This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Many fantasy managers prefer to draft other positions when the top quarterbacks are coming off the board. For those who follow that concept, the goal is to find a cheaper option that can put up top-five fantasy numbers. Unless some of the top quarterbacks are injured, like last year, there are usually a limited number of players that possess the ceiling necessary to finish in the elite category. The quarterbacks on this list are usually drafted between QB7 and QB13. That said, these players can often be drafted multiple rounds after the top options have been selected.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Aside from a dismal performance in 2022, Prescott has been right around 4,500 yards and 36 touchdowns in both 2021 and 2023. During the Cowboys' 2023 bye week, it seemed clear the team had no consistent running game. As a result, Dallas went pass heavy. In seven of their last 12 games (including the playoffs), Prescott posted at least 29 fantasy points. With the rushing attack likely a weakness again, expect Dallas to lean on Prescott beginning in Week 1. After what we saw last year, the quarterback could finish in the top three at his position.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
Burrow has yet to have an elite fantasy season. In 2021 and 2022, he averaged 4,533 yards and 34.5 passing touchdowns. The quarterback also averaged 3.5 rushing scores. For Burrow to be a top-five option he'll need a few things to happen. Tee Higgins will need
Many fantasy managers prefer to draft other positions when the top quarterbacks are coming off the board. For those who follow that concept, the goal is to find a cheaper option that can put up top-five fantasy numbers. Unless some of the top quarterbacks are injured, like last year, there are usually a limited number of players that possess the ceiling necessary to finish in the elite category. The quarterbacks on this list are usually drafted between QB7 and QB13. That said, these players can often be drafted multiple rounds after the top options have been selected.
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Aside from a dismal performance in 2022, Prescott has been right around 4,500 yards and 36 touchdowns in both 2021 and 2023. During the Cowboys' 2023 bye week, it seemed clear the team had no consistent running game. As a result, Dallas went pass heavy. In seven of their last 12 games (including the playoffs), Prescott posted at least 29 fantasy points. With the rushing attack likely a weakness again, expect Dallas to lean on Prescott beginning in Week 1. After what we saw last year, the quarterback could finish in the top three at his position.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
Burrow has yet to have an elite fantasy season. In 2021 and 2022, he averaged 4,533 yards and 34.5 passing touchdowns. The quarterback also averaged 3.5 rushing scores. For Burrow to be a top-five option he'll need a few things to happen. Tee Higgins will need to avoid making this season about his lack of a long-term deal. Rookie Jermaine Burton will need to be an immediate factor in the slot. Also, the defense, which took a big step back last year, will need to keep giving up plenty of points to force Cincinnati into shootouts. Finally, a talented but inconsistent offensive line will need to give Burrow enough time to throw against the league's better pass-rush units. If this all works out, don't be surprised to see Burrow throw for 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns.
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals
To consider Murray an injury risk may be unfair. The 2022 ACL injury is the reason he missed six games that season along with nine games in 2023. Before the knee injury, the quarterback had only missed three games in three seasons. In eight games last year, Murray scored between 19.5 and 26 fantasy points in seven out of eight games. During that time, Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson missed games with injuries. With Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson and Trey McBride as the top pass-catchers, the former Oklahoma Sooner should put up strong passing numbers. Over a year removed from his knee injury, Murray could be a threat to rush for 500 yards.
Jordan Love, QB, Packers
Despite a successful 2023 season, Love had stretches of inconsistency. After struggling in Weeks 3-9, the quarterback threw for multiple touchdowns in 10 out of 11 games (including the playoffs) while reaching 250 yards eight times. The Packers' leader ended the regular season with 32 touchdown passes. With another offseason to work with his weapons (which hopefully includes a healthy Christian Watson), Love could be ready to take his game to another level. In addition to being a great passer with a diverse set of weapons, the quarterback also rushed for 247 yards and four scores. The Green Bay offense could be special this year, which could lead Love to a top-five finish.
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
We've never seen Williams on an NFL field, so we have to lean more into narrative than we'd prefer. The rookie could not ask for a better set of pass-catching weapons. In addition to wide receivers DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, Chicago also has tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and running back D'Andre Swift. Although the Bears have a decent running back group, it does not appear to be one that can dominate opponents. As a result, the team may need to use a pass-heavy attack. Also, even though the Bears played well on defense down the stretch last year, they had a favorable schedule. Should the defense play at a below-average level, the Bears could be in more shootouts than they'd prefer. If that happens, Williams could be in line for an excellent fantasy season.
