This article is part of our On Target series.
As we approach the beginning of Week Six, this is about the time we realize that certain teams we have are championship contenders and others will be lucky to finish the season with a win percentage above 25 percent. I personally have some desperate 1-4 teams where I'll be floating some trade offers to give me short-term stability and a few 5-0 teams where I am selling off luxury pieces to give me upside in the playoffs (Jordan Howard for Travis Kelce is one example of such a trade).
With that idea in mind, we are going to do another stock up, stock down update, taking a look at five guys to send trade offers out for and five guys to take what you can get at the bargaining table.
Buy Targets
He has only 10 catches over his last three games, so why am I suggesting that you target him in trades? Well, we certainly know that Alshon can produce as a leading WR in an offense even if the QB play is not great, and Wentz is currently performing above average. Jeffery leads his team in Air Yards and is also their most viable end-zone threat. Two of his last three games have come against Patrick Peterson and Janoris Jenkins, two legit shut down corners, and I think they have opened a buying window for him.
This one is pretty league dependent; in sharper leagues, I would be under the assumption that
As we approach the beginning of Week Six, this is about the time we realize that certain teams we have are championship contenders and others will be lucky to finish the season with a win percentage above 25 percent. I personally have some desperate 1-4 teams where I'll be floating some trade offers to give me short-term stability and a few 5-0 teams where I am selling off luxury pieces to give me upside in the playoffs (Jordan Howard for Travis Kelce is one example of such a trade).
With that idea in mind, we are going to do another stock up, stock down update, taking a look at five guys to send trade offers out for and five guys to take what you can get at the bargaining table.
Buy Targets
He has only 10 catches over his last three games, so why am I suggesting that you target him in trades? Well, we certainly know that Alshon can produce as a leading WR in an offense even if the QB play is not great, and Wentz is currently performing above average. Jeffery leads his team in Air Yards and is also their most viable end-zone threat. Two of his last three games have come against Patrick Peterson and Janoris Jenkins, two legit shut down corners, and I think they have opened a buying window for him.
This one is pretty league dependent; in sharper leagues, I would be under the assumption that many of your leaguemates realize that Hogan is actually the real leading WR in New England but in more casual leagues, there is a real window. Hogan is the most athletic Patriots wide receiver when you look at height and weight-adjusted speed scores, and he is dominating Brandin Cooks in target share. Even if you're paying 100 cents on the dollar, Hogan is one of the few WR's who can score 15 touchdowns this year.
The Giants lost all three of their starting wide receivers last week with Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall out for the year and Sterling Shepard set to miss several games. The Giants offense is going to be pretty abysmal going forward, but I would bet on Lewis to lead the team in targets the rest of the way over Evan Engram. It is hard enough for a rookie to learn one position and now the team will be asking him to learn a second. Lewis was a standout at Bowling Green State and while his athletic profile is a little underwhelming, he has more of a chance to stick than other fill-ins like Traveres King or Travis Rudolph.
We have seen it two years in a row with the Cardinals that as the season goes along, Larry Fitzgerald starts to slow down. Nelson has the best pedigree of any of the secondary Cardinals wide receivers and doesn't have the health issues that John Brown does. Jaron Brown actually leads the team in Air Yards by a considerable margin but as Carson Palmer ages, downfield routes are the types of throws he really struggles with, whereas Nelson plays a little closer to the line of scrimmage and has a much better catch rate. If Fitzgerald were to miss any time, I would expect Nelson to lead the team in PPR fantasy points from that time forward.
Of all players with more than 10 targets, Jackson leads the NFL in average depth of target by almost two full yards but has only one touchdown to show for it. We sort of know what Jackson is at this point and he is really the most elite deep threat in the NFL. However, he has yet to really click with Jameis Winston yet and his Air Yards suggest that he will. He is the perfect sort of trade target for winning teams that are looking for upside or a way to win playoff games.
Sell Targets
Don't get me wrong. I think that Allen will have a fine season and average a fairly healthy amount of catches per game, but the Chargers do not look like a winning football team. Allen is always subject to bumps and bruises and as the team gets further away from the playoff picture, the less receiving work and snaps Allen will get. If the team is not scoring more than a league average number of points, Allen's TD chances will get lower and lower as he is not a touchdown maker naturally. With a lower amount of red-zone opportunities, he is disproportionately affected compared to other WR's in his tier.
This one really hurts me but I think that it is the right thing to do. First, it just does not appear like Sam Bradford is ever going to be healthy this season and while Case Keenum has done alright filling in, he is not Bradford. Bradford was there for the installation of the offense all of the preseason and is a tier or two better as a quarterback than Keenum. Second, Diggs is not the sort of player that performs well when dinged up or not fully healthy, and he was forced to leave last weekend's game with a lower-body injury. I think you could get close to full value for Diggs right now and I would be willing to part with him for that price.
The biggest downgrade in stock in the Steelers' offense hasn't been Antonio Brown or Le'Veon Bell, it has been Bryant. Big Ben's inability to sustain drives and push the ball down the field like he did the last time we saw a full sample of Martavis has meant that a guy who scored in 80 percent of his NFL games before this season has only one touchdown and a Weighted Opportunity Ranking of under 0.5. There are definitely some SPARQ score believers in your league who are not ready to buy that Roethlisberger is done, but the offense has looked so bad holistically that I don't think the secondary pieces can be considered fantasy starters anymore.
Despite the injury to DeVante Parker, the ceiling for Landry does not look any better than it did before the season. Landry has regressed even farther to a very boring possession wide receiver, but the most troublesome thing is that the Dolphins offense is just bad. If the team is not sustaining long scoring drives and consistently holding the ball, Landry loses so much of his fantasy value. If your team is only running 55 plays per game, getting a 25 percent target share is not valuable when it comes with no touchdowns and no real Air Yards. He scored last week so I think there is a window where people may be interested in buying.
This is absolutely painful to me. Most of the surface numbers for Nelson look the same as always. He leads the NFL in touchdowns but has only 230 receiving yards and 28 targets through about four and a half games (he left the Atlanta game with an injury). He trails both Randall Cobb and Davante Adams in target share and has less Air Yards than Adams. I am not suggesting that you have to sell Nelson, but I think that he is probably a little overvalued right now compared to what his volume suggests. Nelson is one of the few WR's you could turn into a blue chip running back, and that is an avenue worth pursuing.
