Streaming Defenses: Picking a Week 1 Defense

This article is part of our Streaming Defenses series.

Colts

After an offseason of change, the Bills new QB is Tyrod Taylor, who after four seasons with the Ravens has 35 pass attempts to his name. Skill wise, he's athletic and could present problems, when he gets out of the pocket and starts to improvise. His WR/TE corps is led by Sammy Watkins, who didn't produce much the second half of 2014 and will likely see plenty of DB Vontae Davis, who rated out as Pro Football Focus' second best overall corner last season. If Davis is up to the task and negates Watkins, it's tough to say where Taylor will turn, as Percy Harvin hasn't produced much in his last three seasons, as he bounces from team to team.

Expect to see TE Charles Clay targeted often, as Taylor settles in and looks to get in a rhythm with intermediate throws. The point that remains though is that Taylor is an unknown and while he could surprise defenses as the season progresses and he gains experience, even in college he completed just 57.2 percent of his passes, a number that doesn't figure to increase with his time holding a clipboard for four years. RB LeSean McCoy is dealing with a hamstring injury, but figures to be ready come game time. A good and at time great back, he figures to be the focal point of the offense, which should be cause for concern for a Colts defense that was ranked tied for 19th in YPC (4.3) last season. But in today's NFL you'd always rather your opponent run the ball than pass it, as chunk yardage plays live in the air. Vegas has this over/under set at 46 with the Colts favored by 3, which puts this at about a 24-21 game. Facing the Bills on the road, the Colts defense/special teams has an ownership of 10.0 percent at ESPN and 35 percent at Yahoo.

Browns

Say what you will about the Browns offense, but their defense was Top 10 last season in terms of yards per play (5.2) and I'm hopeful that will carry over into Week 1. They thrived against the pass last season, ranking fifth in YPA (6.1) and against Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, sign me up! He was actually mildly efficient last season, when allowed to throw the ball, ranking ninth in passer rating (95.3), but the Texans knew better than to allow him to sling it around as he has poor mobility and his decision making is weak, despite his Harvard schooling. With the Jets, he's in a similar situation, where he won't be allowed to make too many throws, despite some quality options, as he is just too turnover prone when the volume goes up.

WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker against DBs Joe Haden and Tramon Williams is a matchup that is pretty even on paper, if not favoring the Browns, considering Fitzpatrick's limitations. The Jets don't have a TE that is a threat to break anything down a seam or for chunk yardage and have no pass catching back to be weary of either. This would be a great matchup in general, but the Browns struggled against the run badly last season (4.5 YPC) and the Jets are a team that traditionally loves to pound the rock. RB Chris Ivory could really have a big game in this one, but that's just fine as far as the scoreboard is concerned, as teams score points by throwing the ball in today's NFL, not by running it constantly. The biggest worry is that the Jets run the ball so much so that the Browns defense doesn't get many chance to sack Fitzpatrick or pick him off. I expect this game to be a boring slugfest where the QB to make the biggest mistake late loses the game for his team. Vegas has this over/under set at 40 with the Jets favored by 3, which puts this at about a 21-18 game. Facing the Jets on the road, the Browns defense/special teams has an ownership of 12.1 percent at ESPN and 21 percent at Yahoo.

Bengals

The Raiders were the worst offense in the NFL in 2014, averaging just 4.5 yards per play. That figures to improve in 2015, but even still, they'd do well to be below average and that's just fine, when looking for an offense to stream against in Week 1. QB Derek Carr is promising, but he's still got quite a ways to go, as he ranked 33rd in YPA (5.46) and 30th in completion percentage (58.1) last season. He gets a new weapon in WR Amari Cooper, who as a rookie is expected to contribute right away. Also new is WR Michael Crabtree, whose best years are behind him in SF.

For the Bengals, this should be a great matchup, as DBs Dre Kirkpatrick, Leon Hall, and Adam Jones are veterans with enough foot speed and savvy to give Carr trouble all game long. On the ground, I'm interested to see if RB Latavius Murray can build on his encouraging finish to the 2014 season. The Bengals were average against the run last season, ranking tied for 19th in YPC (4.3) and I could see them being a bit exposed in this game, but that's only if the pass game keeps them honest. Vegas has this over/under set at 43.5 with the Bengals favored by 3.5, which puts this at about a 24-20 game. Facing the Raiders on the road, the Bengals defense/special teams has an ownership of 14.6 percent at ESPN and 13 percent at Yahoo.

Bucs

Facing a rookie QB is his debut is a situation fantasy owners should be eager to exploit. That said, the Bucs were a below average defense last season, ranking tied for 19th in yards per play (5.5) and I'm not sure much has changed going into this season. Still, Marcus Mariota isn't playing at Oregon anymore and his WR/TE corp consists of Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas, and Delanie Walker. I'm actually more intrigued by rookie Dorial Green-Beckham and second year player Justin Hunter, but any way you slice it, this is a group devoid of any established stars/playmakers.

Back to Mariota, he'll be asked to make some plays with his arm and legs because handing off the ball isn't ideal, as RB Bishop Sankey averaged just 3.7 YPC last season. Moreover, the Bucs ranked seventh in YPC (3.9) last season, as DT Gerald McCoy is a force to be reckoned with up the middle. I find DB Alterraun Verner to be a bit underrated, but the rest of the secondary is questionable and can certainly be had in coverage. But again, Mariota is making his NFL debut on the road and that counts for quite a bit, despite the Bucs defensive shortcomings. Considering the Bucs are starting their own rookie QB, I see a mess of a game with many turnovers. Vegas has this over/under set at 41.5 with the Bucs favored by 3, which puts this at about a 22-19 game. Facing the Titans at home, the Bucs defense/special teams has an ownership of 6.4 percent at ESPN and 5 percent at Yahoo.

Vikings

Coach Mike Zimmer turned things around pretty quickly on the defensive side of the ball last season in Minnesota and I'm hopeful he has more in store for 2015. In Week 1, he gets the question mark that is the 49ers, who have been gutted and left to rediscover their identity in almost every aspect. Even before the changes though, this was an offense that ranked 21st in yards per play (5.2) and looked to be regressing on it's own. QB Colin Kaepernick has seen his YPA fall each of the last two seasons and he now finds himself with new WR Torrey Smith to add to an aging Anquan Boldin and TE Vernon Davis, who completely disappeared last season.

At his best, Kaepernick is creating havoc with his legs and the running game is dictating the pace of the game, as the offensive line sets the tone. That sits just fine with me, as a Vikings backer, as the only deep threat is Smith, who is an inconsistent pass catcher. I expect LB Anthony Barr to only build on his rookie season and I'd be mildly surprised if he didn't make at least one big play in this game. I'm concerned about the Vikings ability to stop the run, as that figures to be the 49ers gameplan with RB Carlos Hyde. Newcomer RB Reggie Bush could open the flats in the passing game, but he's 30 years old now and doesn't pose the threat he once did, when his health wasn't an ongoing issue. I'd really love this matchup if the game were in Minnesota, but on MNF as the late game, I'm still buying in. Vegas has this over/under set at 41.5 with the Vikings favored by 2.5, which puts this at about a 22-20 game. Facing the 49ers on the road, the Vikings defense/special teams has an ownership of 31.5 percent at ESPN and 14 percent at Yahoo.

Here are my rankings for this week, the next four weeks, and the remainder of the season: