This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.
Around the RinkAs Chris noted yesterday, the Toronto Maple Leafs fired head coach Randy Carlyle in a situation that has made most fans go Why didn't they just do that over the summer instead of throwing this season away? The writing was on the wall with the change in management and the firing of Carlyle's assistant coaches over the summer.
The fantasy relevant question here is: How does the coaching change effect the top fantasy performers on the Leafs?
It's hard to say that this definitely ups Phil Kessel's value or that it is going to lower the value of James Reimer or what kind of impact it has on the many Leafs players who are owned in a majority of fantasy leagues. What we can do is take a look at a couple of teams that have recently undergone coaching changes mid-season and see how their player production changed following the change behind the bench.
What we're going to look at is player production per 60 minutes. This is because raw totals are going to be slanted. If we just look at goals, it's not necessarily giving a fair view of how production changes. If we look at goals per game or assists per game, our overall impression may be skewed due to a change in minutes for some players because of circumstances and that could skew our overall view of what generally happens to players in this situation. All the stats are also 5-on-5 situations only. That gives us a better picture of how a player is performing, since an increase or decrease in power play time between coaches can have a big impact on those numbers and is largely aside from the question of whether or not the players are playing better.
By look at goals per 60 minutes (G/60), assists per 60 minutes (A/60), points per 60 minutes (P/60), and shots per 60 minutes (S/60) at 5-on-5 we're able to develop a more realistic view of any sort of change in standard play by a player.
In these charts we're just taking a couple of teams who fired coaches around the mid-point of the season. At the top here, you see how the best fantasy players for the Ottawa Senators are doing this year since the firing of Paul MacLean.
So, this is a limited part of a lot of numbers you can dig up on this to find an actual average, but I think for fantasy what's important is not players across the board, but the players who have fantasy relevance since most of us are concerned about what's going to happen this season with Erik Karlsson, but less concerned about how the coaching change effects Curtis Lazar. (At least until next year.)
What you see here, if you can visually group those off by teams, is that there's maybe not a whole lot to be taken simply from a coaching change as an action in a vacuum, but you can see that any change that happens to a team seems to happen to all of the players. Everyone, for the most part, on the 2013-14 Winnipeg Jets exhibited improved numbers after the coaching change, while the 2011-12 Montreal Canadiens had something of the opposite happen with their stars.
That's certainly not law, but if you're carrying Tyler Bozak and feel he's on the cusp, he's around the same level as two or three other guys on waivers, it might be worth keeping an eye on how Kessl, Nazem Kadri, and other top players on the team are trending. It may give you an idea of what you can expect from Bozak going forward.
It's imperfect. There's no way one way that a mid-season coaching change goes for players, but it's worth paying attention to for your team.
* All stats via War on Ice.
Projected Goalie Starters (all times Eastern)
For updates on the projected goalies later in the day, check our Projected Goalies Grid
New Jersey Devils (Cory Schneider) at Boston Bruins (Niklas Svedberg), 7:00 PM
Washington Capitals (Justin Peters) at Philadelphia Flyers (Ray Emery), 7:00 PM
Buffalo Sabres (Jhonas Enroth) at Carolina Hurricanes (Cam Ward), 7:00 PM
San Jose Sharks (Antti Niemi) at St. Louis Blues (Brian Elliott), 8:00 PM
Dallas Stars (Kari Lehtonen) at Nashville Predators (Pekka Rinne), 8:00 PM
Chicago Blackhawks (Corey Crawford) at Minnesota Wild (Darcy Kuemper), 8:00 PM
Ottawa Senators (Craig Anderson) at Colorado Avalanche (Semyon Varlamov), 9:00 PM
Winnipeg Jets (Ondrej Pavelec) at Arizona Coyotes (Devan Dubnyk), 9:00 PM
Florida Panthers (Roberto Luongo) at Vancouver Canucks (Ryan Miller), 10:00 PM
New York Rangers (Cam Talbot) at Los Angeles Kings (Jonathan Quick), 10:30 PM
Injury News For Teams Playing Thursday
New Jersey Devils
Bryce Salvador, D - (lower body) has yet to resume skating.
Scott Clemmensen, G - (illness) has been diagnosed with the mumps.
Ryane Clowe, LW - (head) remains out long-term.
Peter Harrold, D - (face) did not play on Tuesday.
Jacob Josefson, C - (illness) will be available for Thursday's game.
Eric Gelinas, D - (illness) will not travel with the team to Boston.
Stephen Gionta, C - (hand) will likely be sidelined another three-to-five weeks.
Damon Severson, D - (ankle) has been walking around some, but has yet to get back on skates.
Steve Santini, D - (wrist) remains out.
Boston Bruins
Simon Gagne, LW - Gagne is away from the Bruins on a personal leave of absence.
Washington Capitals
John Erskine, D - (neck) is out following surgery.
Matt Niskanen, D - was a game-time decision Wednesday.
Edward Pasquale, G - (hip) is out indefinitely.
Dmitry Orlov, D - (wrist) was cleared to take contact over the weekend.
Aaron Volpatti, LW - (neck) is 100 percent healthy and available to play for the Capitals, but the team has yet to active from their non-roster injury list.
Philadelphia Flyers
Shayne Gostisbehere, D - (knee) remains out.
Steve Mason, G - (soreness) will receive an MRI late on Wednesday.
Buffalo Sabres
Drew Stafford, RW - (personal) was not available for Tuesday's game.
Torrey Mitchell, RW - (foot) is on IR.
Brian Gionta, RW - (head) is considered week-to-week.
Marcus Foligno, LW - (finger) is projected to miss a month or two following surgery.
Carolina Hurricanes
Alexander Semin, LW - (upper body) has been out since December 27 when he attempted to come back after a two week absence.
John-Michael Liles, D - (illness) returned to practice Monday.
Andrej Nestrasil, C - (upper body) returned to practice Saturday.
San Jose Sharks
Tyler Kennedy, LW - (shoulder) has been getting more and more involved at practice, but isn't ready to return.
Joe Thornton, C - (shoulder) skated Tuesday morning but did not play.
Raffi Torres, LW - (knee) coach Todd McLellan said Tuesday that Torres will be out "well into the New Year."
Mike Brown, RW - Brown has a broken right fibula and will miss six-to-eight weeks from the time of the fracture on Dec. 9.
St. Louis Blues
Chris Porter, LW - (lower body) is on IR.
Dallas Stars
Patrick Eaves, RW - (ankle) remains out from an early December injury.
Patrik Nemeth, D - (arm) could miss the rest of the season.
Valeri Nichushkin, LW - (hip) remains out following surgery.
Rich Peverley, C - (chest) remains on long-term IR.
Nashville Predators
Taylor Beck, LW - (illness) resumed skating Tuesday.
James Neal, RW - (lower body) has been out since December 30 and is questionable for Thursday.
Matt Cullen, C - (upper body) was placed on injured reserve last Thursday.
Chicago Blackhawks
Trevor van Riemsdyk, D - (knee) Coach Joel Quenneville said van Riemsdyk is considered ahead of schedule, but won't return Thursday.
Kris Versteeg, RW - (hand) will miss about a month.
Minnesota Wild
Marco Scandella, D - (upper body) will miss Thursday's game.
Nate Prosser, D - (illness) didn't practice Wednesday.
Mikael Granlund, C - (wrist) skated after practice Monday and hopes to return by the end of January.
Darcy Kuemper, G - (undisclosed) left the ice during Wednesday's practice with what coach Mike Yeo described as a "minor injury.
Mikko Koivu, C - (undisclosed) left the ice during Wednesday's practice with what coach Mike Yeo described as a "minor" injury.
Keith Ballard, D - (concussion) may miss the rest of the season.
Zach Parise, LW - (personal) did not play Tuesday or practice Wednesday in order to be with his family.
Josh Harding, G - (illness) remains out and in the AHL.
Ottawa Senators
Marc Methot, D - (back) has returned from a conditioning assignment and is practicing with the team.
Chris Neil, RW - (knee) was on the ice for morning skate Sunday.
Zack Smith, C - (wrist) is likely to be out months with a dislocated wrist.
Mark Borowiecki, D - (leg) is out.
Colorado Avalanche
Ben Street, C - (hand) is on IR.
Patrick Bordeleau, LW - (knee) remains out.
Jamie McGinn, LW - (back) is unlikely to play this season.
Jesse Winchester, LW - (concussion) has resumed skating, but isn't playing yet.
Ryan Wilson, D - (shoulder) is out for the year.
Winnipeg Jets
Mark Stuart, D - (lower body) skated with the team at Tuesday's practice.
Toby Enstrom, D - (lower body) resumed skating Friday.
Zach Bogosian, D - (lower body) could play at some point on the Jets' upcoming three-game road trip.
Grant Clitsome, D - (undisclosed) is considered day-to-day.
Evander Kane, LW - (lower body) said Wednesday that he hopes to be available at some point during the Jets' four-game road trip that begins Thursday.
Jacob Trouba, D - (upper body) remains out.
Arizona Coyotes
Martin Hanzal, C - (upper body) is out Thursday.
Florida Panthers
Shawn Thornton, LW - (groin) has skated, but won't play.
Tomas Kopecky, RW - (upper body) was placed on IR Sunday.
Tomas Fleischmann, LW - (undisclosed) returned to practice Tuesday.
Roberto Luongo, G - (undisclosed) practiced Tuesday.
Erik Gudbranson, D - (upper body) returned to practice Tuesday.
Vancouver Canucks
Dan Hamhuis, D - (leg) isn't expected to return until the second half of January.
Radim Vrbata, RW - (illness) is expected to play Thursday.
Brad Richardson, C - Richardson suffered a lower-body injury in Tuesday's win over the Islanders and didn't play in the third period.
Los Angeles Kings
Robyn Regehr, D - hand) handled pucks at Tuesday's optional skate, but won't play Thursday.
Slava Voynov, D - (suspension) remains out due to domestic violence charges against him.
Hot
Ryan Getzlaf, C, ANA -- Seems a little crazy, but we haven't had Getzlaf on our hot list in The Daily Puck once this year and he's a guy that's getting some attention for the Hart Trophy this season. That'd be his first ever Hart too. It's largely possible because Corey Perry has been out of the lineup a fair amount this year -- between the mumps and an injury -- and Getzlaf has produced even without his long-time linemate. Teams with two superstars -- Crosby & Malkin, Getlaf & Perry, Giroux & Voracek -- are often thought to steal votes from each other in voting, making it a little tough for them to win the Hart. In the last 18 games, Getzlaf has seven goals and 19 assists. He's also a plus-7 with an average of 2.61 shots per game.
Eric Fehr, RW, WSH -- Fehr has been excellent for the Caps lately. He had two goals and an assist in last night's win and has put up six goals, two assists, and a plus-7 rating in his last five games. At 29-years old Fehr is on pace to set a career-high in goals and points. I don't know that this is a run out and get him! situation, as a lot of that production has been a part of some streaky play and he's not playing a ton of minutes. However, if you've already rostered him, there's no reason not to ride this out.
Cold
Mike Smith, G, ARI -- Droppable. Mike Smith is droppable. He's probably gone beyond that at this point to being a must-drop goaltender. With how the Coyotes have played and how he's played, there's little reason to believe that this season will turn around. The only two categories that Smith sits near the top of the league in are losses, his 16 are 2nd among all goaltenders, and goals allowed where his 83 ranks fifth in the league. Smith has been pulled out of games regularly lately. His 1-5 in his last six decisions and hasn't posted a save percentage over .900 in his last seven games. It's time to cut your losses. Michael Hutchinson is looking good. Niklas Svedberg has been strong in limited starts. Whatever is out there is probably a better option.
RJ Umberger, LW, PHI -- The move to The City of Brotherly Love has gone poorly for Umberger so far. He's on pace for 10 goals and eight assists this season, the fewest he'll have posted in either category in any season (with the exception of the lockout-shortened year where he was on pace for more than 10 goals). At 32-years old there's not much reason to believe that he's going to bounce back and be the player we knew him as. While that 17-game goal drought is far in the rearview now, he's only got two goals and an assist in his last eight games and both goals came in the same game. Over that stretch he's also averaging just 1.5 shots per game. Overall on the season he's averaging just 1.2 shots per game, which would be the slowest shooting pace of his career.
Recommended Pickup
Brandon Dubinsky, C, CBJ -- Dubinsky missed a huge part of the season. He didn't play until December 9 and that made many people drop him from their rosters. Dubinsky is available in way too many leagues right now. He's season numbers might be throwing people off, but that's going to end very soon. Over the last five games he has two goals, five assists, a plus-7 rating, and an average of 2.8 shots per game. He's also been up over 20 minutes of ice time in five of his 12 games this season. Dubinsky is pulling in numbers across categories and can produce far better than many of his waiver wire brethren.
