Thursday Night DFS Breakdown: Giants vs. Patriots

Thursday night's Giants vs. Patriots matchup will look pretty different than the two Super Bowls they played earlier this decade, as the Patriots come in as 16.5-point home favorites with a fairly pedestrian 41.5-point total on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Wednesday night. The Giants come in following a 28-10 home loss to the Vikings, though that was preceded by victories over Tampa Bay and Washington that saw them score a combined 56 points. However, a plethora of injuries to some of their most important players could have them desperate to reach the 10.5-point team total.

On that front, superstar running back Saquon Barkley ($9,200) will not play because of a high ankle sprain, while backup running back Wayne Gallman ($6,400) suffered a concussion this past weekend and has been ruled out as well. It only gets worse from there, as tight end Evan Engram ($7,200), who leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, suffered an MCL sprain during last weekend's loss to the Vikings and has been ruled out, and top wide receiver Sterling Shepard ($6,600), who leads the team in air yards by a considerable margin despite playing just four games, is out with a concussion. The Patriots are also dealing with a few injuries, but nothing remotely close to the issues the Giants are facing.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The salary multiplier on DraftKings for the captain spot makes roster construction different than on FanDuel, who multiplies the fantasy points for your MVP but not the salary. Generally, you can build similar lineups on the two sites to coincide with the way you think the game will play out, but that might be significantly different Thursday because of DraftKings making the Patriots defense ($6,200) available while FanDuel doesn't have that option. Defensive points are extremely variant, but the Patriots have been dominant this season, scoring more fantasy points than all but the top 25 scorers on DraftKings this season, a group that includes 12 quarterbacks, seven running backs and six wide receivers. They've scored at least 10.0 in all five games, with their ceiling (so far) coming in Week 2 against Miami when they scored 37.0 thanks to four interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns, seven sacks and zero points allowed. For comparison sake, that line closed at New England -18 with a 49-point total, one that ended in a 43-0 Patriots win. The reason why the Patriots defense is such a huge factor for those playing on DraftKings is because they are the 12th-most expensive "player," or the eighth if you remove Barkley, Engram, Shepard and Gallman. Using the Patriots in the captain spot pushes their salary to $9,300, which is still lower than Tom Brady ($11,800) and Julian Edelman's ($10,400) non-captain prices. The salary flexibility created by using the Patriots defense as a captain allows a very significant Patriots stack, and if you're sitting there thinking that this is a sneaky move and you'll really take advantage, just realize everyone is fully aware of how good they've been and what captaining them does.

QUARTERBACKS

Giants quarterback Daniel Jones' ($8,000 DK, $13,500 FD) first NFL start couldn't have gone much better, as he threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for two scores in a win over the Buccaneers. However, it's been tough sledding since then, throwing for 225 yards and one touchdown in Week 4 against Washington and then 182 yards and one touchdown last week against Minnesota. Unfortunately, we can't ignore that he lost two fumbles in his first start, threw two picks in his second and then one in his third, and he's now facing a Patriots defense that leads the NFL in interceptions (11) and sacks (24), and they've recovered only one of five forced fumbles. The only reason to use Jones is to be contrarian, but it would take an absolutely massive surprise for Jones to be good enough against this defense, especially when he's missing his top wide receiver, top tight end and top two running backs.

Meanwhile, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady ($11,800 DK, $16,000 FD) is the most expensive player on both sites, which isn't surprising since he comes in with the most fantasy points scored among players in the game, and he's under center for a 16.5-point favorite. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of five games, thrice eclipsing 300 passing yards, and really the biggest concern is that the Patriots get up big early and Brady doesn't have to throw enough to put up a big fantasy score. That being said, the Patriots have won by 30, 43, 16, six and 26, respectively, but Brady still scored at least 23.1 on DraftKings and 20.1 on FanDuel in all but the Week 4 six-point win over Buffalo. Additionally, the Giants' defense has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on DraftKings and seventh-most on FanDuel, a stark contrast to their Thursday opponents, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position on both sites. Brady figures to be extremely popular, both as a captain and MVP, and there will likely be a significant number of lineups on DraftKings that have him with the Patriots defense.

PASS CATCHERS

The Giants' two best options in the passing game are their top wide receiver (Shepard) and their top tight end (Engram), both of whom are out. With Barkley and Gallman also sidelined, the remaining nine pass catchers (wide receivers, tight ends and running backs) have combined for 45 catches on 72 targets for 498 yards and two touchdowns. If there's a positive it's that the Giants have a number of big-play options who could make surprising impacts Thursday, if only because they are downfield threats. On the down side, Bennie Fowler is third on the team with 251 air yards and a 13.2 aDOT, but he was cut last week to make room for Golden Tate ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD). Tate was suspended for the first four games of the season but caught three of six targets for 13 yards in his debut last weekend. The six targets weren't a lot, but they were more than anyone else who will play for the Giants on Thursday. Darius Slayton ($6,000 DK, $8,500 FD) finished with just one fewer target in the game, and he's now had 12 passes thrown his way in the last three games, catching three of five for 82 yards in Week 3, two of two for 13 in Week 4 and four of five for 62 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Slayton has been more reliable than Cody Latimer ($800 DK, $5,500), whose 13 targets and 244 air yards lead Giants available for Thursday's game, but he hasn't actually caught a pass since Week 2 and was targeted just once in each of the past two games. Finally, Cody Core ($200 DK, $5,000 FD) caught three of five targets for 28 yards in Week 2 but hasn't been targeted since while playing just 12 offensive snaps, including zero last week. Given the hodgepodge of mediocrity among the Giants' pass catchers, it's really hard to justify any of them as a legitimate upside play unless the Patriots defense makes a significant mistake, something that really hasn't happened this season. The final option is tight end Rhett Ellison ($200 DK, $5,000 FD), who will start in place of Engram. Ellison has at least caught at least one pass in every game this season (though he's caught more than one pass just once), and his dirt cheap salary could make him the lone Giants pick on many fantasy teams stacking the Patriots.

The Patriots' situation is much different, with Josh Gordon ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD) and Julian Edelman ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD) the two primary wideouts likely to be heavily owned. Edelman leads the team with 29 catches on 41 targets for 336 receiving yards, while Gordon has caught 19 of 35 targets for 280 yards but leads the team with 359 air yards. Phillip Dorsett has been ruled out because of a hamstring injury, which could give more snaps to Jakobi Meyers ($4,800 DK, $5,500 FD), who comes in with only four receptions this season but should run significantly more routes than he has been. Tight end Ryan Izzo ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) should see an increase in snaps after the team released Ben Watson this week, and he comes in after catching both of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown last week at Washington. Meanwhile, fellow tight end Matt LaCosse ($1,800 DK, $5,000 FD) played 73 of a possible 78 snaps last week, though he only caught one of his four targets for 22 yards. Edelman's high reception volume should always make him a consideration for captain/MVP, and Gordon's big-play ability isn't something that should be looked beyond either. The difficulty is that you need one of them to really go off to justify the salary and points multiplier, and given the available value on the slate, it might just be best captaining Brady if you think the Patriots do their damage through the air.

RUNNING BACKS

With Barkley and Gallman ruled out, the Giants will rely on Jon Hilliman ($5,800 DK, $8,000 FD)) and Elijhaa Penny ($3,200 DK, $7,500 FD) to lead the backfield. Hilliman has rushed 19 times for 53 yards while catching one of two targets for four receiving yards in two games, totals that make him look like dominant versus Penny's eight carries for 30 yards and one catch on one target for nine receiving yards this season. Neither player was doing much when Barkley and Gallman were healthy, and they're now being thrown into the fire against a Patriots defense that's allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs on DraftKings and FanDuel this season. Hilliman is expected to get the start and theoretically get some fantasy attention, but captaining/MVPing him seems like you're just lighting money on fire given the matchup.

The Patriots' running back situation is much different, and they are one of a few select teams in the NFL where rostering multiple players at the position in a showdown/single game could be beneficial, though it works more for DraftKings than FanDuel because of the full PPR. Despite a very poor 3.4 yards per carry, Sony Michel ($7,600 DK, $12,500 FD) continues to lead the backfield, rushing 78 times for 262 yards and three touchdowns this season, including 16 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown last weekend, a game when he also caught all three targets for 32 yards, the first time all season he caught a pass and only the second he was even targeted. The Patriots seem to want to use Michel early to help them get ahead and then completely abandon him, though Thursday's expected game script of them being up and running the game out is a theoretical path to lots of touches. Backup Rex Burkhead ($3,400 DK, $7,500 FD) is questionable because of a foot injury that held him out of last Sunday's game, and it seems like if Burkhead is active then he'll only take away from Michel, much like he did in Week 3 against the Jets when he rushed 11 times for 47 yards and a touchdown while Michel was held to 11 yards on nine carries, though he did score a first quarter touchdown. 

However, the real star on the backfield is James White ($6,800 DK, $11,000 FD), who has rushed 14 times for 63 yards, but more importantly has caught 22 of 30 targets for 178 yards in four games. His 111 air yards are the fourth-most on the team, and while his 3.7 aDOT doesn't indicate a ton of upside, he makes plenty of sense on PPR DraftKings after catching 14 of 19 targets for 103 yards in the past two games. White is pretty much another wide receiver for the Patriots, so while you're technically rostering a running back, he's unlikely to get many carries, particularly in the red zone. And I guess we can't ignore Brandon Bolden ($1,400 DK, $7,500 FD), who rushed five times for 13 yards and caught his only target for a 29-yard touchdown last week, but he's securely the fourth running back on the depth chart and unlikely to make a big enough impact.

KICKERS

Long-time Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been ruled out for the rest of the season because of a hip injury, which means they will continue to rely on Mike Nugent ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD), who hit both of his field goal attempts last week against Washington, though he missed one of four PATs. The Patriots are expected to put plenty of points on the board, and while Nugent could be a part of that, his upside is limited because he's not scoring touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Giants' Aldrick Rosas ($3,000 DK, $9,000 FD) has yet to attempt multiple field goals in a game this season, and the only attempt beyond 40 yards was a miss. Given the Patriots' strong defense, it would be surprising if the Giants were held to just field goals, which could make Rosas their highest-scoring player.