This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
NFL Futures Bets: 2024 Lions Win Totals
Betting team wins, and other full-season NFL futures, requires patience. If placing a bet in the preseason, the payout usually won't occur until January. That said, there are edges to be gained in the betting market. The more knowledge we have about each team's talent on each side of the football provides an edge.
In addition, projecting potential intangibles can add value. Examples of intangibles are teams that add a new coach/coordinator, or teams that made multiple moves to the less glamorous positions on the field.
For those who followed this article series I wrote last season, we projected nine teams, winning six for a 66.7 percent win rate. Overall, the series was a moneymaker. This year, we'll look to continue that win percentage.
In this article, we'll look at the Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins at -115 odds. These odds, as well as all other NFL win totals odds, can be found at BetMGM Sportsbook.
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Lions Outlook: Offense
The Lions scored the fifth-most points in the NFL last year. This team may be better this season. Detroit's offensive line remains excellent. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has set up an offense that shreds zone defenses, and the league currently plays zone 73 percent of the time.
In terms of players, we reasonably know what we can expect from Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery. However, we may see a big second-year leap in production from Jahmyr Gibbs, who is one of the most explosive runners in the league. Also, Sam LaPorta may have had a great rookie season, but he failed to reach 900 yards. It is possible that the tight end takes another step forward.
Finally, Jameson Williams has done very little in two years, but this is the first preseason that he will not be dealing with injury and/or suspension. Overall, even if we see the same offense from 2023, they will be excellent, but there is a real chance we see a better version.
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Lions Outlook: Defense
Detroit allowed the eighth-most points in the league in 2023. Although Detroit has Aidan Hutchinson, the pass rush was often inconsistent. In the offseason, the team brought in defensive linemen Marcus Davenport and DJ Reader. As a result, the unit may be more effective.
That said, the real weakness of this defense was the secondary. Simply put, the cornerbacks did not play well. It's possible they will show improvement in 2024. Last year, Emmanuel Moseley was injured and missed the entire season. The veteran is expected back. In addition, the NFL Draft couldn't have worked out much better, as the Lions added cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw. Even if this trio of corners doesn't play to expectations, the secondary can't be worse than it was last year. With the potential of this defense making it into the top 20, that would be enough for the offense to carry the team.
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Detroit Lions Schedule
Even though the NFC North appears to be improving as a whole, the Lions should be the class of the division. The team has a great chance of winning the majority of those six games. In addition, the Lions face the AFC South.
Aside from the Texans, Detroit appears to be significantly better than those remaining opponents. The other division on the schedule is the NFC West. Aside from the 49ers, Detroit stacks up well in the remaining contests.
Best Bet for 2024 Lions Win Total
The recommendation is betting the Detroit Lions over 10.5 wins at -115 odds. These odds can be found at BetMGM Sportsbook. Last year, the team won 12 games. There is an excellent chance that they will be better on defense.
In addition, the offense is one of the better units in the league, though there may be room for growth. Detroit is in a Super Bowl window. The schedule has a number of challenging games, but this is far from a problematic schedule. Expect Detroit to be a very focused team after missing out on a Super Bowl due to their second-half meltdown against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Matching last year's 12 wins seems reasonable.
