Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Chargers vs. Raiders

For the first time since Week 3's Titans vs. Jaguars clash, we are presented with two teams on a Thursday that have failed to win more games than they've lost, with the 4-5 Chargers traveling to face the 4-4 Raiders. A battle of two California teams for now, the Chargers are rumored to be looking into a permanent move to London, while the Raiders' new stadium in Las Vegas is on track to be ready for the 2020 season. Absolutely none of the relocation stuff has to do with Thursday night's game, so let's just focus on the fact that the Raiders are 1.5-point home underdogs in a game with a solid 49.5-point total. After losing five of their first seven games, the Chargers come in off back-to-back wins at Chicago and home against the Packers, while the Raiders ended a two-game losing streak last week by beating the Lions in their first home game since Week 2 (their Week 5 "home" game against the Bears was in London). Despite some struggles early in the season, the Raiders have scored at least 21 points in five straight games while the Chargers have been the opposite, failing to reach that many in four of their last five. 

QUARTERBACKS

Philip Rivers ($10,000 DK, $14,000 FD) is the NFL's leader in passing yards, aided by the fact the Chargers haven't had a bye yet, but only Tom Brady has completed more passes and Brady and Andy Dalton are the only ones who have attempted more. Unfortunately, Rivers has been in a bit of a funk recently, passing for 201 and 294 yards in the past two games, respectively, while only connecting on one touchdown. The big positive he takes into Thursday's game is that only one team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks this season on FanDuel, and two on DraftKings, than the Raiders, and a vast majority of that production came through the air, with Aaron Rodgers accounting for the only rushing touchdown allowed to a QB. The Chargers' passing tree is a bit bigger recently, and if Rivers is able to spread his passes around then he would make for a solid captain/MVP selection, a move that isn't likely to be faded by many.

On the other hand, 17 quarterbacks have thrown for more yards than Derek Carr ($9,600 DK, $14,500 FD), though he's been much more prolific than Rivers of late, passing for at least 285 yards and two touchdowns in three consecutive starts. Neither quarterback does much with their legs, so it's their passing volume that represents their upside, and Carr has certainly shown more recently. Unfortunately, for as different as they've been playing, the same applies to their individual matchups, as Carr will face off against a Chargers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on DraftKings and FanDuel, holding the Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, Steelers and Packers to fewer than 200 yards, while only four QBs have thrown for multiple touchdowns against them. Granted, they haven't faced that many good quarterbacks (in fact, they've faced some pretty terrible ones), but Carr is not in the upper echelon of signal callers anyway, even if he's playing well lately. It feels pretty unnatural to have to pay so much for Carr given his performances before the past few games, and it helps that he doesn't throw to a ton of different guys, so it's possible to focus more on the Raiders' pass catchers instead of Carr if you want exposure to their aerial attack. Because of that, Carr could be an underutilized captain/MVP.

WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS

Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD) is third in the NFL with 1,010 air yards, while his 84 targets are the fifth-most league-wide. However, the actual production hasn't been there recently, as 42 of his 84 targets (50.0 percent) and 404 of his 657 receiving yards (61.5 percent) came in the first three games of the season, and he hasn't had more than 65 receiving yards nor a single touchdown since Week 3. The target volume is there, as he's had 25 passes thrown to him in his last three games, but the receiver we saw early in the season seems to be gone. The reintroduction and force feeding of Melvin Gordon (more on him later) has really reduced the number of pass attempts, and Allen is certainly feeling it. Fellow starter Mike Williams ($7,400 DK, $10,500 FD) continues to be more of a deep threat, something we saw just last weekend when he caught all three of his targets for 111 yards. Williams has had only two games this season with at least five targets, and there's little reason to think he's going to be heavily targeted Thursday, even against a Raiders defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on DraftKings and FanDuel. Only the Dolphins have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers among teams who have played eight games (like the Raiders), and with Williams such a big touchdown regression candidate, there will definitely be fantasy players convincing themselves that he's the play this week.

The lack of volume to Allen and Williams came as tight end Hunter Henry ($8,400 DK, $12,500 FD) returned from a four-game absence, exploding in his first game back in Week 6 with eight catches on nine targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Since then, he's caught 17 of 24 targets for 228 yards, as Rivers has clearly caught an eye for Henry and running back Austin Ekeler ($7,000 DK, $11,500 FD), who had 13 catches on 15 targets for 160 yards and two receiving touchdowns in the last three games. Ekeler was one of the best fantasy running backs in the NFL before Gordon decided to return from his contract holdout, a move that all but killed Ekeler's extremely high fantasy value because he's not getting nearly enough carries to supplement his excellent work in the passing game. Then again, he's basically catching passes like a wide receiver, as Allen is the only player on the team with more targets and receiving yards (Ekeler leads the team with 55 receptions). No other wide receiver or tight end on the team has double-digit targets this season, so while you can try to build a case for guys like Virgil Green ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Lance Kendricks ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), Andre Patton ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) or Jason Moore ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), they are all just so far down the target chain that it's just not worth it.

The Raiders' wide receivers haven't been that good, with Hunter Renfrow ($5,000 DK, $9,500 FD) leading them in targets (37) and receptions (24) while Tyrell Williams ($8,000 DK, $10,000 FD) tops them in receiving yards (355), touchdowns (five), air yards (510) and aDOT (15.0, among players with more than two targets). Renfrow is much more of an underneath receiver, as his 5.9 aDOT shows, while Williams is the clear down-field threat who also caught one touchdown in his first five games this season (he missed two games due to injury). You can certainly look at the touchdowns as positives, though the clear nit to pick is that zero came from inside the red zone and he's topped 50 yards just twice this season. Renfrow does have a TD in each of the past two games, but he also has finished with more than 55 receiving yards just once. He's trending in the right direction, but he doesn't have significant volume to even rely on receptions to help his floor, which is why more people are likely to focus on Williams.

However, the Raiders pass catcher that needs the most attention is tight end Darren Waller ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD), who leads the team in targets (60), receptions (48) and receiving yards (548). He was held in check last week by the Lions, catching both of his targets for 52 yards, but he had at least seven targets in six of his seven games before that, so we know where Carr's focus has been. Renfrow's uptick in production has come at the same time as Waller's downward swing, catching two passes in each of his past two games, but Waller is surely to be more popular overall, including some captain/MVP selections. Or, you could go touchdown hunting with his backup, Foster Moreau ($2,200 DK, $6,000 FD), who has a touchdown in three of his last five games, though he also has just 11 catches on 14 targets for 113 yards in that span. On the plus side, he's had at least one red-zone target in four of the last five, something Waller can't say (three of five). 

Going down to third-stringer Derek Carrier ($400 DK, $5,500 FD) is probably too far, even though his 11 targets this season are more than any other wide receiver on the team, including Keelan Doss ($200 DK, $6,000 FD), who was a healthy scratch in both of the past two games despite three catches on five targets for 54 yards in Week 7 at Green Bay, Trevor Davis ($800 DK, $5,500 FD), who played just one snap last week despite eight targets in his previous three games, Marcell Ateman ($600 DK, $5,000 FD), who has two catches on two targets this season which went for 36 and 34 yards, respectively, and Dwayne Harris ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who hasn't played an offensive snap since Week 2. If there's a longer shot worth considering it's Zay Jones ($2,600 DK, $7,000 FD), who has five catches on six targets for 48 yards in his two games since being acquired in a trade with the Bills. His price is up because he's actually played consistently this season, and he did draw a red-zone target last week, which could make him a popular punt option.

RUNNING BACKS

As mentioned above, the re-introduction of Melvin Gordon ($7,200 DK, $13,000 FD) has really screwed up the Chargers' offense, though he finally had a good game last week against Green Bay, rushing 20 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns while catching three of four targets for 29 receiving yards. He's now scored at least one touchdown in three straight games and seems more likely to get a majority of the backfield touches against a Raiders defense that's allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel. The usage split between Gordon and Ekeler, particularly with the latter in the passing game, certainly makes it viable to play the two together, though you don't get the benefit of a backup salary since both are priced like starters, albeit lower than we usually see. Gordon seems more likely be higher owned and captained/MVPed because of his recent play, which could give some fantasy players some slight leverage if they choose to give the 1.5x multiplier spot to Ekeler. The best way for that to pay off is if the Raiders go up early and Rivers starts keying on Ekeler in the passing game because he's unlikely to get huge volume as long as Gordon is healthy.

The Oakland side is much more clear cut, as rookie Josh Jacobs ($9,400 DK, $14,500 FD) has dominated the Raiders' backfield touches, enough so that he's the co-most expensive player on FanDuel, tied with Carr. He's rushed 152 times for 740 yards and six touchdowns, which are 115, 607 and five more, respectively, than the next-highest rusher, who is DeAndre Washington ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD), a player still looking for his first game with 30 rushing yards. Jacobs has been awesome recently, rushing for at least 120 yards in three of his last four games, scoring two touchdowns in a game twice during that span, and while he has just 10 targets in those games, it's tough to complain when he's getting over 20+ carries. It also doesn't hurt that the Chargers have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs on FanDuel and DraftKings this season. Given his excellent production from his consistent usage, Jacobs will surely be popular Thursday, with many tying their hopes to him as their captain/MVP. 

We probably shouldn't ignore pass-catcher Jalen Richard ($3,000 DK, $8,000 FD), especially after he had a season-high 56 receiving yards last season, but any consideration that he would be taking away from Jacobs seems to be limited given that he has just two more targets, three more receptions and 18 more receiving yards this year. Richard at least offers some salary savings versus the Raiders' running backs or backup tight ends, but the upside is pretty limited with zero red-zone targets and one red-zone carry this season (and it was outside the 10 in Week 5).

KICKERS

Chargers kicker Michael Badgley ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) returned from injury last week in grand fashion, hitting four of five field-goal attempts and two PATs for 16.0 fantasy points. He was solid in 10 games for the team last year as well, and his potential is barely different from any other kicker in an expected high(ish)-scoring game; he makes sense in cash games because of his floor, and his upside is somewhat limited because he can't score touchdowns.

That same line theoretically applies to Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson ($3,600 DK, $8,500 FD), though we can't ignore that he has yet to connect on multiple field goals in a game this season, with last week's game against the Lions the first time all season he got multiple attempts. On the plus side, he's made all 23 of his PATs, but with the Raiders scoring so many of their touchdowns on long plays, it's tough to rely on them getting near or into the red zone and coming up short, therefore giving Carlson multiple opportunities. Then again, it's kicker and there's plenty of variance and he could hit five field goals Thursday and no one would be talking about how historically shocking it was.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither defense/special teams unit has been that dominant this season, which is why we can get them at fairly close and inexpensive prices. The Raiders ($3,400 DK) are the cheaper of the two and come in with just one game this season with double-digit fantasy points, and it was the minimum 10.0 against the Colts in Week 4. They don't get a ton of sacks nor force a lot of turnovers, so the upside is tough to see against Rivers, who has turned the ball over multiple times just once this season.

Meanwhile, only four quarterbacks in the league have thrown at least as many touchdowns as Carr but have fewer than his four interceptions, and his 3.5 percent sack rate is one of the lowest in the league (and better than Rivers' 4.6 percent, which is also pretty good). The Chargers ($3,400) defense has at least hit double-digits twice this season, one of which included a touchdown, but they haven't been turning the ball over while recording just nine sacks in the past three games. Needless to say, the defenses offer higher floors than other players in the price range, but the upsides for GPPs don't seem to be there unless something wild happens.