This article is part of our On Target series.
With most of the big money out of the way, it is time to celebrate what is one of my favorite weekends of the year. Week 17 has a great mix of really important games, must-win scenarios, as well as all of our personal favorite bench-warmers getting to play. Joe Webb? Sure! Jeff Janis? Hope so! Akeem Hunt? Come on down! This celebration of the season would not be complete without analyzing some good, bad and interesting WR/CB matchups.
The Good
Julio Jones vs Carolina
Jones has the highest-graded matchup for any wide receiver going this week. It's worth noting that the way PFF does their matchup grading includes WR skill, so a good wide receiver will have a better grade against a mediocre CB than a mediocre WR does against a bad DB. That being said, Jones has a big size advantage on the player expected to shadow him, James Bradberry. Jones had another big game last week but left without scoring a touchdown. I expect that trend to be reversed this week. The Falcons also technically have a shot at the playoffs so they have to win this week, ensuring plenty of playing time for Jones.
Keenan Allen vs Oakland
Allen ended up being atrocious last week due to a bad game script, but in this must-win game for the Chargers, I expect him to have a better showing. Antonio Gates played hero last week but Allen still leads the team in all meaningful
With most of the big money out of the way, it is time to celebrate what is one of my favorite weekends of the year. Week 17 has a great mix of really important games, must-win scenarios, as well as all of our personal favorite bench-warmers getting to play. Joe Webb? Sure! Jeff Janis? Hope so! Akeem Hunt? Come on down! This celebration of the season would not be complete without analyzing some good, bad and interesting WR/CB matchups.
The Good
Julio Jones vs Carolina
Jones has the highest-graded matchup for any wide receiver going this week. It's worth noting that the way PFF does their matchup grading includes WR skill, so a good wide receiver will have a better grade against a mediocre CB than a mediocre WR does against a bad DB. That being said, Jones has a big size advantage on the player expected to shadow him, James Bradberry. Jones had another big game last week but left without scoring a touchdown. I expect that trend to be reversed this week. The Falcons also technically have a shot at the playoffs so they have to win this week, ensuring plenty of playing time for Jones.
Keenan Allen vs Oakland
Allen ended up being atrocious last week due to a bad game script, but in this must-win game for the Chargers, I expect him to have a better showing. Antonio Gates played hero last week but Allen still leads the team in all meaningful advanced metrics. He draws an elite matchup against TJ Carrie. Carrie allows 0.31 fantasy points per route run against and a 71 percent catch rate in coverage. Allen against a high completion-rate corner is a great spot.
T.Y. Hilton vs Houston
Hilton is a really interesting player; I don't think he is particularly technically gifted but he does have something that you can't teach, which is game-breaking speed. He also does move a little bit like an elite PG in terms of quick-twitch lateral agility and that makes him a really difficult matchup for Johnathan Joseph. Joseph's best days are behind him and even at his peak, he would have struggled with a player like Hilton. He is allowing 0.33 fantasy points per route run and his advanced age isn't going to play well against Hilton.
The Bad
Doug Baldwin vs Arizona
When going through the PFF WR/CB matchups this week, I expected to see Patrick Peterson matched up as a shadow on Baldwin but that is not what is presented. However, I am going to make a slight disagreement in that I think if this game is intended to be competitive, Peterson will spend most of his time in coverage on Baldwin and that is not a spot I expect Baldwin to be able to overcome. This should open things up a bit for Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson (who is an unrestricted free agent after this season).
Corey Davis / Rishard Matthews vs Jacksonville
For daily fantasy and the few leagues that have championships in Week 17, it is best to pretend that Davis and Matthews do not exist. However, something that I do want to look for is how Davis does in this adverse situation. I was a giant believer in him coming out of college and, to be honest, he has barely made an impact for a team that was poised to take a leap this year. If he has some decent moments against A.J. Bouye or Jalen Ramsey, I am going to take that as a slight positive indicator for his playing time and stat accumulation next year.
Mike Evans vs New Orleans
Marshon Lattimore's emergence as a shutdown corner has been a giant help for a Saints defense that had been historically bad before this season. While Evans does have amazing physical gifts, he has always struggled against elite CBs which is very unfortunate for him, as he otherwise should be expected to see a volume increase this week. DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin are both banged up (and DJax is being questioned by police for an incident involving his vehicle and some marijuana), so he should see some extra targets this week, but it will be hard to come by extra production against Lattimore.
The Interesting
Michael Clark vs Detroit
This should really be a combination of Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison and Michael Clark but I think that Clark is most likely to fill in the vacated spots of Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams on the outside. Darius Slay has mostly been a shadow corner this year, but it is fair to wonder if in a glorified exhibition game the Lions will even dedicate the energy to deploying him as a shadow against the Packers backups. Clark is a former college basketball player and very athletic; I actually like him as punt in DFS assuming that Slay will not shadow him.
Stefon Diggs vs Chicago
Kyle Fuller was a highly regarded prospect when drafted by the Bears and this year he has fared decently. He has allowed under 0.3 fantasy points per route run against and only a 51 percent completion rate in coverage. However, Diggs has been quite good on the routes where he has been targeted, though he is clearly now behind Adam Thielen in the Vikings pecking order. PFF has these two matched up against each other and I just think that it is going to be a fun competition to watch in a must-win game for the Vikings at home against a division rival.
LA Rams Wide Receivers vs San Francisco
The Rams have already announced the Jared Goff and Todd Gurley will not be starting this gamem so it is fair to wonder what their WR rotation will be like. Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are all likely to get less than their usual snaps. As a result, Tavon Austin, Josh Reynolds and the Southern Miss version of Mike Thomas should all get an increase in snaps. Out of all of them, I think that Austin projects for the most meaningful increase in snaps and touches as this is a chance for him to show the coaching staff he still belongs on the team. All of the 49ers corners have negative grades on PFF, so any Rams WR who sees targets is in a good matchup.
