nascimento should be the one pushing the pace and shooting for takedowns. Once on the mat, it is only a matter of time for him to find a submission or ground-and-pound.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Nascimento
Orion Cosce (8-1-0) v. Gilbert Urbina (6-2-0)
Orion Cosce - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Gilbert Urbina - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Another pair of guys looking to make a splash in the UFC. I expect most of the fight to take place on the feet, with a takedown mixed in here and there. The fight should remain close, with Cosce more likely to record a finish and Urbina more likely to earn a decision. Urbina has a size advantage and should be able to avoid the power of Cosce with a smart game plan.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Urbina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (14-7-0) v. Vanessa Demopoulos (9-4-0)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 14 wins
Vanessa Demopoulos - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 59" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Kowalkiewicz and Demopoulos have similar fight styles, but this fight should come down to the reach advantage of Kowalkiewicz and her experience. Demopoulos has been on an excellent run, winning three in a row, but I believe it comes to an end in this one. Kowalkiewicz is the better striker and can match Demopoulos in wrestling.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Kowalkiewicz
Hayisaer Maheshate (9-2-0) v. Slava Borshchev (6-3-0)
Hayisaer Maheshate - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Slava Borshchev - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Someone is likely getting knocked out in this fight. Both guys have struggled with wrestling/takedown defense in their recent losses and will happily welcome a striking match. This comes down to who lands something flush first and is likely a must-play for DFS. Maheshate has the cleaner striking and is my pick to win.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Maheshate
Michael Johnson (21-18-0) v. Diego Ferreira (17-5-0)
Michael Johnson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 21 wins
Diego Ferreira - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a 15-minute striking affair unless Ferreira finds an early finish. Ferreira should have a slight edge on the feet and a considerable edge on the mat. Johnson has more UFC fights, but the experience does not seem impactful. Ferreira should be able to end his three-fight losing streak in this one.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Ferreira
Andre Fialho (16-6-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (15-6-0)
Andre Fialho - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Miniml wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters are coming in on two-fight losing steaks and will be eager to return to the win column. This should be 15 minutes of striking unless someone finds a knockout. Buckley throws more volume, has the better striking defense, and should win this fight.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Buckley
Emily Ducote (12-7-0) v. Lupita Godinez (9-3-0)
Emily Ducote - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Ducote will have a significant edge on the feet with volume and power, while Loopy will have a considerable edge on the mat. If Loopy can successfully mix in takedowns, she should be able to keep Ducote controlled on the mat while mixing in submission attempts. Ducote will need to strike from a distance, which would result in a low score for DFS. Loopy is the play.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Godinez
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-3-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (10-2-0)
Edmen Shahbazyan - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
Anthony Hernandez - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: While both fighters have similar styles, Hernandez is better everywhere and more likely to push a fast pace with high pressure. However, they are both dangerous and could end the fight at any time on the feet or mat. Hernandez is the fighter with the better track record and is the play, but an early finish by Shahbazyan would yield a score that crushes value.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Hernandez
Mackenzie Dern (12-3-0) v. Angela Hill (15-12-0)
Mackenzie Dern - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Angela Hill - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a fun main event. Both ladies have a path to victory. Dern is an elite grappler and will look to do that for five rounds or until she finds a submission. Hill is a high-volume striker and has the opportunity to piece Dern up for five rounds. Whoever can implement their game plan better is going to smash value.
UFC Vegas 73 Pick: Dern
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 73 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
