Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Steelers vs. Vikings

Thursday's matchup features two teams going in the opposite direction. Pittsburgh upset the Ravens last week while Minnesota suffered a disappointing loss to the previously winless Lions. Most had written off the Steelers but now they're back in the playoff picture at 6-5-1. The Vikings have performed better than their 5-7 record and still have playoff aspirations as they're only one game out of the sixth spot. The Vikings are three-point home favorites in game that has a rather low 43.5-point total. It will be important to monitor the injury status of Dalvin Cook. He's listed as questionable after sitting out last week with a shoulder injury. Adam Thielen has already been ruled out after spraining his ankle on Sunday. From a DFS perspective, there are appealing options on both sides but most are expensive. Thielen's absence opens some cheaper value options on the Vikings. Remember that chalky builds rarely win the largest-field GPPs and when they do, dozens, if not hundreds, split first place. It's much better to take some chances and look for ways to differentiate. Maximizing ROI in these single-game contests is about embracing risk. Good Luck.

QUARTERBACKS

Kirk Cousins ($10,400 DK, $16,000 FD) has been surprisingly good this season, despite the Vikings' struggles. His 25:3 TD/INT ratio is the best in football, and he's topped 25 fantasy points five times in 12 games.  The matchup against Pittsburgh should be rather favorable for Cousins. The Steelers once-vaunted defense has been mediocre at best this season. They still get to the quarterback thanks to T.J. Watt, though, so Cousins might be forced to get the ball out quicker. I plan to be overweight on the Vikings passing game, and Cousins stands out as one of the top options in general. I much prefer him over Roethlisberger even though he's more expensive. 

Ben Roethlisberger ($9,000 DK, $15,000 FD) was pretty good in Sunday's upset over the Ravens, throwing for 236 yards and two TDs on his way to 19.34 DK points. It was actually the second-most fantasy points he's scored this season as he's shown a consistent lack of upside. He's thrown for more than 300 yards just once this season and has only topped 20 fantasy points once as well. Thursday's matchup against the Vikings is neutral. They are average against the pass and just allowed 296 yards and three TDs to Jared Goff on Sunday. Roethlisberger is a decent option on DraftKings, considering he's the sixth-most expensive player and quite a bit cheaper than the top options, while on FanDuel, he's the second-most expensive player. The Steelers playing from behind would be the best-case scenario for rostering him. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Justin Jefferson ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD) is coming off a massive game Sunday when he caught 11 of 14 targets for 182 yards and a touchdown. In his last four games, Jefferson has eclipsed 143 yards three times while averaging 11 targets. Adam Thielen sprained his ankle in the first quarter last week, which likely led to more targets for Jefferson. Thielen won't play Thursday, which should boost Jefferson's target share again. With Thielen out, Jefferson looks like the top option on the slate, and that's the way he's priced. If that's the case, I plan on having close to 100 percent exposure — he'd be a good option for the captain spot too. K.J. Osborn ($5,600 DK, $8,000 FD) caught four of seven targets for 47 yards and a TD on Sunday. He'll see significant increases in snaps and target share in Thielen's absence, which makes him one of the top values on the slate. He's a good option for the captain spot as well. Dede Westbrook ($2,200 DK, $6,500 FD) is likely to serve as the No. 3 WR. He played 44 percent of the snaps last week and caught one of two targets. For such a cheap salary, he's well worth the gamble in GPPs. 

Diontae Johnson ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD) continues to see an incredible amount of targets. He's drawn at least 13 in five of the last seven games. He's coming off his best game of the season Sunday when he caught eight passes for 105 yards and two TDs. He has a higher floor and ceiling than any other Steeler, and I plan on rostering him in most of my lineups. Chase Claypool ($7,400 DK, $10,000 FD) drew a season-low three targets last week and now his salary is at a low point. He always has considerable upside based on his big-play ability as a deep threat. He makes for a good pivot off Johnson and can be rostered in the captain spot as well because he's relatively cheap and has ceiling potential. James Washington ($5,000 FK, $7,000 FD), on the other hand, seems a bit overpriced. He had only one target last week and has drawn only six the last three weeks. Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,200 DK, $6,500 FD) is a better option for cheaper. He drew four targets last week and saw the second-most WR snaps behind Johnson. 

At tight end, Tyler Conklin ($6,200 DK, $8,500 FD) could see increased target share in Thielen's absence. He's coming off season highs in catches (seven) and targets (nine) last week. He's also an option for the captain spot based on salary and touchdown upside. Chris Herndon ($200 DK, $5,500 FD) and Luke Stocker ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) each played 13 snaps but neither was targeted.

Pat Freiermuth ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD) has five TDs in his last six games and is averaging more than five targets per game in that span.The Vikings have been tough against TEs this season. I prefer Conklin, but Freiermuth is a decent option too. Zach Gentry ($2,600 DK, $6,500 FD) has drawn two targets in consecutive games but seems overpriced based on the lack of volume and upside. 

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook ($10,800 DK, $12,000 FD) was limited in practice this week after sitting out Sunday due to a shoulder injury. He's questionable to play and likely a game-time decision. If he misses, Alexander Mattison ($9,800 DK, $12,000 FD) would be in line for a three-down role once again. He had 25 touches Sunday; expect something similar to that if Cook is out. Mattison would be one of the top options on the slate, and I'd have significant exposure in the flex and captain spots. The Steelers defense has struggled stopping the run lately. If Cook plays, I won't have much interest, if any, in Mattison based on his inflated salary. I'd definitely roster Cook, however. It's possible that he'd be limited and split time with Mattison, but it's a good matchup and whichever RB plays has multiple-touchdown upside. 

Najee Harris ($10,000 DK, $14,000 FD) continues to see all the work in the Steelers backfield. He had 26 touches last week and averages more than five targets per game this season. He's only rushed for 100-plus yards twice this season behind Pittsburgh's below-average offensive line but Minnesota is banged up on the defensive line and have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in two of the last five weeks. This could be a spot for Harris to have success on the ground while catching passes in the process. If so, he'd make for a great option in both the flex and captain spot. 

KICKERS

Rostering kickers always makes sense in games that have lower totals. Often, it only takes two field goals for them to end up on the optimal lineup. Greg Joseph ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) and Chris Boswell ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) are among the better cheap value options on the slate. There isn't much to like in the cheap range besides Osborn and maybe Westbrook. It isn't hard to imagine that every player priced below the kickers busts and that's what you're looking for when evaluating their viability. I slightly prefer Joseph based on the Vikings being three-point favorites. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

I don't usually underweight on D/ST because they're too popular and aren't optimal often enough, but they become more viable in games with low totals that don't have much for cheap value. Also, any defense is a decent option against Ben Roethlisberger these days as he isn't mobile and is known to throw the occasional pick-six. For that reason, and the fact that I think Minnesota wins, I'll have more exposure to the Vikings ($4,400) than the Steelers ($4,200). If you plan on making Pittsburgh heavy builds, consider the Steelers D/ST.