NFL teams recently completed their mandatory minicamps, bringing a close to the offseason programs approximately six weeks before the start of training camp. The NFL news cycle may never truly be dead, but the next month-and-a-half should mostly be quiet, with the exception of rumors and the occasional scrap-heap veteran signing.
There are always a few major injuries before camp even begins, but most teams seem to have escaped relatively unscathed this year. Still, there are at least one or two notable storylines for every franchise, so let's start by looking at the AFC East, which just might be the most interesting division in the NFL at the moment. We'll have updates on the other divisions coming up soon.
Patriots
According to ESPN, LeGarrette Blount (hip) missed the offseason program with the same injury that brought his 2015 to an early end, adding further uncertainty to a Patriots running back group led by Dion Lewis, who was a limited participant while recovering from a torn ACL. Reports on Lewis have been overwhelmingly positive, and there's little doubt he'll have a starring role if his knee checks out fine during training camp. Blount's power-back role may be on shakier ground, as Brandon Bolden has proven to be a competent, albeit uninspiring, replacement option. The Pats have also been loosely linked to free agent Arian Foster, who remains unsigned after suffering a torn Achilles in October. Foster seems like a better fit for the Dolphins or Redskins, as he may be more of a passing-down specialist at this stage of his career.
However, the Patriots may still want some added insurance for Lewis, given that 2014 fourth-rounder James White didn't do much with his added opportunities last season. Undrafted rookie D.J. Foster could also be in the mix, having worked as a RB/WR hybrid during his college career at ASU. Foster had 444 carries and 222 catches in four seasons, with just 55 carries (but 59 receptions) as a senior. The Patriots also signed veteran Donald Brown, who could either be described as "versatile" or "not particularly good at anything". I favor the latter outlook, but the 29-year-old wouldn't be the first veteran RB re-tread to find new legs in New England. (Lewis and Blount both qualify.)
Elsewhere in the New England offense, wideouts Danny Amendola (knee/ankle) and Julian Edelman (foot) both missed the offseason program while recovering from surgeries, but neither is believed to be in any real danger of missing camp. However, even if he's healthy, the oft-injured Amendola is in serious danger of being marginalized after the Patriots added WR Chris Hogan and TE Martellus Bennett to provide much-needed depth in the receiving corps. Capable of playing both inside and outside, Hogan has a fantasy ceiling that stretches far beyond Amendola's.
Of course, Hogan will still have to compete with 32-year-old Nate Washington as well as 2013 second-rounder Aaron Dobson, who has thus far been a huge disappointment but reportedly looked good this offseason. Keep in mind that the Patriots gave Hogan a 3-year, $12 million contract that includes $7 million in guarantees -- low-end No. 2 WR money. Amendola had to accept a pay cut to stick around, and Washington is essentially playing for the veteran's minimum. This isn't the last time you'll hear me talk about Chris Hogan, especially if you pick up a copy of the 2016 RotoWire Football magazine, which is already available for pre-order and expected to ship in mid-July.
Dolphins
Miami is looking quite healthy, with the only significant injury from the offseason being a seemingly minor leg issue suffered by third-round rookie Kenyan Drake (6-1, 210), who should be fine for camp. Jay Ajayi is the clear favorite for lead-back duties and boasts a capable three-down skillset (50 receptions for Boise St. in 2014), but there was significant pre-draft concern about the durability of his knees, which explains why he dropped to the fifth round of the 2015 NFL Draft, despite being pegged as a 2nd/3rd-round talent by most observers.
Drake, on the other hand, was pegged by many as a likely 4th or 5th-rounder, following a college career at Alabama that saw him serve as a chance-of-pace option behind bigger backs Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Undeterred, the Dolphins were drawn to Drake's explosiveness along with his potential in the passing game, perhaps viewing him as a perfect complement to the more powerful Ajayi.
The Miami receiving corps looks pretty settled, with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills presumably locked in as the top receivers while Jordan Cameron will get another crack at the starting tight end job. Rookie third-rounder Leonte Carroo might be able to put some pressure on Stills with a strong camp, but either way, Landry and Parker will likely hog the targets. Parker is an extremely popular Year 2 breakout candidate, having already performed at a WR2 level down the stretch of his injury-marred rookie season. He has the physical profile of a No. 1 wideout, along with a strong college track record and a reputation for being unusually polished for a young receiver.
Jets
The story remains much the same for Gang Green, with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick still unsigned as the two sides appear to be far apart on terms. Given his lack of alternatives, Fitzpatrick will probably concede that staying with the Jets is his best option, even if it's only on a one-year deal. He basically needed everything to go right to reach last season's numbers, but the Jets will still look foolish if they let him get away, given that the rest of the roster appears to be playoff-caliber or at least something close to it.
On the defensive side, the Jets may need Leonard Williams to improve on his fantastic rookie season, as Muhammad Wilkerson (leg/contract) and Sheldon Richardson (suspension) could both be absent or sub-100 percent at the beginning of the season. Given the team's lack of proven pass rushers at OLB, it's imperative the Jets' defensive line is one of the two or three best in the league. Williams, the sixth overall pick last year, appears to be a superstar in the making, but he'll probably still need some help. If the Jets can get Williams, Wilkerson and Richardson playing together at full strength at some point in the season, it shouldn't matter if their linebackers aren't able to help with the pass rush.
Also of note: The team has very shaky pass-catching depth behind the (admittedly awesome) leading trio of Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and Matt Forte. There may not be anyone likely to gain fantasy relevance, but in real-life terms, the Jets need some contribution from guys like Quincy Enunwa, Jeremy Ross, Kenbrell Thompkins and TE Jace Amaro. 2015 second-rounder Devin Smith (torn ACL) seems destined to enter Week 1 on the PUP list, which would rule him out for the first six weeks.
Bills
The Bills may have taken the toughest blow of any team this offseason, with Sammy Watkins needing surgery to repair stress fractures in his foot. The situation wasn't reported until mid-May, but it turns out Watkins had surgery back in April and it was kept under wraps. According to TSN, Watkins expects to be ready for training camp, though he did admit that he'll likely be eased into action the first few days to make sure his foot is in fact okay. He's believed to have suffered a Jones fracture, a common injury for NFL wideouts that typically requires 8-12 weeks of recovery. Given the rough timetable, it's entirely possible Watkins will still enjoy a normal training camp. However, foot fractures have a high risk of re-injury and/or complications, often requiring follow-up surgery. Viewed by many as a borderline first-rounder prior to the injury, Watkins will be one of the most closely monitored NFL players in August. He was insanely dominant down the stretch last season, posting high-end WR1 numbers in a run-heavy offense. Watkins is a really, really phenomenally good football player….in case you were wondering.
This is a Rex Ryan team, so obviously one sidelined superstar won't suffice when it comes to interesting happenings. Happy to oblige, second-year RB Karlos Williams showed up to the offseason program somewhere between "out of shape" and "downright fat". Perhaps a bit cocky after notching 5.6 YPC and nine touchdowns in just 11 games as a rookie, the 6-foot-1 Williams has a target weight of 230 pounds. He said he should be back in shape for training camp, but it's quite possible he won't actually reach his target weight until camp is well under way, in which case rookie fifth-rounder Jonathan Williams might push for a role.
The situation bears close watching, as the Bills led the NFL in rushing yards, YPC and rushing TDs last season, and their starter is a soon-to-be 28-year-old LeSean McCoy, who while still effective when healthy, has a lot of tread on his tires and missed four games last year. A "healthy" season for Shady would likely still involve a whole bunch of nagging lower-body injuries. I'm not sure if the Bills will support an RB1 or a pair of RB2s, but there will be serious value in this backfield. And don't sleep on the rookie Williams, who only dropped to Round 5 because of his shaky injury history. Between McCoy's wiggle, Jonathan Williams' power and Karlos Williams' size/speed combo, this backfield certainly doesn't lack for talent.
If you aren't convinced, consider that the Bills also have a strong offensive line, as well as a quarterback whose running ability can open up lanes for his teammates. Back-side defenders often have to beware of Tyrod Taylor, which prevents them from crashing down on running plays, potentially opening up cut-back lanes for McCoy and Co. Whatever else you might say about him, McCoy's famous change-of-direction skills looked just fine when he was healthy last year.
