Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Green Bay vs. Detroit

Expect this Sunday Night Football game to look like a bitter division rivalry – regardless of whether Detroit is playoff eligible as of 8:20 eastern time. If Dan Campbell's Lions are playoff eligible then they will play with hope and desperation, if they aren't playoff eligible they will play with spite and anger. Whichever one they get, the Packers will need to be ready to play hard and play well. After opening as 5.5-point favorites, the line is now down to 4.5 points with an over/under of 49.5 – up from 48. That the game is in Lambeau is a reassuring detail for the Packers, but the over/under implies they'll need to score points to win. This game could be higher scoring than what's typical for Lambeau this time of the year.

QUARTERBACKS

Jared Goff ($9600 DK, $15000 FD) has enjoyed a strong season overall, but he tends to get worse on the road and especially outdoors, and more particularly yet with inclement weather. The weather won't be bad at all, but anything south of 40 degrees historically can be a problem for Goff, and this game is expected to be around 25 degrees. Goff even struggled in his home game against Green Bay earlier this year, completing just 14 of 26 passes for 137 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Normally the odds would not favor his chances of doing better at Lambeau than Detroit in a given year.

Aaron Rodgers ($10400 DK, $16000 FD) has had a down year due to injuries and occasional poor play, but this looks like a good matchup for him. His receivers have the advantage over the Detroit secondary, and the Detroit pass rush should be manageable. The conditions perfectly suit Rodgers, as well. Whereas Goff loses something outdoors and when the temperature drops below California standards, Rodgers is at his best at temperatures between 21 and 40. According to Yahoo, Rodgers has a career quarterback rating of 107.1 over 54 games in such temperatures, while Goff's figure is 85.9 over 12 games.

RUNNING BACKS

D'Andre Swift ($7600 DK, $13000 FD) seemingly can't be counted on for anything in particular, but the Lions should understand that they probably need a good game from Swift to beat Green Bay. Goff can only be counted on for so much – not much, more specifically – and Jamaal Williams ($7000 DK, $12500 FD) is little more than a short-yardage back and blocker. When the Lions need Goff or Williams to be more than they are they lose – specifically they need more explosiveness, and Swift is the only player who can provide it. That doesn't mean Swift is guaranteed to produce here, just that Detroit is in a lot of trouble if he doesn't. Even if Williams is the Lions running back most likely to score touchdowns, they need Swift to get him into scoring range in the first place. The Lions have also featured a third running back most weeks – Justin Jackson ($200 DK, $6500 FD) held that role prior to last week, when Craig Reynolds ($200 DK, $5000 FD) filled in with Jackson injured. Jackson might reclaim that role in this game at Reynolds' expense.

It seems like at least one of Aaron Jones ($10000 DK, $13500 FD) or AJ Dillon ($6800 DK, $11500 FD) should post substantial numbers in this game, and depending on the game flow it's possible for both players to end up in the cashing lineups. Dillon is in the midst of a hot streak, scoring in five straight games and posting double-digit fantasy points in each game as a result, including two games over 20 points. Dillon had gone 10 weeks without double-digit points prior to that, and particularly with Jones' rushing touchdown total improbably low (two) the general fear of regression might be warranted with Dillon. Or at least, it would make sense if Jones went on a touchdown spree soon. Jones has two touchdowns on his last 201 carries, whereas in the prior 609 carries he scored 29 times.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11000 DK, $14000 FD) is always a primary consideration in showdown slates, and in this one he's especially tough to fade. Not only is he the best Lions receiver generally and the one the Lions are most motivated to target, he also has the easiest matchup among Detroit receivers. St. Brown should avoid Jaire Alexander and instead face safety/slot corner Darnell Savage, who has been a liability at times. DJ Chark ($5800 DK, $8500 FD) needs Goff to play well to get catchable targets, but if Goff is on his game then Chark is definitely a threat, particularly downfield. Chark is much taller than Alexander and much faster than Rasul Douglas, so his tools should play against these corners if the quarterback does his part. Josh Reynolds ($1800 DK, $8000 FD) is steady but middling, and it's not clear how safe his playing time might be from burners Kalif Raymond ($2200 DK, $7500 FD) and Jameson Williams ($2400 DK, $6000 FD). Raymond is also the usual returner for Detroit, for what it's worth. Tight end Shane Zylstra ($1000 DK, $6000 FD) caught three touchdown passes in Week 16 but generally doesn't do much – James Mitchell ($400 DK, $5000 FD) will eventually displace Zylstra as a pass-catching specialist, while Brock Wright ($3000 DK, $6500 FD) outsnaps both of them as a blocking specialist. Wright is toolsy and has quietly produced efficiently on his targets, but generally the Lions don't give him many opportunities.

Christian Watson ($9000 DK, $11000 FD) is Green Bay's best means of creating a big play, but for moving the chains they might find most consistency in Allen Lazard ($7400 DK, $10000 FD). If the Lions prioritize Watson in their coverages then Lazard or Romeo Doubs ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) might find themselves open more. If the Lions crowd underneath then it might be easier in that case to get Watson going downfield. Randall Cobb ($3600 DK, $7000 FD) is a playoff-tested veteran and could be featured a little more than usual with elimination on the line. Robert Tonyan ($5000 DK, $7500 FD) is the only Packers tight end capable of producing as a pass catcher to any consistent extent but they continue to limit his snaps to subsidize snaps for zeroes like Josiah Deguara ($200 DK, $5000 FD) and Tyler Davis ($200 DK, $5000 FD). Marcedes Lewis ($600 DK, $5000 FD) doesn't often draw targets either but does occasionally, and unlike Deguara/Davis at least Lewis is an impact blocker.

KICKERS

Mason Crosby ($4200 DK, $9000 FD) doesn't have much left in terms of range, but his opportunity level of late has been excellent, granting him six field goal attempts in the past two weeks, resulting in double-digit fantasy points both times. Crosby only had two double-digit fantasy games in the prior 14 weeks, so it's possible he's just been arbitrarily lucky lately. But Green Bay is favored in this game, the over/under is encouraging, and if just one of the offenses stalls in scoring range it could significantly boost Crosby's opportunity potential. Michael Badgley ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) also has a case in this slate, because he could also be a beneficiary of a high-scoring scenario or/and a scenario where the Lions move the ball but fail to score touchdowns specifically. Badley is held back slightly by range limitations, but he has double-digit fantasy points in four of his 11 games with Detroit.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Neither defense projects especially well in this game, but the Packers ($3800 DK, $9500 FD) at least have the homefield advantage, favored status, a thriving kick return game, and they catch Goff outdoors in the cold. Goff has a career completion percentage of 60.1 at just 6.8 yards per attempt in weather of this temperature range, and the Packers already showed reasonably well against Goff in Detroit earlier this year. The Lions ($3400 DK, $8500 FD) don't really have an angle – they need the Packers to fail on their own, because the Detroit defense just doesn't have the personnel to dictate much at all. The pass rush has shown some life, but only occasionally and Green Bay will likely be able to lean on their run game to tire the Detroit front seven a bit in the pass rush.